NCAA Championship Game 2011: Can Kemba Walker Carry UConn to Victory?
It's been a long season and we are finally down to the last two teams left standing. Neither team was expected to be here, heck no one really expected either team to make the tournament halfway through the year. Isn't that what makes college basketball so great though? All it takes is a team to start clicking at the right moment and five games later, you are in the National Championship game.
Basketball is a team game, but today we are going to look at the individual matchups that have the possibility of bringing each team to victory. Through mathematical calculations, I have figured that winning a matchup is good for 12 points during the championship game.
Let's see who the 2011 NCAA National Championship winner will be!
10. Pure Talent
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When looking at "pure talent," we aren't looking at the potential of each team. In five years, one team's players might all be playing in the NBA while the other team's players are all working at Best Buy. Five years from now doesn't matter, only the present matters for this game.
With that said, Connecticut has an overwhelming amount of talent on their team. Kemba Walker has been one of the best players in the country for the entire year. Jeremy Lamb has had a fantastic freshman season. Butler does have a great combo in Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack, but it is the depth of the Huskies talent that is impressive.
And the winner is...
Connecticut by a long shot.
Score—Butler 0, UCONN 12
9. Experience
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Experience is huge during March Madness. We hear about it every year from the analysts, "Watch out for such and such a team because they have been here before." Wasn't that why everyone was picking Duke as a favorite to win the whole tournament?
The Butler Bulldogs are in their second straight Championship Game and returns a good portion of their team from last year. Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack both played huge roles during last year's game against Duke. Butler knows what it takes to win this game. Also, Connecticut starts three freshman and a sophomore.
And the winner is...
Butler is returning to the Championship Game and their experience has been key to them making it this far.
Score—Butler 12, UCONN 12
8. Momentum
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Three out of the four final four teams won their conference tournament, and the fourth team made it to the Championship game of their conference tournament. Momentum plays a huge factor during March Madness as it is all about a team getting "hot" at the right moment.
Both Connecticut and Butler are coming in massive winning streaks. Butler has won 14 straight games and Connecticut has won 10 straight games. Both teams are playing with great energy and determination. Both teams are playing great basketball. Both teams are "hot" at the right time.
And the winner is...
Even though Butler has a longer winning streak, Connecticut's winning streak is more impressive. They won the Big East tournament, winning five games in five days, and haven't slowed down since.
Score - Butler 12, UCONN 24
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7. Coaching: Brad Stevens vs. Jim Calhoun
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With the talent in college basketball continuing to improve each year, it seems that less focus is placed on the coaches. However, I would take a team with great coaching and little talent over a team with great talent and little coaching nine times out of ten.
There may be no better coach at getting the most out of his players than Brad Stevens. I mean just look at that guy. He looks like he has a laboratory in the basement of his mom's house where he concocts magic potions to improve his players talents. All joking aside, it is a statement of Stevens' coaching ability that Butler is once again in the National Championship game.
On the other hand, Jim Calhoun is no coaching slouch. He has coached two teams to National Championships since 1999. That is more than Mike Krzyzewski has won during that same span of time.
And the winner is....
All respect to Jim Calhoun, but what Brad Stevens is doing with Butler right now is incredible. He might be the best coach in the country.
Score—Butler 24, UCONN 24
6. Sixth Man: Ronald Nored vs. Shabazz Napier
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Both of these players bring a good amount of energy off the bench for their respective teams. They both average playing over twenty minutes a game and although neither of them will overpower you, they are important role players.
Shabazz Napier has incredible poise for only being a freshman. Even though he comes off the bench, he seems to always be on the floor at the end of games. His ability to drive to the hoop and finish around the rim has been vital to the success of Connecticut. He sometimes gets himself into trouble by taking poor shots when he should pass out to an open player on the perimeter, but his finishing ability allows the Huskies to live with his mental lapses.
Ronald Nored doesn't do any one thing great, but does everything well. He can pass, shoot, drive and rebound well, but he makes his living as a great defender. Don't be surprised to find Nored shadowing Kemba Walker while he is on the floor.
And the winner is...
Ronald Nored is a great role player, but Shabazz Napier gets the nod here. His play making ability is dynamite and he gets teams into foul trouble when he can get into the lane, which is often.
Score—Butler 24, UCONN 36
5. Center: Andrew Smith vs. Alex Oriakhi
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Neither of these players are going to lead his team in scoring, but both of their intangibles are extremely important for their teams. They are both big bodies who are true post players. They both play defense and they both rebound. They are both also prone to getting into foul trouble.
Alex Oriakhi is a very athletic center who rebounds and blocks shots. He is averaging just under 10 points per game, but it is his defense and hustle that gets him into the starting lineup. He would be better used as a power forward, but makes up for his lack of height with his intensity and athleticism. He has the ability to completely control the paint on the defensive side of the ball.
Andrew Smith doesn't play a ton of minutes, but while he is in the game, he gives Butler the height advantage over many teams. He is 6'11" and takes up space in the paint. He isn't a real offensive threat, but if you leave him alone or forget to box him out, he will make you pay. He does average nearly three fouls a game, and it will be a necessity for him to stay out of foul trouble.
