NHL Power Rankings: Sixth Installment (Mar. 30, 2011)
Why read my power rankings? While it may be a tiresome topic, I feel like I bring a unique approach to my rankings.
Rather than simply ranking the teams No. 1-30, I break them up into six categories:
Cup Favorites
Teams that should surprise no one if they go all the way; the class of the league.
Cup Contenders
Teams that will surprise many if they go all the way, but shouldn't; conference powers that are expected to at least make it out of the first round.
Sleepers
Teams that should make the playoffs and are equipped to pull off a surprising playoff run. Last year, the Philadelphia Flyers dominated this section of my rankings.
Bubble Teams
Teams that may or may not make the playoffs. A bubble team is talented enough to make the playoffs, but is not (or is not playing like) a legitimate threat.
Long Shots
Teams that are not likely to make the playoffs. If they get hot, they could squeeze in as a No. 7 or 8 seed, but are fringe teams at best.
Bottom Feeders
Teams that are nowhere near contention and are almost guaranteed a high draft pick. Even early in the season, landing in this category means that the playoffs are very unlikely.
Given this system, my rankings may not exactly reflect how a team has played to this point. A team may be playing over its head and land in the Cup Contenders category, even though it has more points than a "Cup Favorite."
A team may be placed in the Sleepers category, even if it is barely in playoff position, because, in my opinion, that team has underachieved to this point.
In the end, these rankings are more subjective than many, as there is no formula. But I believe that the only point of this type of writing is to stir up a discussion; formulaic power rankings lull most to sleep...
...as I'm probably doing right now.
Cup Favorites
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1. Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks are going to run away with the President's Trophy, and while fighting for the playoffs may often be beneficial, the Canucks will take the home ice in this case. They're an NHL best 25-8-5 in Vancouver.
2. Boston Bruins
The top of the East is much tighter, but Boston, at a conference best plus-51, looks like the most complete team. Three excellent scoring lines, a dynamic top four and Tim Thomas could prove to be too much for the rest of the league.
Cup Contenders
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3. San Jose Sharks
In a Western Conference playoffs where all eight teams have a shot, the Sharks hold the distinction of being the only team without an opponent they can't seem to beat. No matter who the Sharks play, they know that playing their game is enough.
4. Washington Capitals
It took most of the season, but the Caps have finally surged to the top of the Southeast and are second in the conference. The offense is stacked and the team is hungry; they are a hot rookie goaltender away from ending their playoff curse.
5. Detroit Red Wings
The Wings are narrowly holding onto the No. 2 seed, which they should be concerned with. In a second-round series against San Jose last year, the higher-seeded Sharks won all three games at "The Tank."
If they can hold that second seed, revenge could be in order.
6. Philadelphia Flyers
Home ice throughout is what they are currently looking at, but the Flyers' home record of 21-11-6 makes them no shoo-in against potential No. 8 seeds Buffalo (20-13-5 on the road) and New York (23-14-1).
7. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pens appear to be safely in the top five, and that means a trip to the second round is likely. If they get there and Sidney Crosby comes back, along with the return of Matt Cooke, would they not be the favorite to at least make the finals?
Sleepers
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8. Phoenix Coyotes
The 'Yotes don't appear on paper to belong in fourth place out West, but that's where they are for the second year in a row, and after pushing Detroit—an almost unfair No. 5 seed—to seven games last year, a place in the second round could very well be theirs.
9. New York Rangers
They've played just-stick-around for the second year in a row, but this year, a late-season surge has nearly secured them a playoff spot and a good chance at the No. 6 seed. But even at No. 8, a plus-37 team with Henrik Lundqvist in goal is something to be very, very afraid of.
10. Los Angeles Kings
Playing their best hockey of the season at the perfect time, the Kings are in excellent position to take the playoffs by storm. However, the loss of Anze Kopitar turns them from Cup Contender to Sleeper.
Still, this young, confident group has enough offensive grit and defensive skill to withstand that blow.
11. Nashville Predators
Almost a perennial one-and-done team in the West, this year's Preds are being written off as the same. But a shot at the No. 4 seed, a 22-9-7 home record and the West's top goalie in Pekka Rinne all mean that Nashville could find itself in the second round.
12. Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning will likely hold the No. 5 seed due to the cushion they built up earlier this season, but they may be the least scary team in the East's top eight.
But, they have Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis, and even if the Lightning are the team that others are happy to play, they could strike twice.
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Bubble Teams
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13. Chicago Blackhawks
The 'Hawks hot play throughout February and early March had them looking like an excellent threat to repeat, but four wins in their last 10 puts them right back on the bubble.
If they get the No. 8 seed, Vancouver will be terrified, but a 3-2-1 record in their remaining six games could have them sitting at home.
