2011 NFL Mock Draft: Unsexy, Unpredictable...and Unrivaled Talent At No. 1
Every now and then, we writers carry the delusion that we can foreshadow future decisions of not only one crazy team owner, but all 32 of them. Mocking the first round of this year's NFL draft provides such a stage for us to do this on. It's a difficult task, but knowing that Oakland has no first round pick has made my job of predicting a little easier, albeit not too much.
Ready? Here it goes. The Carolina Panthers are now on the clock. And you may be surprised with who they'll pick...
1) Carolina Panthers: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
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With a strong combine showing, he has all but eliminated any talk of Nick Fairley having the superior tools out of all the DT’s in the draft. Dareus fills the Panthers’ pressing need at DT, and Da’Quan Bowers’ one-hit wonder season implies a greater risk of him being selected in the top five.
Murmurs have since surfaced about the possibility of Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert being selected here, but Jerry Richardson's history shows he is far too frugal an owner to pay #1-pick-QB-money to a guy who carries his own fair share of risks. Until there is a cap on rookie contracts, Dareus is the safest #1 pick this year, and Carolina would be wise to invest in him.
2) Denver Broncos: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
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Champ Bailey just inked a 4-year deal, but how much more the 32-year-old has left in the tank remains to be seen. Andre Goodman is not a long-term answer, and Perrish Cox’s off-the-field troubles are a great cause for concern.
Peterson is a disciplined talent at CB, with physical tools that would put Al Davis into a bliss-coma. We all saw Julio Jones light up the combine with a broken foot, but should also keep in mind that Peterson limited him to just three catches when the two met last season. Seems as close to a sure thing as you can get.
3) Buffalo Bills: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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Love him or hate him, his hype still grows. Saying he did poorly at his pro-day, the combine and the National Championship Game would be overstatements. He was horrendous, yet his stock inexplicably rises.
General manager Buddy Nix has praised Newton, and voiced his intention of addressing Buffalo's quarterback need in the draft- the same way he addressed his desire to deepen the running-back position last year. And look what happened.
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4) Cincinnati Bengals: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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It’s very possible that Bowers falls out of the top 5, but if not, it sense for Cincinnati to pull the trigger on him right here. Despite injury concerns and being a one-hit wonder at Clemson, Bowers provides a sense of relief to a team that may lose its best pass-rusher in Antwan Odom. You think Cincinnati has not drafted a player without his fair share of risks? Andre Smith respectfully disagrees with you.
5) Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
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Can you say "freak?" Miller's athleticism dominated the Senior Bowl and the combine, now imagine what havoc he will wreak when he hones his craft.
Many analysts like the Cardinals taking Blaine Gabbert here, but I disagree. Another dismal season may make Coach Whisenhunt's seat just a little too hot to handle, and I doubt he will put his own future in the hands of a rookie signal-caller. I expect them to pursue a veteran QB to take the helm and let John Skelton develop some more behind him on the depth chart. He showed promise in 2010.
6) Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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Combine a shrewd trade with Denver and a few great draft picks for the offensive line, and you've got a team that can run the ball with the best of them. Now, they must develop Colt McCoy, and what better way than giving him the best receiver in the draft? The rise of Cam Newton and a good-but-not-great combine has dropped Green out of the top five, but Cleveland should be pretty stoked to grab him at six.
7) San Francisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
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Unless Jim Harbaugh plans to kidnap Andrew Luck, lock him in the 49ers training facility, and disguise him with an Alex Smith jersey for the season, then I see the Niners going quarterback here.
Like every quarterback in this draft, Gabbert comes with his own set of question marks. He comes from a spread offense, has accuracy issues, erratic footwork, and his weight seems to fluctuate rather JaMarcus-ly.
Not throwing at the combine may have been the best thing he could have done to help his stock, for his pro-day workout with his familiar receivers silenced many of his critics. For now, Gabbert seems like the best option for the new coaching regime to start out fresh in San Francisco.
8) Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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It seems like the Titans have been trying to lure Albert Haynesworth back ever since they let him go, so why not take something better in Nick Fairley? Tennessee is by no means weak up the middle, but they vacated a spot previously reserved for a vicious force. Fairley's ferocity will surely raise an eyebrow of owner Bud Adams.
9) Dallas Cowboys: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
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With what seems like a rapidly declining secondary, I would be shocked if Dallas does not snatch up the highly-touted Amukamara at nine. Prince did not disappoint at the combine, and is just what the Jerry ordered to bolster last year’s 26th-ranked pass defense.
10) Washington Redskins: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
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If it weren't for his suspension, Quinn could have easily been a first overall selection this year. His speed and size suggest he could be an effective linebacker, but Coach Shanahan may hesitate to go down that route after failing to convert Lorenzo Alexander and Andre Carter.
