2011 NFL Mock Draft: Will Jake Locker Fall Out of the 1st Round?
The NFL draft is quickly approaching, and with the college season, the combine and pro-days behind—barring an embarrassing appearance in the police reports—there really isn't anything left for players to do to elevate or destroy their draft status.
So, as teams do their final tweaking to their draft boards, I am putting the final polish onto my mock draft.
Said NFL teams could save themselves some time and just look at this mock draft to see what they are going to do, but they probably are still operating under the illusion of free will.
Read on and you shall see if the player whose draft stock has fluctuated more than most, Jake Locker, can expect to be a first-round pick or not.
No. 1. Carolina Panthers: Blaine Gabbert
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Why the Panthers Need a QB: The Panthers need a complete team overhaul, and when you have the No. 1 overall pick the pressure to take a QB is tremendous. So though they just took Jimmy Clausen in the second round of last year's draft, they will look to upgrade in this year's.
You can never have too many QBs, and if both Gabbert and Clausen mature into solid starting NFL QBs the can trade one and fill other needs that way.
Why Gabbert Makes Sense: Gabbert has the size, arm strength and accuracy that everyone looks for in NFL QBs. He has good leadership skills and he has played in a system that has called for him to make quick reads.
While he will still need to adjust to NFL offenses, he more than any QB in the draft has shown the skills that suggest he can do that and do it well.
No. 2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
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Why the Broncos Need a DT: The Broncos defense was horrible in 2010. Their pass defense rated slightly above their run defense only because teams were able to run so easily and often that the passing numbers stayed down.
With the switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3, and not one 4-3 DT currently on the roster, this team almost has to draft DT with the first pick. Lucky for them there is great depth at that position in this draft.
Why Dareus Makes Sense: Dareus had an amazing combine. He showed the explosiveness to rush the passer as a "3" technique DT and the size to play the "0."
He played the majority of 2010 with a high ankle sprain, but he still demonstrated the ability to dominate a game. He will eat up blockers in the run game and force his way into the backfield.
No. 3. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Peterson
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Why the Bills Need a DB: The Bills need a little of everything on defense. Their starting corners, Leodis McKelvin and Terrence McGee, were not a disaster in 2010, but they could certainly be upgraded.
McGee is aging and becoming injury-prone while McKelvin has yet to develop into a solid No. 1 corner.
Why Peterson Makes Sense: Peterson has an elite combination of size and speed. He ran a 4.34 in the 40 at the combine and he measured 6'1" and 219 pounds.
This is near Bo Jackson, Herschel Walker levels.
He has all the tools to be a shutdown corner. He will also bring with him an electrifying return game.
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No. 4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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Why the Bengals Need a WR: The Bengals are not likely to be renewing the T.Ocho show for another season. They are also unlikely to be quarterbacked by Carson Palmer next season.
Marvin Lewis does not have the luxury of breaking in a rookie QB. He needs results immediately. They are going to add some firepower to the offense of the receiving variety.
Why Green Makes Sense: Green has everything you look for in a WR. He has the size at 6'4" and 200 pounds, 4.4 speed and hands.
He did not post the eye-popping numbers of Julio Jones at the combine, but he is a more fluid receiver with stronger hands.
He should be a No. 1 WR for years to come—his talent and upside have a Canton zip code.
No. 5. Arizona Cardinals: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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Why the Cardinals Need A QB: The Cardinals and their fans have suffered through some of the worst quarterbacking in recent memory. Due to injuries and ineffectiveness, the position has been a revolving door.
I expect them to add a veteran to help get them through the next season, and draft Newton to help energize the team and fanbase.
Why Newton Makes Sense: The tools and potential are going to prove to be too much for more than five teams to pass on. Newton has freakish size, strength and speed and his passing skills seemed to get better every game.
He will bring some needed buzz to a Cardinal team that is on the verge of falling back to obscurity.
No. 6. Cleveland Browns: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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Why the Browns Need a DT: The Browns are in need of some defensive line additions. The hiring of Dick Jauron as defensive coordinator likely means they are switching from the 3-4 to the 4-3.
