Down the Stretch They Come: How NHL's Western Conference Will Finish
There are between five and eight games left in the regular season for all contenders in the tightly knit Western Conference race, and every single point will count. Without a doubt, the Western Conference is the NHL's better half and contains one of the best playoff races in recent memory. As the regular season grind continues to trim the tree and eliminate weaker teams, there are still 10 with a more than legit shot at a playoff berth out West (technically).
One key figure when evaluating your teams chances from this point onward is games in hand. The importance of having games in hand at the end of the year when virtually even with contending playoff teams is crucial because, as we all should know, NHL standings are based on a points system.
Having a game in hand means you have one more game remaining than the opposing, or compared, team has remaining on their schedule. This presents an opportunity to gain at least a point on a team with less games remaining, regardless of how they do.
The story lines that can unfold from a combination of the remaining 10 teams in the Western Conference are endless. Will rivals Chicago and Detroit face-off in the first round? Will Antti Niemi continue his hot goaltending with San Jose to lift them over the hump, as he did in Chicago? Will Vancouver's record-breaking year transfer over to the postseason, or will we see another second-round exit? I can give you the best prediction out there, but only time will tell on this one. Let's drop the puck.
1. Vancouver Canucks (118 Points)
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What a dominating show the Vancouver Canucks have put on for NHL fans this year. With 50 wins already and six games yet to be played, Vancouver will stroll into the postseason as the Western Conference's top seed with 118 points, 9 of them coming in their final six match-ups. Vancouver has displayed not at times, but rather all year long that they are the top dog in the West this year.
The Canucks have all the tools to get 16 wins come playoff time. The Sedin twins are at the top of the NHL in scoring once again, and who has better chemistry on the ice than twins? A retooled defense sports an astounding plus/minus rating, and goalie Roberto Luongo ranks first in wins, and second in save percentage and goals allowed. That's offense and defense, but what about special teams?
Special teams can be the difference in winning a close series, as every game matters. Vancouver has that covered as well, boasting the NHL's best power-play and second-best penalty kill.
Outlying factors like travel and road games? Don't worry about it, Vancouver is the NHL's best home AND road team. Put those two together and you may find yourself thinking the Canucks are legit.
The Canucks are the most complete and efficient team in the NHL, and given a seven-game series, Vancouver can beat anyone, anywhere.
What May Derail Them: Not a whole lot at this point, but anything can realistically happen. Injuries to defensemen Alex Edler and Dan Hamuis may sting a bit, but both can still play in the postseason. However, Manny Malhotra was struck by a puck in the eye last week, an injury that requires surgery, ending Manny's season. These injuries and relative inexperience late in the post-season are the only blips on the radar hinging Vancouver's run to the cup.
2. San Jose Sharks (106 Points)
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As Antti heated up, San Jose caught fire. Will this formula result in another memorable run for the young goaltender, this time with San Jose?
San Jose will finish the regular season second in the West with 106 points, with nine points predicted to come in San Jose's remaining six games. The offense has been clicking, and Antti Niemi has been a force between the pipes since the early season slump. His experience from winning the Cup with Chicago last year can prove to be the key ingredient to what has ailed San Jose's recent playoff performances.
Not one team can match the firepower of San Jose's first line of Joe Thornton, Danny Heatley and Patrick Marleau, and few can match the intensity brought on by second line guys like Joe Pavelski and Devin Setoguchi. The Sharks are also lethal with the man advantage, ranking third in the NHL on the power play.
This San Jose squad seems more gelled than previous Sharks teams, having to come together amidst early season adversity and questionable goaltending. Those problems seem to have been solved at the moment in NorCal, but the playoffs loom for a team that has seen bigger expectations crumbled.
What May Derail Them: Well, themselves. San Jose is used to coasting through the regular season and sinking during the postseason. Each and every letdown from this club seems to outdo the previous letdown, which probably still lingers in the minds of players and fans alike. It is equally as easy to get down on yourself when taking penalties can easily result in opposing goals, and San Jose ranks 24th in the penalty kill department. What happens if San Jose runs into another hot goaltender during the playoffs? It could be history repeating itself, but on a brighter note, Antti Niemi will be donning San Jose gear this time around.
