NFL Mock Draft 2011: Comparing the Latest Mocks from Around the Web
The countdown continues, and so does my draft coverage.
A mere 38 days away from Round 1, we now take a broader, pundit-based look at the most likely choice for each team. It’s an attempt to see the world through a variety of perspectives, and out of them form a consensus—the pick most frequently reasoned by the experts.
It’s supposed to be akin to a draft democracy.
As such, this slideshow is brought to you by Doritos Extreme—snack strong.
Know Your Pundits
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Rob Rang: March 14th, 2011
Rang is a senior analyst and draft guru at NFLDraftScout.com, a partner of CBSSports.com. His NFL Draft analysis is widely distributed by The Sports XChange.
Mel Kiper: March 9th, 2011
Since 1984, Mel has provided expert analysis for ESPN's annual coverage of the NFL Draft. He frequently contributes to ESPN's SportsCenter and you can catch him on ESPN radio or on ESPN.com doing various articles and chat sessions. Legend has it that every hair Chris Berman loses attaches itself to Mel’s bouffant.
Todd McShay: March 16th, 2011
McShay is the director of college scouting for Scouts Inc. and he is a frequent contributor to ESPN’s draft coverage. He is the Anna Nicole Smith to Kiper’s (still virile) James Marshall.
Pat Kirwan: March 13th, 2011
Pat Kirwan began his NFL career in 1972 after coaching high school and college football. He spent eight years (1989-97) with the New York Jets, beginning as a defensive assistant coach and advancing to director of player administration, where he negotiated contracts and managed the team's salary cap. Before his time with the Jets, Kirwan was an area scout for the Phoenix Cardinals (1989) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1983-'86). In addition to writing for NFL.com, Kirwan is a contributor to CBS Sports' NFL Today and is co-host on Sirius NFL Radio. He is the only analyst on our panel who could pass for Dave Wannstedt.
Steve Wyche: March 10th, 2011
Wyche is a 20-year veteran of sports journalism. He has covered the NFL, the NBA and college football for The Richmond Times-Dispatch, the Miami Herald and most recently, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Wyche was born in Minneapolis, raised in St. Louis and educated at Howard University. I have nothing quippy to say about Steve Wyche—he just looks like a happy guy.
Don Banks: March 9th, 2011
Banks covers the NFL year-round and writes the popular "Snap Judgments" for Sports Illustrated. Banks also serves as SI.com's designated mock draft specialist.
Ryan Braun: March 11th, 2011
Ryan Braun works for Bleacher Report. He was a proponent of selecting David Terrell over Koren Robinson in the 2001 NFL Draft and he has never been paid any amount of money to professionally analyze anything. He is a frequent contributor to Studio City Yogurt.
1. Carolina Panthers (Needs: DT, QB, CB, OLB, DE)
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Rang: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Kiper: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
McShay: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Kirwan: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Wyche: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Banks: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Braun: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Consensus: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Runner-Up: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Third-Party Analysis: I like Braun’s pick here. I can tell just by reading it that he is smart and particularly handsome.
That said, it’s hard not to notice the Gabbert train gathering steam in the weeks leading up to the draft. I think the Panthers should be eyeing the top defenders—Dareus, Bowers and Peterson are all superior players to Gabbert—but I can’t deny there exists a sentiment that you must take a quarterback when given the opportunity. Ten of the last 13 No. 1 picks have been quarterbacks, and only one of the three non-QB-selecting teams had a hole at quarterback.
Most outside the Clausen family think the Panthers have that hole, and for that reason I think Gabbert will be the pick.
For the first time in recent memory, Carolina will keep us guessing up until Goodell calls a name, as their pick will be precluded from signing prior to the draft.
2. Denver Broncos (Needs: DT, LB, TE, DS, DE)
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Rang: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Kiper: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
McShay: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Kirwan: Marcell Darues, DT, Alabama
Wyche: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Banks: Marcell Dareus, DE/DT, Alabama
Braun: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Consensus: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Runner-Up: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Third-Party Analysis: Again, Braun makes a strong argument (he’s very relatable).
Peterson is the best defensive player in the draft, and quite possible the top guy overall. How 70 percent of our panel has him sliding to seven, I’ll never know.
