NFL Draft 2011 Predictions: Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Redskins

With the current NFL labor situation in limbo, there is, perhaps one silver lining that should give Redskins fans a glimmer of hope.

With no free agent workouts and no trade scenarios to iron out, Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen can focus virtually all of their attention on the upcoming draft.

With this extra attention, they should be able to spend more time evaluating the draftees, forecasting player potential, and avoiding high-risk scenarios.

In 2010, the Redskins participated in their first draft without former General Manager Vinny Cerrato (1999-2009) calling the shots.  The results - only drafting one starter and trading away two picks - were mediocre at best.  That said, most would agree that Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen appeared to have better judgment than Cerrato who infamously drafted three consecutive pass-catchers in 2008 (D. Thomas, F. Davis, M. Kelly).

As the 2011 draft approaches, there are a variety of different directions the Redskins can go in.  They have so many needs across the board, almost any player they draft should make an immediate impact.

In this article, I'm going to run through a few scenarios, ranging from absolute worst case to absolute best case.  From the fifth round on, I expect all the scenarios to be very similar.  The Redskins should and most likely will use these picks to add depth up and down the roster.

But in the first and second rounds (they currently don't have a third or fourth round pick), whichever direction they choose will have a lasting impact on this organization, and Mike Shanahan's career, for years to come.  That's what you get when you combine a team with so many holes, yet so few draft picks - you can't afford to screw it up.

Here goes...

Absolute Worst Case Scenario: Trade Up to Draft QB Blaine Gabbert

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

ST. LOUIS - SEPTEMBER 4: Blaine Gabbert #11 of the University of Missouri Tigers looks to pass against the University of Illinois Fighting Illini during the State Farm Arch Rivalry game on September 4, 2010 at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, Missouri.

Why is this the absolute worst case scenario you ask?  Well, if it happens, it means Mike Shanahan decided to trade up into the top 5 to grab Gabbert.  In doing so, he would have to give up the 10th overall pick and most likely the Redskins 2nd rounder as well.

Blaine Gabbert could very well develop into an elite NFL quarterback, but that won't matter if he has no one to throw to, no one to block for him, and no one on defense to give the ball back to the offense.

The Redskins have way too many needs on both sides of the ball to trade away more draft picks for a potential franchise quarterback.  There's no way to know for sure whether or not Gabbert has what it takes to excel in the NFL.

He could be the next Aaron Rogers.  But he could also be the next Matt Leinart. 

Don't do it, Mike.

Worst Case Scenario: Drafting Ryan Mallett at No. 10

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NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 04: Quarterback Ryan Mallett #15 of the Arkansas Razorbacks looks to pass against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the Allstate Sugar Bowl at the Louisiana Superdome on January 4, 2011 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Matthew

You'll notice a trend here.  Any action that carries with it a considerable amount of risk is a bad scenario in my book.

If the Redskins draft Ryan Mallett at 10 overall, it means Mike Shanahan fell in love with Mallet's rocket arm and ignored the obvious red flags.

It would also mean they would only have their second round pick remaining to make a significant improvement at nose tackle, wide receiver, linebacker, etc.

There's no questioning Mallet's throwing ability.  He's got the arm strength to make any throw on the field, and is as accurate as any of the other quarterbacks in the draft.

There are some glaring issues though that should put doubt in the minds of potential suitors. 

He's not very athletic.  He's big (6'7'') and is about as quick is my grandmother.

There are also questions about his decision-making skills and poise in the pocket when faced with pressure.

And finally, there are the allegations of drug use and misconduct during his time at Arkansas.

Let's hope the Shanahans aren't blinded by his arm and instead avoid drafting this potential headache. 

Pretty Bad Case Scenario: Drafting Jake Locker at No. 10

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TUCSON, AZ - OCTOBER 23: Quarterback Jake Locker #10 of the Washington Huskies drops back to pass during the college football game against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium on October 23, 2010 in Tucson, Arizona. The Wildcats defeated the Huskies 4

Again, we're looking at the amount of risk here.

