Roger Federer: 6 Reasons He'll Never Regain the No. 1 Ranking

Roger Federer is the greatest tennis player of all time, but he's not the best player right now.  Like Tiger Woods, many sports fans and so-called experts think Federer will reclaim the No. 1 ranking at some point.

But reality says otherwise.  Federer would have more luck ascending Mount Everest without oxygen in January than trekking to the top of the tennis world.  Here are six reasons why.

1. Stiff Competition

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KEY BISCAYNE, FL - MARCH 25: Robin Soderling of Sweden follows through on a return against Ivan Dodig of Crotia during the Sony Ericsson Open at Crandon Park Tennis Center on March 25, 2011 in Key Biscayne, Florida. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Imag

Federer won 42 titles from 2004-2007.  In the past three-plus years, he's won 14, including just one so far in 2011.  He may have lost a tiny step physically, but the main reason for his decline in productivity is the spike in quality competition.  There are several players who can now beat Federer, if not on a regular basis, then at least on a good day.  Federer is working harder to get to the later rounds of tournaments. When he does reach the semis and finals, he's usually facing Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic.  No fun. 

2. Mental Block Against Nadal and Djokovic

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KEY BISCAYNE, FL - MARCH 24: Novak Djokovic of Serbia answers questions from the media at a press conference during the Sony Ericsson Open at Crandon Park Tennis Center on March 24, 2011 in Key Biscayne, Florida. (Photo by Chris Chambers/Getty Images)

Speaking of Nadal and Djokovic, the players Federer must run down to reach No. 1 are in his head. Nadal has owned Federer in major finals. Djokovic has knocked Federer out of the past two majors and beat him again just last week at Indian Wells.  I think Federer can accept losing to Nadal, especially on clay, but losing to Djokovic drives him crazy.  He was visibly agitated in his semifinal loss at the Australian Open, like he couldn't believe this upstart was taking it to him.  Federer needs a breakthrough win against Djokovic to reclaim some mojo.

3. No More Fear Factor

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INDIAN WELLS, CA - MARCH 19: Roger Federer of Switzerland returns a backhand to Novak Djokovic of Serbia during the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden on March 19, 2011 in Indian Wells, California. (Photo by Jeff Gross/

Tiger won plenty of golf tournaments simply by showing up.  Same with Federer and tennis.  His peers used to revere him, fear him and feel honored to get their butts handed to them on a sizzling inside-out forehand.

Not any more.  If the average tour player had the option of playing Nadal, Djokovic or Federer, the world No. 3 would be the clear choice.  His game is still brilliant, but he's more inconsistent and less punishing from the baseline (especially from the backhand side) than some of the other top players.  Bottom line: he's lost the intimidation factor.  

4. He's Got a Points Problem

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INDIAN WELLS, CA - MARCH 20: Rafael Nadal of Spain returns a shot to Novak Djokovic of Serbia during the final of the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden on March 20, 2011 in Indian Wells, California. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Image

Currently Federer trails Djokovic by 430 points in the world rankings.  Not a huge deal, except that Djokovic has won 24 straight matches and is thrashing players in the process.  The bigger problem is Nadal, who leads Federer by over 4,000 points.  

Assuming Nadal and Federer have similar seasons—say, one major and several top-flight wins—Federer won't pick up any ground.  And that's a huge assumption.  Federer hasn't won a major (2,000 points) in over a year, and the clay-court season is just around the corner.  Nadal loses on clay as often as Duke loses in Cameron.    

5. He's Got an Age Problem

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NEW YORK - AUGUST 31: Mirka Federer (R), wife of Roger Federer of Switzerland and Roger Federer's agent Tony Godsick look on during his men's singles Round 1 match during day one of the 2009 U.S. Open at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center o

Federer is turning 30 in August.  That's dinosaur status in professional tennis.  He's been remarkably resistant to age and injury, but how many more years can he play at the highest level?  How much longer can he grind it out against players five and 10 years his junior?

Federer has made it clear that he wants to be No. 1 again, and that he expects to be No. 1 again.  Sounds good, but he better do it fast.  Nadal is in his prime and Djokovic is only going to get better.  Assuming neither one gets injured, Federer is going to have to find a sixth (seventh?) gear this year. 

6. Because Martina Navratilova Said So

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NAIROBI, KENYA - DECEMBER 13: Martina Navratilova smiles as she talks in the First Class lounge of Nairobi Airport on the return travel day of the Martina Navratilova Mt. Kilimanjaro Climb on December 13, 2010 in Nairobi, Kenya. Martina Navratilova was t

"Roger is on the other side of the float, I don't think he'll ever play as well as he did three or four years ago.  That's not to say he can't still win a slam, but it's difficult to see him climbing back to number one."

So said tennis great Martina Navratilova just the other day.  She also implied that Federer needs to get tougher mentally, and that losing to Djokovic and co. is getting under his skin.  From a lesser player, I would brush off such comments.  But Martina has won a few majors in her day and played competitively well into her forties.  She knows how tough it is to get to the top.  

I hope Federer can do it, but it's going to be like climbing the Col du Tourmalet on bike with partially inflated tires.

Scott Tiernan was an editor and contributing author for 101 Things Every Man Should Know How to Do and January 20, 2009: True Stories, Real People, One Day, both published by Webook, Inc.  His first novel, Dornoch Walking, is due out in April.  More at http://scott-tiernan.blogspot.com.