NBA Playoff Predictions 2011: Rating the Chances for Each Team to Be Upset
Every year in the NBA playoffs, some team ranked in the bottom half of the playoff picture pushes one in the top to the brink, most evident with the historic Dallas Mavericks-Golden State Warriors series back in 2007, when the eighth-seeded Warriors knocked off the top-seeded Mavericks.
These types of series have forced the teams in the top half of the bracket not to overlook their lower-seeded counterparts, as an upset could come at any time.
Upsets may not come as often as they do in the NCAA tournament, as the best-of-seven series makes it more difficult for a lesser team to move on, but they do come around every so often.
This year, some teams should have no problems making it past the first round, but others should be keen to watch out for the danger that is lurking in the bottom of the bracket.
Teams with fire in their eyes, looking like they could take down a higher-seeded team, include New York, Philadelphia and pretty much every Western Conference team, as they are much deeper than those in the East.
So, for the love of conjecture and predictions, I have ranked the top four teams in each conference in order of the likelihood that each will be upset in the first round of the playoffs, killing their dreams of winning a title, at least for this year.
8. Chicago Bulls
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The Chicago Bulls are sitting quite pretty as long as they don't go into a slump over the next two weeks and lose their No. 1 seed.
Getting the No. 1 seed in the East means they will end up playing a series against either Indiana, Charlotte or Milwaukee, meaning their first round might as well be a bye.
Chicago is a combined 9-3 against those three teams, and since the Bulls have had a completely healthy team, they are 14-4, so I think it is safe to say they are on a roll.
As of right now, it is a death sentence for any team that is slated to face the Bulls in the first round, and I would bet anything that the Bulls win.
An eighth seed beating the Bulls as they are right now in a seven-game series would be one of the most stunning upsets in the history of the NBA.
7. Los Angeles Lakers
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The opponent the Lakers are currently set up to face should be cause for some alarm, as the Portland Trail Blazers look like one of the best teams at the bottom of the Western Conference.
However, the Lakers are on a murderous tear, as they have lost only one game since the All-Star break and their infamous loss to the Cavaliers.
Los Angeles has beaten Portland twice in that span, and three times in three tries overall, with a game still left to be played next Friday.
As of right now, I don't think it matters much who they play in the first round (it could be one of four teams at this point) when you consider the roll that they are on and the way they have beaten opponents.
Los Angeles has allowed only 91.75 points per game since the All-Star break, holding their opponents under 90 points 10 times in 16 games.
If San Antonio continues to struggle over the next few weeks, it is possible that Los Angeles could steal the No. 1 spot away from the Spurs, giving the Lakers an even more favorable matchup.
6. San Antonio Spurs
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Obviously, at this point, the Spurs are anything but invincible, as their three best players are all battling different ailments.
The Spurs may be banged up, but there is nothing too serious at this point to make me think that they will be limping around in the playoffs. Sure, they're getting up there in years, but they are all competitors who will do what it takes to get the job done.
For more than a decade, the Spurs and Tim Duncan have been the most professional team in the NBA, and one of the most hard-working to boot.
Duncan, along with the stubborn and hard-working Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, would have to get hit by a bus to be visibly affected by an injury in the playoffs.
It is for that reason that I can see them easily breezing through the first round regardless of who they may play and in spite of their injuries.
5. Boston Celtics
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I have seen everything going on in Boston, with the Celtics' rough month and dire need for a big body down low to at least fill space that Nenad Krstic just can't fill, and I still have confidence in them in the first round.
The Celtics are 8-7 this month and have been struggling to get their game in tune, as one night their offense will be explosive and their defense lazy and the next they will have a stout defense and a lethargic offense.
Whenever I think about them getting upset in the first round, I think back to a year ago, when they looked this way for the entire season, everyone had written them off and they stormed back to win the Eastern Conference.
They have a team full of veterans who know how to dial up their production for the playoffs and a coach that will not let them overlook a first-round series against the Knicks or the 76ers.
Boston just knows how to do what it takes to win in the playoffs.