Regardless of what Quinn plays, the Redskins have too many holes in their defense, and will take help any way they can get it.
11) Houston Texans: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
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A bit of looming uneasiness should strike the heart of every quarterback after watching him reflecting ever so peacefully and hearing him say “It’ll put the biggest smile on me to hit a quarterback and feel the wind come out of his chest.”
But he walks the walk too. Jordan recorded 12.5 tackles for loss, and blew offensive tackles out of the water at the Senior Bowl. Lining up opposite Mario Williams could be just what the Texans need to pressure the quarterback and take a huge weight off of that poor secondary’s shoulders.
12) Minnesota Vikings: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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Early in the offseason, Leslie Frazier expressed his desire to find the next Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco in the draft- but it just doesn’t make sense to reach for a quarterback at 12 after Gabbert and Newton are gone. Perhaps they’ll explore Christian Ponder or Colin Kaepernick in the next round, but for now, the next best thing they can do is find another playmaker for whoever they start under center.
Julio Jones would aid Percy Harvin in giving slower defenses absolute nightmares. Coupling a 6’4″ 220-pound frame with a 4.3 40-yard-dash gives Jones the size and speed to create a mismatch anywhere on the field. More reliable hands would make him a top-5 talent.
13) Detroit Lions: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
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One of the biggest winners of last year’s draft will start off 2011 on the right foot again. Detroit still has some holes to fill before they completely heal the wounds from the oafish stranglehold Matt Millen had on them for so long.
They’ll continue the trend of drafting the best talent available where it makes sense, and Tyron Smith adheres to this principle. The fragility of Matthew Stafford indicates that the weakness at blindside tackle must be addressed.
14) St. Louis Rams: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
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The Rams will just miss out on adding the threat of Julio Jones to Sam Bradford’s arsenal. It doesn’t make sense to reach for a Torrey Smith, Titus Young or a Jonathan Baldwin just yet, so they’ll most likely address an equally important need in DE with James Hall turning 34. Smith will add depth as a naturally gifted football player with pure power and persistence off of the edge.
15) Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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Ronnie Brown is fragile, Ricky Williams is aging, and if Miami doesn’t take Mark Ingram here, he could punish them for the next five years as a New England Patriot. A bullish runner with speed and intangibles will be worth taking over another one of this draft’s shaky QB’s this early.
16) Jacksonville Jaguars: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
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Aaron Kampman looks done after suffering yet another ACL tear, and the defensive-end position is wide-open. To get a pass-rusher of Watt's caliber will certainly bode well for a team that could barely get to the quarterback last season.
At a massive 6’6″ 295, Watt frequently drew double-teams in college, but his performance against them remains in question. What doesn’t remain in question is his ability to make plays behind the line. Over 1/3 of his tackles came behind the snapper in his final collegiate year.
17) New England, Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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Matt Light will be a free agent, Stephen Neal retired, and now New England has to find someone to protect Tom Terrific.
Solder is pure, raw talent and has drawn comparisons to Tony Boselli. His technique could stand to be sharpened, and he will have his share of growing pains, but there isn't a better developmental coach in the league than Bill Belichick. He should believe he can have Solder keeping Brady off of his back for years to come.
18) San Diego Chargers: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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The Chargers’ defensive line isn’t getting any younger, and a defense that hangs its hat on pressuring the quarterback would love to also hang Kerrigan’s jersey in its locker room.
A brilliant young player with intangibles will exhibit a work ethic that even a veteran defense will embrace as its own. This will reign more true if he’s given a chance to shine against AFC West teams such as the Raiders and Chiefs that are in massive need of an upgrade at offensive tackle.
19. New York Giants: Akeem Ayers, OLB/DE, UCLA
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Have the Giants ever resisted snatching up a pass-rusher?
Make no mistake- if the Giants can't find what they're looking for at offensive tackle at 19, expect them to look over in Ayers' direction. He has the same athleticism that attracted them to Jason Pierre-Paul last year, but is versatile enough to roam the second-level and have his hand in the dirt. He should fit well in Perry Fewell's scheme.
20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Justin Houston, DE, Georgia
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A young defense gets even younger with this pick, but also more multi-dimensional. Fresh off of a sterling combine, Justin Houston may have propelled himself into the top-20. They need to improve their pass-rush, and Houston’s proven ability to drop back into coverage gives the Bucs a multitude of new ways to confound the tough quarterback competition within their division.
