UFC's Brock Lesnar vs. Jon Jones: Who Wins and Why?

February was a crazy month for Jon Jones, as he defeated fellow rising star Ryan Bader in punishing fashion, earning himself a shot at the UFC light heavyweight championship.

Things got even wilder in March when he destroyed the legendary Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in a one-sided beat down, earning himself the title in the process.

The future looks bright for the 205-pound superstar, but many experts are predicting that his frame may eventually get too large to remain in the light heavyweight division. In addition to that point, Jones hasn’t even been challenged in a fight within the division yet, so a move up in weight class may be the logical next step to create some real competition for this 23-year-old stud.

While other fighters transition between the lower weight classes fairly frequently, few fighters make the successful move from light heavyweight to heavyweight. The difference in size of opponents is just too much.

Jones would be going from fighting a fairly small light heavyweight in Shogun to woolly mammoth-like creatures like Brock Lesnar.

So how would a fight between those two actually play out?

One interesting factor is that even given Lesnar’s size, he would be at a disadvantage both in height, as well as reach. Jones stands 6’4” to Lesnar’s 6’3”, and his UFC-record 84.5-inch reach is longer than Brock’s 81-inch reach. While Jones has the advantage in these areas, it is a much smaller difference than Jones has had in his previous fights.

For comparison's purposes, in Jones’ last win, where he took the title from Shogun Rua, he possessed a three-inch height advantage and nearly a nine-inch reach advantage!

Jones’ length could be a factor in a battle with Lesnar, but it would not be nearly as big of an advantage as he has had in his previous fights.

In terms of striking skill, Lesnar may be in for a rude awakening, as he admits being rocked from a desperation knee by Frank Mir. He was also noticeably out on his feet against both Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez.

Jones doesn’t have quite the striking power of Velasquez or Carwin, but his inventive strikes are enough to throw off even the most experienced fighter, let alone someone who only has seven professional fights, like Lesnar.

A part of the game we haven’t seen much of from either Lesnar or Jones is their ability to achieve submissions off their backs. Both are wrestlers with impressive control from the top, but major questions remain about their ability to both avoid damage as well as finish a fight while in a less dominant position.

Lesnar was submitted early in his career by Mir, and while he has certainly improved his overall game since then, there are still noticeably times in his fights when he looks to be a bit excited. During those times, Brock can finish fights, but he may also find himself in a tough spot against a fighter with the long limbs of Jones.

The submission advantage would almost certainly have to go to Jones, as he has proven that he has the skills to finish his opponents with three wins in his career coming by way of guillotine choke.

But the biggest question in this potential fight is how Jones’ normally intimidating strength would stack up against the grizzly bear that is Lesnar.

Jones has humiliated his opponents so far in his young career, tossing them down with slams and suplexes, while maintaining incredible composure for someone with relatively little experience in the sport.

Fighters like Stephan Bonnar, Brandon Vera, Bader and Rua have looked like rag dolls against the world’s current top-ranked light heavyweight.

But Lesnar is a freak of nature.

Lesnar hasn’t missed the 265-pound weight limit for the heavyweight division yet in his career, but rumors are that he has been between 280-290 pounds when he actually steps into the cage the day after weigh-ins.

Jones is a very big light heavyweight who walks around at somewhere near 230 pounds between fights, but even if he were able to walk into the cage at 230 pounds of muscle, he would still be at over a 50-pound disadvantage against Lesnar.

While Jon Jones was a national JUCO champion wrestler, it’s Brock Lesnar who brings the superior pure wrestling pedigree to the table as a former NCAA Division I champion.

This, combined with Lesnar’s massive pure size advantage, would likely make for a very tough night for Jones, who has very little real fight experience working off his back—not to mention working off his back against a world-class wrestler who looks like he ate Urijah Faber for breakfast.

Jones has the skills to match up with almost anyone in the world, but Lesnar is simply too big and too strong for the 23-year-old.

Perhaps if Jones went on the Alistair Overeem “horse meat” diet, he’d be able to achieve the kind of physique he would need to challenge Lesnar, but for right now, the smart money would be on the former UFC heavyweight champion in this dream fight.