NBA Playoff Predictions: Which First Round Matchups Will End in Sweeps
In the NBA, making the playoffs guarantees your fan base at least two more home games.
Some teams are lucky to be given one.
With under ten games to go in the regular season, teams are solidifying playoff berths and jockeying for position in the seeding. While a few of the first round series will be exciting, and there may be an upset, like last year's No. 7 seed San Antonio Spurs over No. 2 seed Dallas Mavericks, do not expect to see the same level of chaos made popular in college basketball's March Madness.
I'm here to rank the possibility of a sweep happening in each of the first round series, based on the current playoff standings.
8. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
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Since the All-Star Break, the Denver Nuggets have been one of the hottest teams in the league.
Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, two of the pieces they received from the New York Knicks, are now in the top three scorers for the Nuggets. Nene Hilario is showing he can be a franchise center and J.R. Smith shows flashes of brilliance off the bench.
Pair this all with the always steady Arron Afflalo and the dynamic point guard duo of Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton, and it's easy to see why the Nuggets are so difficult to guard.
I didn't even mention Kenyon Martin, Al Harrington and Chris "Birdman" Anderson who all provide the Nuggets with their own unique abilities.
Even though the Nuggets are filled with talent, having strength at every position twice over, the Oklahoma City Thunder have two of the best players in the entire NBA. As shown in the FIBA World Championships last summer, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are both skilled closers and they gave the Los Angeles Lakers all types of trouble last year in the NBA playoffs.
Along with the two stars, the Thunder also have seven quality players who either provide defensive toughness or offensive output. Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, Serge Ibaka, Nazr Mohammed and Nick Collison give the Thunder their defensive edge while James Harden contributes his scoring.
Eric Maynor is a solid, fundamental point guard off the bench, and now that Nate Robinson is healthy, the Thunder can look to the streaky guard for much needed offense.
The difference between Denver and Oklahoma City, is the Thunder have two superstars, and then a list of solid role players. Winning a playoff series is hard to do without a go to guy down the stretch.
The Nuggets lack this after losing Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, but still have enough talent on their roster to win one or two games in a series.
Also, winning in Denver is difficult to do. Expect this to be a six game series.
7. Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trailblazers
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The Dallas Mavericks have not traditionally had the most success in the playoffs.
They will have another difficult matchup on their hands in the Portland Trailblazers.
LaMarcus Aldridge has almost single-handedly kept the Trailblazers in the playoff picture. Now that Brandon Roy is back and Gerald Wallace has figured out his role, the Trailblazers are a team that the top of the Western Conference doesn't want to see in the first round.
The idea of sweeping the Trailblazers is unlikely. With Brandon Roy out for most of the season, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum developed into stronger players and have turned Portland into more than a two-man show.
Also, with the Dallas Mavericks history of early exits, I would not be shocked to see the Trailblazers pull this series out.
I give the edge to Dallas, since they have Dirk Nowitzki and a deep bench, but this will not be an easy four game series.
Note: Portland and the New Orleans Hornets currently have the same record. I have chosen to give the edge to the Trailblazers for the No. 6 seed, because of their depth of talent.
6. Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
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The Boston Celtics can not afford to play a long, physical series against the New York Knicks.
If the Celtics make it out of the first round of the playoffs, which they should, they will have 19 to 21 games ahead of them before winning the NBA title. Throw a seven game series against the Knicks onto that total, and I don't see how anyone could feel confident in the Celtics chances of winning for that long with their heavily fatigued roster.
Doc Rivers will have his team ready to play in this series. His veteran roster knows they can not afford to stretch this series out and that they will need all the rest they can get before playing the Miami Heat in the second round. The Heat will be coming off a short series against the Philadelphia 76ers and have a much younger core group of guys.
The problem for the Celtics is, the combination of Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups should lead to at least one victory in a playoff series. Even with the Celtics playing their best, look for the Knicks to push this to at least five games.
An interesting side note, the Celtics may be better off falling to the No. 3 seed in the playoffs. They would have a much easier time with Philadelphia than New York, and the Miami Heat could find themselves in a seven game series with the Knicks.
Also, there is no benefit to being the No. 1 seed for Boston. As the No. 1, they would have to play Dwight Howard and Orlando in the second round. With their championship hopes hanging on Shaquille O'Neal rather than Kendrick Perkins, the Celtics would be in danger of being completely drained and depleted before the Eastern Conference Finals.
5. Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
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Last year the Orlando Magic humiliated the Atlanta Hawks in a lopsided four game sweep.
In the year since the sweep, the Magic have upgraded at the guards by adding Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu to replace Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis
The Atlanta Hawks on the other hand? Kirk Hinrich replaces Mike Bibby.
I think the Magic are a dangerous team in the Eastern Conference. Now that Kendrick Perkins is out of Boston, no Eastern Conference playoff team has a guy who can guard Dwight Howard one on one. Jameer Nelson is having another solid season and Jason Richardson will hit the big shots in the playoffs that Vince Carter could not.
In all likelihood, this should be a sweep. However, the Magic have not been consistent this season and the Atlanta Hawks may have learned a thing or two from last year's embarrassing exit. Also, the Hawks did win the season series three games to one.
Expect this to go no more than five games.
4. San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
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Two months ago, this would have been a guaranteed sweep. Now, the matchup is a little more confusing.
Tim Duncan's health is key. If his injury is more serious than we are being told, the Memphis Grizzlies will have the advantage in the post with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Also, the Spurs need a healthy Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to handle Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo and Tony Allen.
The reason this will probably still be a sweep is because Rudy Gay has a season ending injury of his own. Without Gay, the Grizzlies are missing their go-to guy, and will not be able to win more than one or two games in this series.
The Spurs have surprised us all year long, so do not be shocked if they come out at full strength and win four games in a row by twenty points.
3. Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
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I wrote at the beginning of the season that the Philadelphia 76ers would be a playoff team because of Doug Collins.
Collins is a great coach for a young team, because he motivates his players to play hard every single game. This is why the 76ers almost always beat the bad teams and occasionally surprised the good ones.
However, in the playoffs, the bad teams are not in attendance and the good teams are always focused. The 76ers do not have enough firepower to combat Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh.
Expect this to be a sweep.
Note: If the Miami Heat end up playing the New York Knicks in the first round, I see that series going six or seven games.
2. Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
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The Chicago Bulls are a much better team than the Indiana Pacers.
The Bulls defeated the Pacers by double figures three out of the four times they played. Their only loss to the Pacers was by three points, in overtime, at Indiana.
Even in the loss, Derrick Rose scored 42 points.
The Pacers have no answer for Derrick Rose, no answer for Carlos Boozer and lack a dominant enough big man who would be able to overcome Joakim Noah's defense.
The Bulls are not a fluke, and will sweep whichever team falls into the eighth spot.
1. Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets
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Chris Paul deserves a lot of credit. If it weren't for him, this Hornets team would be nowhere near the playoff picture. He's held his team together, kept them competitive and done so all in front of the half empty crowds at The Hive.
Their playoff run will end five minutes into game one against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Besides Paul, the Lakers are superior at every position and have been nearly unbeatable since the All-Star break. Even though their roster is not as fragile as the Celtics, the Lakers can not afford to drag out a first round series if they want to have enough energy left to go through Dallas, San Antonio and then whoever makes it to the NBA Finals from the East.
This game will not go further than four games. In all reality, it should be over in one.