But if not Peterson, I think that Dareus is a great choice.
In the past few weeks, he’s emerged as the top lineman in the draft. He ran a 4.93 at the combine (at 318 pounds!) and performed very well at his pro day. Meanwhile, the Fairley hype is dying down—Kiper (as of March 9th) is the last man still touting the Auburn tackle for the top three—and Denver is in desperate need of an upgrade on the defensive line.
Peterson may be the best player, but for a team that finished last in nearly every defensive category, Dareus is the best fit.
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3. Buffalo Bills (Needs: LOT, QB, 3-4 DE, 3-4 OLB, TE)
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Rang: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Kiper: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
McShay: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Kirwan: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Wyche: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Banks: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Braun: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Consensus: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Runner-Up: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Third-Party Analysis: That’s enough of the Braun lead-ins (overexposed much?), but I’ll just end it with this. If there were a categorical designation of savants associated with the NFL Draft, he would probably be in it.
OK, it’s Dareus again. That can happen because we’re drafting by consensus so as to provide the pundits’ optimum scenario for each team. What’s interesting is that this pick is one of only six repeat picks in the entire mock. For a randomly compiled list, that is pretty incredible.
For all the aforementioned reasons, I like Dareus at this pick. Buffalo had the worst run defense in the league last season and it is nearly as needy as Denver on the defensive line.
But even taking all that into consideration, Rob Rang’s pick here is actually the most interesting to me. He says: “The Bills have gone out of their way to laud the play of incumbent starter Ryan Fitzpatrick, but are also believed to be very high on Newton’s potential…GM Budy Nix and coach Chan Gailey showed their willingness to gamble on athleticism last year with the selection of C.J. Spiller. Don’t put it past them to do the same this year should Newton be on the board.”
It’s an intriguing pick because it’s a massive identity overhaul, and since the Bills aren’t winning anything in the next few years regardless, now would seem a plausible time to embark on such an endeavor.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (Needs: QB, WR, DT, OT, RB)
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Rang: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Kiper: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
McShay: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Kirwan: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Wyche: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Banks: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Braun: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Consensus: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Runner-Up: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Third-Party Analysis: Green is the most sensible pick—the one who best adheres to, then builds on, the status quo.
The argument for the runner-up, be it ultimately Newton or Gabbert, is that Carson Palmer is not coming back. In fact, I would go so far as to say that A.J. Green’s selection is entirely contingent on Palmer’s return, and that is so far from a certainty that I’m surprised Green’s remained the consensus.
One month ago, I thought there was no way the draft’s top receiver dropped past the Bengals.
Now, I’m not sure how they take him.
5. Arizona Cardinals (Needs: QB, OLB, OT/OG, TE, CB)
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Rang: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Kiper: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
McShay: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Kirwan: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Wyche: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Banks: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Braun: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Consensus: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Runner-Up: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Third-Party Analysis: I think there’s a pretty good chance the pick will be Von Miller, the outside linebacker out of Texas A&M.
The alternatives are the quarterbacks, but it’s looking increasingly likely that at least one will be gone. Plus, with Larry Fitzgerald now in his prime, I’m not so sure the Cardinals won’t be looking for a veteran to ignite the passing game immediately. By the time Newton or Gabbert get up to speed, the league’s preeminent jump-ball threat would be 30.
The Cardinals could desperately use an OLB, and the learning curve for the premiere sack artist in college football figures to be much smaller.
6. Cleveland Browns (Needs: DE, WR, DT, CB, OT)
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Rang: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Kiper: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
McShay: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Kirwan: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Wyche: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Banks: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Braun: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Consensus: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Runner-Up: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Third-Party Analysis: Rang, McShay and Banks all have Bowers going to the Browns? I have to say that’s intriguing to say the least, and it’s one of the few scenarios in which the fall of a premiere guy perhaps overrides the sexiness of an A.J. Green pick. The Browns need at DE is every bit as great as their need at WR, and if he’s there, Bowers might be too good to pass up.
One more note: If, as happens in both the Rang and McShay drafts, both Peterson and Bowers slip to the Browns, the choice has to be Peterson. He might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer (as we’ll be discussing in the next slide), but if the game plan is whittled down to "don’t let your guy catch the ball," I think he’s a Pro Bowler from Year 1 on.