They have also severed ties with Shaun Rogers and Kenyon Coleman.
The holes are there, now they just need the right person to fill them.
Why Fairley Makes Sense: Nick Fairley weighed in at the combine at 291 pounds, which was lighter than expected. He then beefed back up to the realm of three bills for his pro day.
No matter his weight, Fairley displays his tremendous explosion, and he should be able to regularly penetrate into the opposition's backfield.
He has the look of a perfect fit for DE in a 3-4 system or a "3" technique DT. As he displayed in the BCS National Championship Game, Fairley can dictate what offenses try to do.
No. 7. San Francisco 49ers: Prince Amukamara, DB, Nebraska
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Why the 49ers Need a CB: The 49ers have a solid run defense, but they were shredded by opposing WRs in 2010. DB Nate Clements is overpaid and aging into a liability.
They have the 30th and 31st ranked DVOA against No. 1 and 2 receivers respectively.
Why Amukamara Makes Sense: Amukamara has the size, 6'1" and 205 pounds, speed and instincts to play on day one.
He has shown the ball skills and ability to change directions that could make him one of the elite corners in the NFL.
No. 8. Tennessee Titans: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
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Why the Titans Need an OLB: The Titans need to improve their pass rush. They have a solid defensive line, but they could use some help on the edge.
They are in luck. This draft is loaded with edge pass rushers.
Why Miller Makes Sense: Miller is the 2010 Big 12 sacks leader. He has been a consistent pass rusher his entire career.
He has the size and the speed that gives him the flexibility to put his hand in the dirt on passing downs and play OLB on other downs.
No. 9. Dallas Cowboys: Da'Quan Bowers, OLB/DE, Clemson
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Why the Cowboys Need a DE: The Cowboys have an aging and eroding D-line. They have not put consistent pressure on opposing QBs and they have not been able to stop the run, and that is a fatal double whammy.
DeMarcus Ware is still a productive player, but he could use someone to take the pressure off of him.
Why Bowers Makes Sense: Bowers' quickness for his size approaches freak range. He is very stout against the run and he can hold the edge.
It is, however, his elite pass rushing skills that are going to catapult him to the top of the draft though. While he is probably more of an OLB in a 3-4 system the Cowboys will be doing back flips when he falls to them in the draft.
No. 10. Washington Redskins: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
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Why the Redskins Need a DE: Mike Shanahan does not have the luxury of job security that would afford the time needed to mold a QB.
I would look for them to try and bring in a veteran QB like Kevin Kolb and draft someone that can make an instant impact. In this draft teams are going to find the best value and impact on the D-line.
Why Jordan Makes Sense: Jordan had a solid season, but flew somewhat under the radar. He was right in the middle of their radar after he dominated the competition during his time at the Senior Bowl.
At 6'4" and 285 pounds, he has the size and strength it will take to excel as a DE in a 3-4 NFL system.
No. 11. Houston Texans: Robert Quinn, OLB, North Carolina
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Why Houston Needs an OLB: The Texans were horrible on pass defense. A big part of the problem was a lack of pass rush.
They can either draft to find people that can stay with receivers for eight seconds every play, or they can find someone that makes their secondary only have to stay in coverage for three seconds every play.
They are switching to a 3-4 defense and they need the OLBs to do it.
Why Quinn Makes Sense: Quinn is an excellent athlete, and his skills lend him an all-around game on the edge. He can rush the passer and is solid against the run.
At 6'5" and 265 pounds, Quinn could play with his hand in the dirt as an end on passing downs and slip to OLB on first and second downs.
No. 12. Minnesota Vikings: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
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Why the Vikings Need a DE: The Minnesota Vikings defense fell off the map in 2010. They were an inferior product to the 2009 edition in almost every way. And that all started with the defensive line.
Combine the lack of production with the potential free agency of DE Ray Edwards and his eight sacks, and you have a team that needs a defensive end.
Why Smith Makes Sense: Smith has the look and potential to be a perfect fit in a 3-4 as an end. He will instantly upgrade the Vikings' rush defense, while getting to the QB on occasion.
