NHL Playoff Picture 2011: Analyzing Boston's Possible First-Round Matchups
The Boston Bruins are one of the hottest teams in the Eastern conference, and have already clinched the Northeast division crown.
With a division title secured, the Bruins are guaranteed at least the third seed in the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The chances of the Bruins catching the Flyers and Capitals, who are number one and two in the East respectively, is unlikely.
As the third seed in the East, there are three possible teams the Bruins could play in the first round.
They are the arch-rival Montreal Canadiens, the Buffalo Sabres and the New York Rangers.
Boston has had different levels of success against each of these teams this season, and each present different matchup problems for the Bruins.
Now let's analyze each of the Bruins' potential first round opponents, starting with the Canadiens.
Boston Bruins Vs. Montreal Canadiens: Regular Season Background
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(Montreal won the season series 4-2)
The Boston Bruins and the Montreal Canadiens took their historic rivalry to a new level this season.
After losing the first three games to Montreal this season, the Bruins took the fourth meeting 8-6, in one of the most exciting regular season games in a long time. This intense battle was full of fights, goals and penalty boxes filled to capacity with sometimes five players in the sin bin at once.
The next showdown nearly a month later in early March had one of the most controversial moments of the NHL season.
In a battle for the puck, Bruins captain and defenseman Zdeno Chara checked Canadiens forward Max Pacioretty into the turnbuckle along the boards next to the team benches.
Pacioretty suffered a fractured vertebrae and a concussion on the play, but may return for the playoffs. The hit by Chara angered Canadiens fans like never before, and the Montreal police department was receiving many calls asking for Chara to be arrested.
Chara said after the game that he did not mean to hurt Pacioretty, and that his history shows he is not a dirty player. The NHL agreed with him, and chose not to suspend or fine the Bruins captain for the hit, further angering the Montreal fans.
With the Canadiens coming to Boston for the regular season series finale on March 23, hockey fans expected the game to be very chippy.
But the Canadiens showed little heart, passion and effort as the Bruins cruised past them 7-0.
Breaking Down a Bruins Vs. Canadiens Playoff Matchup
2 of 6The Bruins dominated the Canadiens in their last matchup in March, and took two of the last three to finish the season series.
Boston's goaltending is the best in the NHL, with Vezina trophy front-runner Tim Thomas and last year's surprise Tuukka Rask both playing well right now.
The Bruins also have a better offense than the Canadiens right now, with more speed and muscle on each line.
Prized offseason acquisition Nathan Horton has played very well against the Canadiens in the last three meetings, with seven points in those games.
His linemate Milan Lucic has also dominated the physical aspect of the rivalry, but has also scored over 30 goals this season, the first time he's accomplished that feat.
Canadiens goalie Carey Price has had a tremendous season, but has struggled mightily at TD Garden in the last three games against the Bruins.
He was pulled from the March 23 contest during the third period after giving up five goals.
With the Bruins' edge in scoring depth, as well as their physical dominance over the Canadiens, they will be able to eliminate Montreal in five or six games.
Having home ice for the series is also a major factor in the Bruins chances of beating the Canadiens in the first round.
Boston Bruins Vs. Buffalo Sabres: Regular Season Background
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(Buffalo won the season series 4-2)
The Bruins and Sabres met in the first round of last year's Eastern playoffs, with Boston overcoming the Sabres 4-2.
The Sabres won the Northeast division last year behind Ryan Miller's outstanding play in net, but his form as well as his team's form has declined this season.
Luckily for Buffalo fans, the Sabres look like they'll earn a playoff spot despite their rocky season.
The Sabres are currently eighth in the East standings, one point behind the New York Rangers and Montreal Canadies, and three ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Sabres took the season series 4-2, winning the last four meetings after losing the opening two.
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Breaking Down a Bruins Vs. Sabres Playoff Matchup
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The Sabres' excellent 2010 season ended at the TD Garden in game six of the first round last season, and with the Bruins having home ice this year, the Sabres could find their season end in Boston again.
The Bruins took advantage of their home games in last season's series, winning three of their four games against the Sabres at home.
The Bruins once again have the goaltending edge with Thomas and Rask playing better than Ryan Miller.
The Sabres offense has been led by Thomas Vanek with 67 points, who has played well versus the Bruins in the past.
But Boston's defense will be too much for the Sabres. Chara and newly acquired defenseman Tomas Kaberle will own the blue line and dominate the powerplay.
Despite the Sabres' success against Boston this season, the Bruins are playing well right now, and do not have any major injuries dampening their playoff hopes.
Ryan Miller was not able to stop the Bruins in the finest year of his career in 2010, and will be completely over-matched this season.
In a first-round series against the Sabres, the Bruins win in five games at the most.
Boston Bruins Vs. New York Rangers: Regular Season Breakdown
5 of 6(New York won the season series 3-1)
The New York Rangers have had great success against the Boston Bruins over the last two seasons, with each game being a defensive battle with little offensive fireworks.
The Bruins have real difficulty versus the Rangers in third periods, and are unable to close out games. In Monday night's game, the Bruins had a 3-0 lead, but then allowed five unanswered goals in a 5-3 loss.
The reason for the lack of goals is the goaltending. The Rangers are a team Boston does not have a goaltending advantage over; in fact Rangers starter and Vezina candidate Henrik Lundqvist may be better than Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask.
On a team with not much goal scoring ability, Lundqvist has carried the Rangers to the eighth seed in the Eastern conference.
His play against the Bruins this year has been phenomenal.
No matter how much better either one of these teams may be, the New York vs. Boston rivalry plays a factor, and creates a physical battle each time.
New York is currently tied with Montreal for sixth in the East with 91 points.
Breaking Down a Bruins Vs. Rangers Playoff Matchup
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A first-round series with the Rangers would be very tough for the Bruins. After dropping three-of-four games to the Blueshirts this season, Boston has to worry about goal scoring to beat New York.
Rangers netminder Henrik Lundqvist has been excellent against the Bruins this season, and is a one-man penalty killing machine.
The Rangers are also just as physical as the Bruins, a phase of the game the Canadiens and Sabres are weaker in when compared to Boston.
The Bruins would have the home ice, but the Rangers won both meetings at the TD Garden this season.
The Rangers do not have a lot of offense, but if they can score a bit better than they usually do, they have a great shot at beating the Bruins in six or seven games.
With Lundqvist in net, the Rangers are never out of a game. Boston's own star goalie Tim Thomas must match his Swedish counterpart if the Bruins are to have a chance.
These two teams are pretty even, so a seven-game series might be a likely outcome should they meet in the first round in a few weeks.
Right now, I'd have to take the Rangers in seven games.
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