7. San Francisco 49ers (Needs: QB, NT, CB, OLB, Big WR)
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Rang: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Kiper: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
McShay: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Kirwan: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A
Wyche: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Banks: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Braun: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Consensus: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
RUNNER-UP: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Third-Party Analysis: Braun and Kirwan are making a stand. As aforementioned, I don’t want the Browns passing on Peterson even for Bowers, and I find it hard to believe that five other teams would too.
Except for testing low on the Wonderlic, Peterson has done nothing to merit a fall. Mel Kiper, speaking on behalf of our panel, provides the closest thing we get to an explanation: “There were a lot of comments questioning why I could see my No. 1 overall Big Board player dropping this far on draft day. In 1987, I had Rod Woodson rated similarly, and he fell to No. 10 overall. In 1989, Deion Sanders was far and away the best athlete on the board—he fell to No. 5. Champ Bailey was my best athlete and the top corner available in the 1999 draft, and he fell to No. 7.”
I’m not so sure that his references are 100-percent applicable, seeing as how the most recent example he gave occurred 12 years ago, but I suppose the position-induced fall does happen.
And boy could San Francisco use a cornerback (and/or a return man).
8. Tennessee Titans (Needs: QB, DT, ILB, OG, CB)
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Rang: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Kiper: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
McShay: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Kirwan: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Wyche: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Banks: Nick Fairley, DT, LSU
Braun: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Consensus: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Runner-Up: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Third-Party Analysis: I think the logic for Fairley at this pick is ultimately tapping into something I tried to say in my last mock, namely that there are too many good players at the top of this draft for any of the top five teams to go after him.
As dynamic as he can be, there are too many question marks.
Talent-wise, Fairley is an absolute steal here for the Titans, but given their recent history with Albert Haynesworth, Vince Young and Pacman Jones, I still think it’s more likely we see Amukamara in Tennessee and the Auburn tackle in Dallas.
9. Dallas Cowboys (Needs: 3-4 DE, OT, ILB, DS, OG)
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Rang: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Kiper: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
McShay: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Kirwan: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Wyche: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
Banks: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Braun: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Consensus: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Runner-Up: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Third-Party Analysis: This would represent a coup for the Cowboys. Still, it’s relatively likely to happen.
Dallas employed the seventh-worst pass defense in the league last season, and as time takes its toll on Terrence Newman, they’re likely to get worse. Amukamara is a just a hair behind Patrick Peterson physically, he may be the more versatile player and he is definitely a safer pick. The Nebraska corner posted all 4.4 times at the combine, and according to Sporting News’ Russ Lande, he looked very smooth during his pro day. Pick No. 9 is as far as he’ll fall.
Wyche is about 10 picks early with Castonzo. If Dallas goes OT here, I could only see them looking at Tyron Smith. He’s the tackle with the most athleticism and the highest upside, both typically staples of a Jerry Jones draft pick.
10. Washington Redskins (Needs: QB, NT, WR, OLB, ROT/OG)
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Rang: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Kiper: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
McShay: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Kirwan: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Wyche: Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri
Banks: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Braun: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Consensus: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Runner-Up: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Third-Party Analysis: Well, I’ll say this—either way the Redskins are making out. Julio Jones is a legit No. 1 and he is just a shade behind A.J. Green as the top receiver in this class, and J.J. Watt is an animal while fitting nicely in the 3-4.
I think the Redskins' most pressing need is at defensive end (Vonnie Holiday is old and Adam Carriker is bad), but wide receiver is not far behind. Santana Moss, both aging and a free agent, was far and away the most productive receiver on the team last year. Julio Jones would instantly bolster the receiving corps, and his RAC ability makes him a great fit for Mike Shanahan’s offense.
If only they had someone to throw him the ball.
11. Houston Texans (Needs: CB, FS, OLB, NT, SS)
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Rang: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Kiper: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
McShay: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Kirwan: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Wyche: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Banks: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Braun: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Consensus: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Runner-Up: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Third-Party Analysis: Here’s a really interesting consensus/runner-up juxtaposition. Do you take Cameron Jordan, perhaps the steadiest, most reliable defensive end in this class, or Robert Quinn, the electric-but-undersized sack artist who hasn’t played in a year?