He is explosive enough to get into the backfield and strong enough to hold his ground against power runs.
No. 13. Detroit Lions: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
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Why the Lions Need an OLB: The Lions are thin at LB—especially after they cut OLB Julian Peterson. They need some athleticism on the edge.
This defense as a whole needs playmakers. They need to add some sacks and turnovers.
Why Ayers Makes Sense: Ayers is an excellent athlete. He has displayed good, but not quite elite, pass-rushing skills.
However, it is in the other areas of linebacking that Ayers excels. Ayers is stout against the run and amazing in coverage. He is the best all-around linebacker in this draft.
No. 14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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Why the Rams Need a WR: The Rams lack a true No. 1 WR for their franchise QB, Sam Bradford. They need to grab a playmaker on the outside who can grow with their young QB.
The Rams are likely hoping that Jones' impressive combine does not mean that a team in front of them will draft this explosive receiver. Jones and Green are the only two receivers in this draft that are worth the 14th pick.
Why Jones Makes Sense: At 6'4", 210 lbs, Julio Jones has the size to go over DBs. He also has the explosiveness.
Jones had the most impressive combine of 2011 of any offensive player, and he did it all with a broken foot.
The guy has all of the physical tools to be a dominant WR in the NFL. There is no way he stays on the board beyond the Rams.
No. 15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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Why the Dolphins Need a RB: The Dolphins are built to run the football. They have a bruising line, and not very good QBs.
They could take a look at a QB here, but this team can make a playoff run with a return to the running game, and Tony Sparano already saw his owner interview replacements. He needs Ws sooner rather than later.
Also, both of their RBs are going to be free agents and both are getting up there in years.
Why Ingram Makes Sense: Ingram has the kind of straight-ahead running style the Dolphins love. He draws comparisons to Emmitt Smith.
If they pick up Ingram, they will be able to lose either Williams or Brown and not miss a beat, and if he turns out to be half the back that Smith was they will have the steal of the draft.
No. 16. Jacksonville Jaguars: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
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Why the Jaguars Need a DE: The Jaguars struggled to put pressure on opposing QBs, and their pass defense really struggled because of it.
Their rush defense improved as the season went on, and they are happy with their young DTs. Now they will look for an end to put outside of them.
Why Watt Makes Sense: Watt is the complete package. He holds his ground against the run, and he has enough explosion to rush the passer.
Watt is big enough to play an end in a 3-4, and he would be a fine strong-side end in a 4-3.
Watt will make the Jaguars' young defense younger, give them flexibility to tinker with a 3-4 (which there are rumblings of) and instantly improve it in the process.
No. 17. New England Patriots: Ryan Kerrigan, OLB/DE, Purdue
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Why the Patriots Need a DE: The Patriots aren't getting to the QB as often as they like. They already have a young defense but look for them to go after a pass rusher with their first pick.
They are thin and not that talented at linebacker—especially on the edge.
Why Kerrigan Makes Sense: Kerrigan was such a force at Senior Bowl practices, he earned the nickname "Superman." Kerrigan is a high-motor player with tremendous strength.
Ryan Kerrigan is just the kind of player the Patriots are looking for. He has played defensive end, but he has the skill set and size to be a pass rushing OLB in a 3-4.
No. 18. San Diego Chargers: Cameron Heyward, DE, OSU
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Why the Chargers Need a DE: Two of the Chargers' DEs' contracts have expired. They are unlikely to re-sign both of them and this is a great draft for a D-lineman.
While they could use some pass rushing help at the OLB position they have spent enough first round selections on OLBs in the recent past to make them look D-line here.
Why Heyward Makes Sense: Heyward had an outstanding Sugar Bowl after a disappointing 2010 season.
At 6'5" and 294 pounds he has the size to be an excellent end in a 3-4. He also has enough explosion to occasionally get to the QB.
No. 19. New York Giants: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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Why the Giants Need an OT: The Giants' inconsistency on offense stems from their offensive line. David Diehl is slowing down and William Beatty did not look like a starting NFL LT.