3. Detroit Red Wings (105 Points)
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If you want to go by intangibles, you can almost hand the Cup to the Red Wings right now; but that would defeat the purpose of postseason play. The Wings will finish third in the West with 115 points, seven of those predicted to come via six remaining contests. San Jose has the more favorable schedule remaining and is currently far healthier, allowing them to leapfrog the Wings here late in the season.
Detroit has it all on paper to easily compete for this year's Stanley Cup, but will they have it all physically on the ice?
Detroit has been struggling with injuries all year, and seemingly every skater has had some sort of ailment keeping them off the ice. Regardless of this fact, Detroit is the class of the NHL and has had another stellar regular season.
The reason the Red Wings have maintained their level of excellence through injuries is the incredible team play displayed by this bunch. Everyone passes, shoots and scores, and your best players are only as good as the their supporting cast, giving Detroit an advantage. Having Mike Babcock on the bench is always a relieving thought as well.
Dan Cleary and Todd Bertuzzi each have 40+ points and Nicklas Lidstrom has 60 points at the ripe age of 40 (will be 41 at the end of April). Darren Helm has continued to develop his game around his incredible speed with 30+ points and young winger Justin Abdelkader leads the Wings with a +/- rating of 13.
What May Derail Them: Injuries and goaltending. Mr. Everything Pavel Datsyuk has missed 24 games already this year with injuries, and not having a guy with Datsyuk's ability at 100 percent come playoff time can be costly on and off the ice. Injury-stricken guys like Mike Modano and Johan Franzen will definitely be tested during any kind of playoff run. Jimmy Howard has played very well this year, but his lack of experience and ailing body can mean trouble in Detroit. Howard's backup, Joey MacDonald, has excelled lately in his role, but what does that mean going into the playoffs?
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4. Los Angeles Kings (102 Points)
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Los Angeles is home to another potential banner raiser, but this team plays on ice. The L.A. Kings have a stellar core of hungry players seeking success beyond the regular season. Their ultimate goal of a Stanley Cup may not be accomplished this year, or even next, but their time is approaching fast.
Los Angeles will finish fourth in the Western Conference with 102 points, 10 of those coming in the King's remaining seven games. Unfortunately, recent injuries to Anze Kopitar (ankle) and Justin Williams (shoulder) will undoubtedly hurt an already struggling offense. The acquisition of Dustin Penner from Edmonton could prove to be bigger than just adding a needed scoring piece, as he will look to shoulder a lot of the offensive pressure with Kopitar and Williams sidelined.
The factor that puts L.A. in the position they are at is their defensive play. Jonathan Quick has been tremendous in goal, and the Drew Doughty-Jack Johnson combo has fueled a vaunted defense. The Kings are also very efficient on the penalty kill, ranking fourth in all the NHL.
What May Derail Them: Offense, plain and simple. For a team already struggling to score goals and struggling even more when having a man advantage, it's tough to win playoff games. Kopitar and Williams being out will prove extremely tough, even though Williams may return in time. Kopitar is only out 4-6 weeks....but will L.A. still be playing hockey? Or will the Kings being headed outdoors for a round of 18?
5. Nashville Predators (101 Points)
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Oh those pesky Nashville Predators, always a thorn in the side of bigger market teams it seems like. Those days are apparently behind the Predators now, and Nashville is starting to live up to their nickname, playing more like Predators and less like pests.
With 101 points, Nashville will finish one point behind L.A., giving the Kings home-ice for their 4 vs. 5 matchup. Of those 101 points, nine of them will be awarded during their remaining six games. This figure will be key because Nashville is a different team when it comes to venue. The Preds are extremely tough in Nashville and extremely vulnerable on the road.
What Nashville has going for them right now is Predator hockey. Nashville has been playing with a chip on its shoulder to compete with the bigger boys, and has had to fight for points just as much as any other team down the stretch. The Preds have shined in these meaningful games, having currently won six consecutively and nine of their last 10.
Nashville will roll into the playoffs with momentum and Pekka Rinne on their side. Rinne has been phenomenal since acquiring the starting role when Dan Ellis departed, ranking second in all the NHL in save percentage and goals against. He only trails Boston's Tim Thomas in both categories, which says something about the quality of goaltending in Nashville.