14. Montreal Canadiens
Montreal pulled off two gigantic upsets last year with Jaroslav Halak leading the way. Carey Price may be the league's best goaltender, so another year of upsets is a possibility.
However, a fall down to No. 6, 7 or 8 is also very possible, which could mean an earlier meeting with Philly this time around.
15. Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks are on fire and have overtaken the Stars as the leading candidate to finish fourth in the Pacific and sneak into the playoffs. Still, any slowing down of Corey Perry in their final six games and the Stars or even Flames are within striking distance.
Anaheim's D isn't above letting the wheels fall off.
16. Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo has been playing very good hockey for quite some time now, but a regulation loss and a Carolina win yesterday mean that Buffalo's spot in the playoffs is nowhere near sealed. Winning four of their final six should be enough, but this year's Sabres are anything but reliable.
17. Dallas Stars
All season, I've been proclaiming the Stars are "for real," and all season I've had a gut feeling that they simply were not one of the eight best teams in the West.
A win in their extra game would leave them only one point behind Chicago and two behind Anaheim with six games left, but deeper, veteran teams are still what they're up against in what will essentially be a mini, pre-playoff tourney.
18. Calgary Flames
The Flames excellent stretch of play has ended, and they have looked again like a somewhat lost franchise this month. Winning all of their final five games probably gets them into the postseason, but even then, a first-round date with Vancouver doesn't look too promising.
19. Carolina Hurricanes
The 'Canes are still fighting, as they've done all season. Many times, it looked like everything was falling apart, but now, so close to the finish line, Cam Ward and Eric Staal smell the postseason, and Carolina won't be eliminated without a fight.
Long Shots
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20. Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs looked like a team that could sneak into the playoffs before the season began, and after digging a deep hole early, they've been a solid team, especially since trading Tomas Kaberle.
Still, even a perfect 5-0-0 finish would need to correspond with Buffalo and Carolina collapses, and if these three things don't happen, it's just another year of disappointment in Toronto.
21. Minnesota Wild
The Wild hung around for much of the season, and guys like Martin Havlat, Brent Burns, Mikko Koivu and Niklas Backstrom proved to be a solid core.
A good offseason could have the Wild in the playoffs next year, but true depth is more easily imagined than added.
22. St. Louis Blues
Like 13 other teams in the West this year, the Blues spent some time looking very, very good. Injuries, fundamental problems with things like faceoffs and an inability to close-out games spelled doom for this team, but this young group gives reason to believe that next year's West will be even better.
23. New Jersey Devils
New Jersey has run out of gas, and will ultimately not overcome its 12-29-2 start like many thought it would. Still, the Devils were the best team in the NHL for nearly two months, and they reminded fans and critics that this team is still deep and dangerous.
Another wasted year and it's a disaster in New Jersey, but let's see how the Devils come out of the gate in 2011-12.
24. Columbus Blue Jackets
Whatever allows this weak roster to be mediocre is certainly a plus, but major improvements must be made in Columbus this offseason if the franchise has any plans to return to the playoffs.
Outside of Rick Nash and R.J. Umberger, the Jackets are scary weak.
25. Atlanta Thrashers
The story of the NHL early on this season, Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien have remembered that they aren't Patrick Kane and Duncan Kieth, and their teammates have remembered that they aren't Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien.
The Thrashers are actually on pace to be worse than last year, which means hockey fans in Atlanta should be seriously concerned.
Bottom Feeders
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26. New York Islanders
Likely the least-deep and worst defensive team in the NHL, the Islanders were destined to finish with 70-something points at best this season.
Well, they have achieved that, which is more than the teams below can say. Two talented, young lines provide a glimmer of hope for the future.
27. Florida Panthers
The Panthers played inspired hockey all season long, staying average with well-below-average talent. However, they could not withstand their trading deadline fire sale, and the fact that 34-year-old Tomas Vokoun still plays in Florida is a desperate attendance grab, not a hockey decision.
28. Colorado Avalanche
It's still a little unclear why one of the league's youngest teams, which put up 95 points and a plus-11 last year, has regressed to a pace for 70 points and a minus-61.
Injuries happened and Craig Anderson was not the same, but still, it's troubling. The addition of Erik Johnson, however, remains the gutsiest, smartest move of the season.
29. Ottawa Senators
Last year's weird, minus-13 outlier in the playoffs looked ready to regress this season. And regress the Senators did, probably more than anyone expected.
The decidedly worst team in the East may want to consider a complete overhaul and rebuilding process, because it is more flawed than any other.
30. Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers are too young, too small, too thin and too fundamentally weak to compete on the same level as any other NHL team, and their five fewer wins than anyone else, as well as their minus-71, shows that.
Still, the Oilers are a couple years ahead of teams like Ottawa and Florida, because their bright future is on the horizon, not floating in the ether.
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