As a result they couldn't take over games with their run games and Eli Manning never has the luxury of becoming comfortable in the pocket.
Why Solder Makes Sense: All-American Nate Solder is an athletic lineman with decent footwork. He has great size at 6'8" and room to add to his 315 pounds on his lanky frame.
Solder has excellent footwork and agility. He needs to work on his leverage. He is a pro-ready pass blocker, but needs some work on his run blocking and strength.
With solid line coaching, Solder could turn into a Pro Bowl LT.
No. 20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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Why the Bucs Need a DE: Tampa is set up the middle on their defensive front. They spent their first two picks on DT in 2010.
Now they need an end to bring some pressure on the edge and divert blockers from the middle. They will have several edge players to choose from.
Why Clayborn Makes Sense: He can rush the passer and stop the run. At 6'4" and 285 pounds, he has great size to hold the edge against the run and will occasionally get to the passer.
He will be a perfect fit on the strong side of a defensive line. It is going to take two blockers to seal this guy off on runs.
No. 21. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
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Why the Chiefs Need an OT: The Chiefs led the league in rushing, but their O-line struggled down the stretch—especially in pass protection.
While the Chiefs' aging offensive line leaves them with bigger needs on the interior, their position in this draft leaves them to get the maximum value at the tackle position.
Why Smith Makes Sense: Smith has good quickness and footwork. He did his draft status a tremendous service by showing up at the combine at 307 pounds and he has plenty of room to add bulk on his 6'5" frame.
Smith is very athletic for a tackle. He has solid footwork and decent strength. He is better in pass protection, but if he bulks up he will be an elite run blocker as well.
No. 22. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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Why the Colts Need an OT: The Colts need help on their defensive front, but they also could use some help at RT, and when Peyton Manning is your QB you take care of him first.
The Colts run game struggled in 2010 as backs had few holes to run through, and more importantly, Manning was often forced to ditch the ball before receivers had finished their routes.
Why Castonzo Makes Sense: Castonzo is a four-year starter. He has the footwork and strength to play both the LT and RT positions.
He is a solid run blocker and a capable pass blocker. He would be an instant upgrade and a fixture on this line for years to come.
No. 23. Philadelphia Eagles: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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Why the Eagles Need an OT: While the Eagles are one of the better rushing teams in the league, they are one of the worst pass blocking. Their QBs took a beating in 2010.
They are in desperate need of upgrades on the right side of their line.
Why Carimi Makes Sense: Carimi is a big, mauling tackle who may be moved to guard in the NFL.
While his pass blocking technique has been questioned, he has the work ethic to improve. At 6'8" and 320 pounds, he certainly has the size. If he is going to make it at tackle, it will be at RT.
No. 24. New Orleans Saints: Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois
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Why the Saints Need a RB: The Saints run game suffered through injuries in 2010 and as a result it became almost non-existent.
The Saints were 28th in rushing yards and 30th in rushing attempts. They need to add someone to help take the pressure off of Drew Brees and the passing game.
Why LeShoure Makes Sense: Mikel LeShoure is just the man the Saints are looking for. He is a big body, 6’0” and 230 pounds, that can get the tough inside yards and he also has some surprising speed and elusiveness.
LeShoure’s draft stock has been on a steady incline since the start of the 2010 season. He is solid in pass protection and he is very capable catching the ball out of the backfield.
No. 25. Seattle Seahawks: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
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Why the Seahawks Need a QB: Matt Hasselbeck is very clearly nearing the end of his playing days.
While they just traded for Charlie Whitehurst, their reluctance to play him despite Matt Hasselbeck's injuries is evidence they do not feel he is their long-term answer.
Why Locker Makes Sense: They got Whitehurst under the premise he would be good for the type of QB motion offense and deep-strike offense the Seahawks wanted to utilize.
These are Locker's strengths. He has excellent mobility and terrific arm strength. His accuracy also seems to be better on the move than in the pocket.