21) Kansas City Chiefs: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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Brandon Albert should have shown Todd Haley by now that he is not a long-term solution at left-tackle. The Chiefs need to keep Matt Cassell out of pressure so he can continue to make good decisions with the football like he did throughout last season. Castonzo has phenomenal athleticism for an offensive lineman, and should more than help pave the way for Jamaal Charles to blaze through to the next level.
22) Indianapolis Colts: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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There is no way Bill Polian enjoyed seeing Peyton Manning under pressure last season, and no doubt will he look to protect his most valuable asset with his first pick. Carimi should do a fine job of that.
23) Philadelphia Eagles: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
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I know Eagles’ fans remember the image of a dumbfounded Winston Justice sitting on the sidelines in their defeat to the Packers in last January's playoff loss, so expect his replacement to be found here.
Jason Peters will continue to excel and protect Michael Vick’s left side, but having a force like Sherrod lined-up right will give Vick extra lateral freedom. As if he wasn’t hard enough to contain…
24) New Orleans Saints: Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
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Originally, I was going to mock Phil Taylor here, but the Saints may not have to reach for a defensive tackle in the first round after signing Shaun Rodgers.
Pierre Thomas just inked a deal to keep himself in New Orleans for the immediate future, but the same can’t be said for Reggie Bush at the moment. Chris Ivory provided a burst in wake of the injured committee ahead of him on the depth chart, but he too was prone to the wear and tear of the season.
Leshoure would be a luxurious insurance policy if Reggie Bush doesn’t don the gold and black next year. Although he is a different breed than Bush, his elusiveness and size make him attractive for any team needing backfield depth.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida
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It almost seems criminal that a 7-9 team has to pick so far down in the draft order, but it's more than a safe assumption to say most people agree the real robbery happened with Seattle's playoff berth.
The 'Hawks couldn't stay healthy on the offensive line last year, and need vast improvement on the interior. If the best guard in the draft is available here, they should pull the trigger.
It's also very possible that Seattle trades this pick to Philadelphia for Kevin Kolb, like rumors are suggesting. What this more-so suggests is how dismal the quarterbacks in this years draft are if Kevin Kolb is drawing first-round offers.
26) Baltimore Ravens: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
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The Ravens made every attempt during last season’s free agency period to find weapons for Joe Flacco, but still remain weak and aging at wide receiver.
Torrey Smith, like Julio Jones, is a rare combination of size and speed that the Ravens so desperately need to stretch the field. Earlier in the offseason, I would have projected Titus Young to go here, but I expect Smith’s size and more impressive combine showing to overshadow him.
27) Atlanta Falcons: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple
27 of 32Wilkerson missed out on an opportunity to showcase his talent at a bowl game, however, a great combine-showing has led many scouts and analysts to resume talking about this run-stopping monstrosity. With 9.5 sacks in 2010, the Falcons can look to Wilkerson to help out a pass-rush that averaged just under two sacks per game.
28) New England Patriots: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
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Despite some character issues, Phil Taylor will land in the first round of this season’s draft, after turning heads all over the combine.
He is a virtually immovable force at defensive tackle, and showed up to the combine a slim 334 pounds. Yes, I meant to type “slim” there. He would provide great depth alongside Vince Wilfork or Ty Warren, but I would not be surprised if the Patriots trade down here.
29) Chicago Bears: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
29 of 32The Bears have a gaping Tommie Harris-sized hole in the middle of their defensive line, and need to fill it with another 300 pound frame.
The legit Liuget is keen on having an upfield pass-rush ability as well as stopping the run. He may be the best player on the board at this point, and he adds the convenience of filling a great need for the Bears.
30) New York Jets: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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Once considered a top talent, Clayborn has seen his stock fall after enduring a dismal 2010 campaign. His character issues also came to light recently, but Rex Ryan could take a chance on filling Jason Taylor's spot with what could be a great pass-rusher for years to come.
31) Pittsburgh Steelers: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
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Defense wins championships, and any Steelers fan can tell you that their biggest defensive weaknesses reside on the far sides of the field.
Aaron Rodgers seemed to have little trouble dissecting Pittsburgh's backfield, despite persistent and complex blitz packages. Jimmy Smith is the most talented CB in the draft behind Peterson and Amukamara, but it is a very distant third place.
32) Green Bay Packers: Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
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An unhealthy running game draws red flags for the front-office, but no running backs in the draft really warrant a pick at the end of the first round. While Donald Driver ages and James Jones’ future in green and gold remains uncertain, expect the Pack to reload with another deep weapon for Aaron Rodgers.
Hankerson drew some perhaps unfair comparisons to Andre Johnson while in his final season at “the U,” but they both dazzled spectators with their vertical ability, and pure knack for the end-zone. Hankerson could become an immediate favorite for Rodgers.
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