If you don't recall, Nashville was a miracle Patrick Kane goal away from shocking the eventual champion Chicago Blackhawks in last year's playoffs.
What May Derail Them: Inexperience and travel. The Predators are pretty inexperienced in the playoffs, and that's a given. The fact that a weak road team would have to travel cross country for the playoffs is more troubling.
6. Chicago Blackhawks (99 Points)
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My oh my, what a first-round matchup these standing have set for us. Detroit and Chicago, two bitter rivals, two franchises that have recently tasted glory, two members of the Original Six, and a lot of animosity fuels what should be an epic, if not THE MOST epic first-round matchup...EVER. Expect blood to be drawn both on the ice and in the crowd.
The Chicago Blackhawks will finish sixth in the Western Conference with 99 points, nine of which are coming in Chicago's seven games in hand.
You know exactly what you get with the defending champs. High-powered offense, highly skilled defending, and down-right intimidating names on the back of their respective sweaters. Now that I mentioned it, The Blackhawks have the best sweaters in all the NHL.
Young goaltender Corey Crawford has risen above adversity and has firmly made his mark as the Chicago Blackhawks' starting goaltender. Corey has been excellent as of late, most likely due to the lack of pressure being put on him by veteran backup Marty Turco.
They have the experience, the core of a champion (Toews, Kane, Hossa), and the known fact that nobody wants to have to face Chicago as a bottom-half seed.
What May Derail Them: Injuries to Patrick Sharpe and Dave Bolland have made an impact, but having them healthy for the playoffs is more important. That and the fact that Chicago still has to fight for a playoff spot can stop this team in its tracks. If Chicago makes the playoffs, in which I fully expect, Corey Crawford's continued good play is key to keeping his head on straight. If Crawford stays confident, Chicago will chew up some competition. If not, they will go hungry.
7. Phoenix Coyotes (99 Points)
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It still amazes me that an NHL-owned franchise still competes and wins like Phoenix has been doing. They don't have the appeal, the star-power or really the fan base to succeed like they have been out West, but stats don't lie.
The Phoenix Coyotes will finish seventh in the West when all is said and done, losing the tiebreaker to Chicago due to less regulation wins. Of those 99 points, six will come in their remaining five games.
Phoenix has been taking care of business as of late, recording a vital 7-2-1 record over their last 10 games. However, with only five games remaining on the Coyote's schedule, opportunities to increase their point total are fewer than most.
The Coyotes are young and have seen playoff action before, taking Detroit to seven games last year. A majority of their success has to be attributed to goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov, who has been as reliable and vital to a franchise as any other goaltender in the league today. "The Bryz" can carry Phoenix through tough games, but against top-notch competition may prove too tough.
Phoenix has been a stellar road team, but really has no home-ice advantage. This is due to their mediocre-at-best home record and the fans in the seats. Any solid opposing fan base always seems to make abundant noise out their in beautiful Glendale, AZ.
What WILL Derail Them: Being a good road team is one, but winning on the road during the season won't help much at the Shark Tank. Lack of an identity for their fans really and not enough consistent help from guys around Ilya Bryzgalov will do them in.
8. Anaheim Ducks (96 Points)
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And rounding out the playoffs in the Western Conference will be the eventual 8-seed Anaheim Ducks. For some reason, I keep wanting to call them the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, but that is for another time and regards another sport.
The Ducks will finish the year with 96 points, beating both Calgary and Dallas by one measly point to make the playoffs. With eight games remaining, Anaheim will get nine of their 96 points during this all important stretch.
The Ducks have Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, a great offensive-defensive combo that can create some havoc. Add in the emergence of Bobby Ryan and their recent play and Anaheim may.....win a game against Vancouver.
It's always nice to get into the playoffs, especially by beating out two teams by one point. But the prize of getting to play Vancouver isn't much better than getting an early start on your golf game. The reason Anaheim makes the top eight is purely games in hand and schedule. Not only do they have an astounding eight games yet to be played, their last four include home games against Columbus and Colorado, and roadies at Colorado and Minnesota.
What WILL Derail Them: Vancouver
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