4. Miami Heat
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One part of me looks at the run Miami has gone on since beating the Lakers at the beginning of the month and makes me think the Heat will have no problems with whichever team they face in the first round.
Another part of me looks at their glaring weaknesses (point guard and center along with some depth problems) and makes me think they are ripe for the upset in the first round.
Facing off against the Knicks would be interesting for Miami, as the series would not only include a huge amount of fanfare that would come along with LeBron James going into New York for the playoffs, but also the caveat that they are 2-2 against the Knicks, one of those losses being to the current 'Mare-Melo Knicks.
Sure, the Knicks have had their struggles, losing nine of 10 before reeling off two in a row, but they also have two superstars who want to prove they can compete with the best teams in the East before they even become a complete team.
Against the 76ers, I think the biggest problem would be the possibility of Miami overlooking Philadelphia, as they have a coach that doesn't exactly command respect and a team like Philly doesn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of opponents.
However, Philly has an incredibly stout defense and a scrappy group of players that is overachieving, a combination that can be dangerous for any opponent.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
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Let me get this straight right off the bat—Oklahoma City is a terrific team that is on a great run as of this moment, winning 14 of its last 16 games. The biggest reason I think an upset could be in the works for the Thunder is the team they are going to have to face.
As it stands now, the Thunder are almost certainly going to end up playing the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs.
Denver is a team with enough chips on its shoulder to fill up a can of Pringles.
The players remaining there have been shunned by a superstar that didn't want to play with them anymore and the players that were shipped there were shunned by a team that thought they were expendable.
Like their head coach, George Karl, who overcame neck and throat cancer, the players are battling against the odds, and they want to win with everything they have.
The Nuggets are a frightening team, and anyone who has to face them should be at least a bit frightened.
2. Orlando Magic
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The Magic are a team that is trying to stay among the elite teams in the East, and as long as they have Dwight Howard, they will be up there, but there is no question that they are not as good as they have been in the past.
They have surrounded Howard with a flurry of three-point shooters, and without Howard, the team would devolve into a defenseless (literally) shooting team like the Phoenix Suns.
The biggest reason I have them so high on this list is because it seems like the Hawks are an easy team to overlook this season, as they have obviously fallen out of the elite in the East, and seem to be on a decline.
Atlanta may be on the decline, but the Hawks are still a good team with a few great players that could make some amazing things happen on any given night.
Plus, Orlando has Stan Van Gundy, the Shaq-titled "Master of Panic," at the helm of the team, and at times, the Magic do seem to let the pressure get to them under Van Gundy.
Howard is the rock for the Magic, but if the Hawks can make that rock work, they could end up punching their ticket to the second round, leaving Orlando in the dust in the process.
1. Dallas Mavericks
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For some reason, it seems that the Mavericks are on the verge of being upset ever since they lost to Golden State in that ill-fated 2007 series.
Since 2007, the Mavericks have lost to both the Warriors and Spurs in the first round, teams that were eighth and seventh seeds, respectively (in 2008 and 2009 they were lower seeds, winning once and losing once).
So, in the past four years, Dallas has been bounced out of the playoffs in the first round, making the Mavericks seem extremely susceptible to another first-round exit.
They would be lucky to end up with New Orleans as their first-round opponent, as the Hornets seem like a much less dangerous team without David West, even though Carl Landry is filling in nicely.
The worst nightmare for the Mavericks, however, would be having to face the Trail Blazers in the first round.
Facing Portland would be, to quote Yogi (Berra, not The Bear), "Deja vu all over again."
Dallas would have to survive a series against a team with the most raucous fans since Golden State made its run in 2007 and the roof nearly blew off the top of the Oracle.
The Mavericks would be going up against a team with an All-Star on its bench (Brandon Roy) and an All-Star in its starting five (Gerald Wallace), along with another All-Star snub (LaMarcus Aldridge).
If Dallas isn't careful, Portland could be blazing a trail to the second round right through Mark Cuban's court-side seats.