Consensus says Jordan, who is a better fit for the 3-4.
The Texans will also be in the market for a CB, but I doubt Amukamara falls to this pick.
12. Minnesota Vikings (Needs: QB, FS, OT, DT, C)
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Rang: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Kiper: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
McShay: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College)
Kirwan: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Wyche: Cam Newton, OB, Auburn
Banks: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Braun: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Consensus: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Runner-Up: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Third-Party Analysis: Mallett to the Vikings; this is my genius pick.
For now, the genius stands alone.
The justification for either Mallett or Locker here is almost identical, I just believe Mallett better fits what the Vikings want to do. Essentially, though, every pundit who chose a quarterback in this slot did so because of its presumed importance to the Vikings moving forward.
And what I mean by that is simple: The Vikings need a quarterback immediately. However good Smith, Quinn or Castonzo might be, they won’t push Minnesota beyond eight wins if Joe Webb is their starter.
13. Detroit Lions (Needs: CB, WLB, SLB, OT, RB)
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Rang: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Kiper: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
McShay: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Kirwan: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Wyche: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Banks: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Braun: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Consensus: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Runner-Up: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Third-Party Analysis: Protecting Matthew Stafford is priority No. 1 in Detroit, and it’s quite possible the Lions will have their pick of the top tackles in this class. Both Solder and Smith offer significant upside, and both lack the requisite bulk to dominate from Day 1.
Like the pundits, I think Smith gets the nod here, as he is just a tad more athletic and seems to have the body to add size naturally.
Solder is 6'8", 319 pounds, but he has had trouble keeping that weight on.
Amukamara would be nice, but I doubt he’s available.
14. St. Louis Rams (Needs: WR, OLB, DE, RB, OG)
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Rang: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Kiper: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
McShay: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Kirwan: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Wyche: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Banks: Aldon Smith, DE/LB, Missouri
Braun: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Consensus: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Runner-Up: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Third-Party Analysis: I think everyone this side of Matt Millen believes that the Rams will take Julio Jones here, so the more pertinent question is regarding his availability.
Should Jones get past Washington, I think St. Louis gets its man.
Meanwhile, the ESPN boys combine forces to lift Liuget into the runner-up position. It’s nice to see Kiper and McShay working together, but that pick seems like it was birthed in the Bristol cafeteria—I’ve seen it nowhere else.
15. Miami Dolphins (Needs: RB, OG, QB, FS, ILB)
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Rang: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Kiper: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
McShay: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Kirwan: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Wyche: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Banks: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Braun: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Consensus: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Runner-Up: None
Third-Party Analysis: Somehow, I feel like this means Ingram won’t be the pick.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (Needs: FS, OLB, WR, QB, DE)
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Rang: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
Kiper: Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri
McShay: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
Kirwan: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Wyche: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Banks: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Braun: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Consensus: Aldon Smith, OLB/DE, Missouri
Runner-Up: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Third-Party Analysis: A few qualms with this one. Aldon is a very acceptable pick and who am I to argue with odds? But let me play Gerard Butler here for a second.
Aldon Smith is a project—a little light for a DE, untested as a LB—and as such, he’s a riskier pick than either Kerrigan or Jordan. Smith is a top-notch athlete, but does he really blow the other two DEs so far out of the water that he negates their stability and relative lack of risk? That I’m not so sure of.
Jacksonville could use a youth infusion on the defensive line, and Jordan seems to me to be the best option on the board.
17. New England Patriots (Needs: OLB, DE, OT, OG, RB)
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Rang: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Kiper: Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, Purdue
McShay: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Kirwan: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
Wyche: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Banks: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Braun: Aldon Smith, DE/LB, Missouri
Consensus: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Runner-Up: Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue
Third-Party Analysis: Watt is an absolute steal here, and he would represent a significant upgrade for the Patriots. He’s perhaps the best 3-4 end in the draft.
I’m not quite convinced the consensus is accurate in assuming Watt will be available, but even should that turn out not to be the case, Kerrigan—essentially a lighter version of Watt—would be an excellent consolation prize.