Last year, Jake Locker was expected to challenge Sam Bradford for the first player taken in the draft.  He decided to go back to Washington for his senior year and proceeded to absolutely destroy his draft stock.

He's got all the physical tools.  He's got athleticism, size, a strong arm, and a seemingly good head on his shoulders, but there are major questions regarding his mechanics, specifically his accuracy.

Could those issues be fixed with good coaching?  Perhaps.  But again, there's no guarantee.  There's too much risk.

If they took Locker, they'd use their second round pick to address the defense or wide receiver.  That pick becomes that much more important.

I wouldn't hate the pick if they took Locker, but I sure wouldn't be comfortable with it.

Just Okay Scenario: Drafting Julio Jones at No. 10

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AUBURN, AL - NOVEMBER 27: Julio Jones #8 of the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on November 27, 2009 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Now we're talking. 

Taking Julio Jones at 10 shouldn't make anyone cringe.  With Santana Moss likely leaving for free agency, the Redskins have a big need at wide receiver.

Julio Jones would fulfill that need.  But who's going to throw the ball to him?  Rex Grossman?  Jon Beck?  It certainly won't be Donovan McNabb.

They could draft a quarterback in the second round, say Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton, but they won't be NFL-ready for at least an entire season.

Jones is a tremendous talent and would immediately upgrade the offense, but I think there are other scenarios that could have an even bigger impact.

Pretty Good Case Scenario: Drafting Aldon Smith at No. 10

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COLUMBIA, MO - OCTOBER 23: Aldon Smith #85 of the Missouri Tigers in action against the Oklahoma Sooners at Faurot Field/Memorial Stadium on October 23, 2010 in Columbia, Missouri. The Tigers beat the Sooners 36-27. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Image

I like to call Aldon Smith Brian Orakpo 2.0.

They're basically the same player.  They're about the same size (6'4'', 260 lbs), with similar speed and strength, and translate to the NFL in the same fashion.

Orakpo showed a few growing pains making the change from a defensive end in college to a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL, but 19.5 sacks and two Pro Bowls in two years speaks for itself.

Smith is considered by many to be a near-perfect fit in a 3-4 defense at outside linebacker.  He can rush the passer as well as anyone, but is also athletic enough to drop back into coverage.

If the Redskins drafted Aldon Smith, they would have two of the best OLBs in the NFL for years to come.

It would set a very nice foundation for their defense going forward.

They could then use their second round pick to address the need at quarterback or wide receiver.

Best Case Scenario: Trading Back

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WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 11: Washington Redskins general manager Bruce Allen (L) arrives for labor talks at the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service building March 11, 2011 in Washington, DC. Representatives from the National Football League (NFL) an

Because the Redskins have so many needs and so few picks, the best case scenario for them would be to trade the 10th overall pick and move down for more picks.

This one is pretty self-explanatory.

If there is no one available at 10 that the Redskins absolutely love, they should do whatever they can to move back in the draft.

The more picks, the better.  Plain and simple.  If they were able to trade their first rounder, they'd have more options in the second round, and might even be able to get their third and fourth rounders back.

They still wouldn't be able to address all of their needs, but it'd be a pretty darn good start.

Absolute Best Case Scenario: Drafting Von Miller at No. 10

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INDIANAPOLIS, IN - FEBRUARY 28: Von Miller of Texas A&M works out during the 2011 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 28, 2011 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

This may be a little wishful thinking, I know.

That's why it's "Absolute Best Case Scenario."

Von Miller is unlikely to make it past Arizona at 5th overall, but if for some reason he falls to the Redskins at 10, it would be Christmas in April.

You'll notice a couple of slides ago I called Aldon Smith a "near-perfect fit" for a 3-4.  The reason why he's near perfect is because Von Miller is the only perfect fit.

He's got perfect size, perfect speed, and perfect athleticism to play outside linebacker in a 3-4.  If the Redskins could somehow draft him and pair him with Brian Orakpo, it would be downright scary.

In order for Miller to fall, there would have to be a major shake-up in the top 8 picks.

Highly unlikely, but it'd be nice.