And the winner is...
Andrew Smith is a good role player, but Alex Oriakhi is a force to be reckoned with on defense and could ultimately be the key to a Connecticut victory. If Oriakhi can be a stopper in the paint against both Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard, Connecticut has a good chance to win.
Score—Butler 24, UCONN 48
4. Power Forward: Matt Howard vs. Tyler Olander
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This matchup could be devastating for Connecticut. Matt Howard is a senior who is playing the best basketball of his career, while Tyler Olander is a freshman who starts, but spends more time on the bench than on the floor.
Matt Howard is having a huge year and was the Horizon League Player of the Year. However, his tournament has been even more impressive as he has taken Butler on his back and hit big shot after big shot. He is a big body who can step outside and hit the three or bang down low and score in the paint. He is a monster on the boards and plays with great intensity. His one weakness is that he finds himself in foul trouble all too often.
Tyler Olander plays under 10 minutes a game and averages less than two points. He is only a freshman and even though he starts, he is quickly replaced. He does have good size and ability, but doesn't see the floor enough to make an impact.
And the winner is...
Matt Howard by a long hair from his shaggy head. This one wasn't even close and if Olander has to cover Howard for an extended period of time, look for Butler to take full advantage.
Score—Butler 36, UCONN 48
3. Small Forward: Chase Stigall vs. Roscoe Smith
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Chase Stigall is technically a guard and as soon as Connecticut takes out Tyler Olander for Shabazz Napier, he won't be guarding a bigger man. Both these players are key role guys for their teams.
Chase Stigall won't impress anyone with his athletic ability, but he is a fundamentally sound basketball player who hardly makes mistakes. Since he was put into the starting lineup, Butler hasn't lost a game and even though he doesn't play many minutes, he doesn't lose games for Butler.
Roscoe Smith is another freshman that starts for Connecticut, but he gets big time minutes and has a ton of ability. He doesn't score much, but he can heat up as he scored a career high 17 points against Bucknell earlier in the tournament. He is a tall and lengthy player who is a great offensive and defensive rebounder for his size.
And the winner is...
Chase Stigall won't make many mistakes, but he also won't win any games for Butler. Roscoe Smith is a much better overall player and will be a key player on the boards for Connecticut.
Score—Butler 36, UCONN 60
2. Shooting Guard: Shelvin Mack vs. Jeremy Lamb
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This might be the best individual matchup in the whole game. Both players are having huge tournaments for their teams. Both players have stepped up their games to a whole new level during the tournament. If either player has a bad game, his team is most likely going to end up losing. That is how important both these players are to their teams.
Shelvin Mack is having a huge tournament on the offensive end of the floor. He is averaging nearly 22 points per game and is lighting it up from three point range. He has the ability to completely take over games for Butler and when he does, watch out because Butler is at their best when Mack is hitting his shots. He won't impress anyone with his athletic ability, but he knows how to score and often scores when Butler needs a basket the most.
Jeremy Lamb had a fantastic regular season for Connecticut as a freshman, but has really elevated his play to another level during the tournament. He is averaging 17 points per game and has a silky smooth shot. However, he does more than just score for the Huskies. He is terrific on the boards, a good passer, and good defender. He is going to be an absolute star in college, if he stays another year.
And the winner is...
Jeremy Lamb has been fantastic, but Shelvin Mack has been nearly unstoppable at times. If you add in his experience, he squeaks out a victory.
Score—Butler 48, UCONN 60
1. Point Guard: Shawn Vanzant vs. Kemba Walker
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I hate to say this, but Shawn Vanzant is probably going to get burned during this game. Kemba Walker has been one of the best players throughout the whole season, and seems to have only gotten better during the tournament.
Shawn Vanzant is a quality basketball player with a high basketball IQ. He rarely turns the ball over, he doesn't make dumb plays, and he is a mature player. He is a quality defender and has, at times, been able to score in bunches. The best thing he brings to Butler is his experience.
Kemba Walker is an absolute stud and is making a case to be a top five pick in this year's NBA draft. Before the tournament, people doubted his ability to do anything but score, but he is showing everyone that he can not only pass with the best of them, but rebound also. However, his biggest asset to the Huskies is his ability to score and to score often. He seems to know exactly when to turn up the energy and can score from anywhere on the court.
And the winner is...
Kemba Walker has been the tournament MVP and will continue his dominance of the tournament during the championship game.
Score—Butler 48, UCONN 72
Final Score: Butler 48, UCONN 72
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This game has the possibility to be closer than the score above shows, but don't be surprised if Connecticut jumps out to an early lead and continues to cruise to a National Championship.
Kemba Walker will be named the MVP of the Final Four, but Jeremy Lamb will have a huge game also. Look for Shelvin Mack to have a poor shooting night as he looks to carry Butler on his back too often during the game. Matt Howard will have three fouls early in the second half and will be a non-factor for Butler.
All these factors together gives Jim Calhoun his third National Championship since 1999.
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