No. 26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
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Why the Ravens Need a DB: The Ravens defense lacks the corners on the outside that can shut down a WR and allow the rest of the defense to get after the QB and stuff the running game.
While Chris Carr and Josh Wilson did an admirable job, they are also both free agents. The Ravens are going to look to upgrade this position.
Why Harris Makes Sense: The Ravens will be ecstatic if Harris lasts until they pick. He has all the tools to be a solid man-to-man corner in the NFL, with great ball skills and speed.
While his lack of size may hurt him against bigger players over the middle, the Ravens have Ray Lewis and company to help him with that.
No. 27. Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
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Why the Falcons Need a TE: Tony Gonzalez is old—that's why. He has mentioned during the year that this could be his final season.
Even if he does come back, the Falcons can lighten his load and train his heir-apparent. Matt Ryan has gotten used to having the security blanket of a TE to throw to, and you never want to make people go cold turkey from a security blanket.
Why Rudolph Makes Sense: Rudolph is widely regarded as the best TE prospect in the draft. He is 6'6", 260 lbs and runs a 4.6 40, and he has solid hands to go with it.
The guy has all the physical tools and he put them together to have a productive college career. He also has the frame to be a dominant blocker.
No. 28. New England Patriots: Jon Baldwin, WR, Pitt
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Why the Patriots Need a WR: The Patriots offense lacks size and speed at the WR position. They have great route-running WRs and TEs with solid hands, but they lack that guy to take two players with him down the field.
While the offense took off after Randy Moss departed they lost that deep threat that opens up the underneath for the others.
Why Baldwin Makes Sense: Baldwin has struggled a bit this year, but that is easily attributable to the struggles of the QB position at Pittsburgh.
Baldwin is 6'5" and has good hands. He has a less-than-blazing 4.5 40 time, but his size is enough to make him a deep threat.
No. 29. Chicago Bears: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
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Why the Bears Need an OT: It is amazing the Bears made it to the conference championship game with their putrid offensive line. While the O-line improved as the year went it was still a liability.
They will take the best lineman on the board.
Why Sherrod Makes Sense: Sherrod is an excellent athlete at the LT position. He is a little light at 6'6" and 300 lbs, but he makes up for it with technique and footwork and he has plenty of room to add some beef to his frame.
He will be an instant upgrade in the passing game, and a work in progress in the run game.
No. 30. New York Jets: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
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Why the Jets Need a NT: The Jets defense has dominated the past two seasons despite only having the services of their nose tackle, Kris Jenkins, for seven games.
The Jets need that beefy anchor up the middle and it is apparent they can’t count on Jenkins.
Why Taylor Makes Sense: Phil Taylor has the size to play nose tackle in the NFL. He is 6’4” and 340 pounds. He has decent quickness and his strength and size make him an immovable object against the run.
The Jets need a bigger pass rush. Taylor will indirectly put pressure on the QB. He is not going to get the sacks himself, but he is going to occupy blockers and open up the holes for Rex Ryan’s exotic blitz packages.
No. 31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
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Why the Steelers Need an OL: The Steelers were last in the league in sacks-allowed percentage.
Even more importantly, the Steelers want to run the football and they have been unable to do so consistently due to their subpar offensive line.
Why Pouncey Makes Sense: I think it is safe to say Mike will have good chemistry with the Steelers center. He is the twin brother of Maurkice Pouncey, the Steelers center. Mike brings similar skills and has the potential to start at guard or center.
If he is still available, this is a no-brainer.
No. 32. Green Bay Packers: DeMarcus Love, OT, Arkansas
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Why the Packers Need an OT: For a Super Bowl champion, the Green Bay Packers are an amazingly young team with few players whose contracts just expired.
One area where they may be hurt by age and free agency is the offensive line. LT Chad Clifton is 34 and LG Daryn Colledge is no longer under contract.
Why Love Makes Sense: Love has a lot of starting experience at both RT and LT.
More importantly, he has the size and run blocking ability that would allow him to start at guard. This would allow him to fill the hole left by Colledge, while Clifton finishes out his career.
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