18. San Diego Chargers (Needs: 3-4 DE, ILB, 3-4 OLB, ROT, WR)
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Rang: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
Kiper: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
McShay: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple
Kirwan: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Wyche: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Banks: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
Braun: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA
Consensus: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple
Runner-Up: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Third-Party Analysis: Rang and McShay have converted me here.
Wilkerson may not project as a 3-4 end to every team, but he is versatile enough to play there for San Diego and he is a far superior player to Ayers.
Wilkerson is extremely athletic and he was Temple’s MVP for the 2010 season, registering 70 tackles, 9.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss.
Cameron Jordan at 3-4 end and Robert Quinn at 3-4 OLB are both interesting picks here, but I think the former is likely to be gone by this point while the latter is far more of a risk.
19. New York Giants (Needs: LB, C/LOG, TE, RB, DT)
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Rang: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Kiper: Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida
McShay: Mike Pouncey, OG/C, Florida
Kirwan: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Wyche: Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
Banks: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
Braun: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Consensus: Mike Pouncey, OG/C, Florida
Runner-Up: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Third-Party Analysis: Braun is an idiot for second-guessing his initial sentiments on Tyron Smith. There’s no way he falls to the Giants here.
As it were, the consensus predicts Mike Pouncey while the runner-up suggests the top eligible tackle.
Everyone is on the right track here. Ultimately, I think OT is a greater need for New York, but they could use depth all across the line. I suppose with the ineptitude spreading throughout the unit, the Giants are actually granted some flexibility with this pick.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Needs: DE, MLB, CB, OLB, RB)
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Rang: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Kiper: Justin Houston, DE, Georgia
McShay: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Kirwan: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
Wyche: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Banks: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Braun: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Consensus: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Runner-Up: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Third-Party Analysis: Kerrigan would immediately improve a pass rush that recorded only 26 sacks in 2010. Last year, the Academic All-American recorded 13 by himself, to go along with 70 tackles, 26 tackles for loss and five forced fumbles.
At 6'4", 263 pounds, he is a little light for a 4-3 end, but he figures to make up for that with his elite strength. Kerrigan is one of the top weightlifters to ever come out of the Purdue program.
Clayborn is the runner-up because he is the most talented guy save for Cameron Jordan, and Jordan is least likely to be there.
21. Kansas City Chiefs (Needs: NT, WR, ROT, ILB, OLB)
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Rang: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
Kiper: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
McShay: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Kirwan: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
Wyche: Nate Solder, OL, Colorado
Banks: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
Braun: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
Consensus: None
Runner-Up: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
Third-Party Analysis: You know what they say—when in doubt, stick with the man with the least possible experience (his mind is less clouded).
The Chiefs defense was significantly improved last season (11th in the league by way of points allowed versus 29th the year before), but they still struggled to get to the quarterback. Making matters worse, star sack man Tamba Hali is in franchise-tag limbo, and it’s unclear how the new CBA will affect his status.
Houston was second among linebackers with 30 bench press reps at the combine, and he posted a 4.68 40 time (seventh among linebackers) while weighing in at 270 pounds.
22. Indianapolis Colts (Needs: OT, OG, DT, CB, SS)
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Rang: Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida
Kiper: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
McShay: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Kirwan: Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
Wyche: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Banks: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Braun: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
Consensus: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
Runner-Up: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Third-Party Analysis: Castonzo is a great pick here. Solder would be even better, but he’s far more likely to be gone.
As it is, Castonzo is smart, experienced and very well rounded. What he lacks in power and athleticism, he makes up for in nuance and know-how.
The Colts haven’t drafted an offensive lineman in the first round since 1997, and they began to pay for it last season. This year, they take a step toward rectification.
23. Philadelphia Eagles (Needs: CB, OLB, ROG, OT, QB)
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Rang: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Kiper: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
McShay: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Kirwan: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
Wyche: Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois
Banks: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Braun: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Consensus: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Runner-Up: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
Third-Party Analysis: The Eagles' top need is either corner or OT, and in the pundits’ eyes Carimi is the most applicable prospect on the board.
My only qualm with the giant Badger has to do with the relative lack of emphasis there was on pass blocking at Wisconsin. Carimi is a steamroller, but it remains a major question mark how he’ll fare outside of a run-heavy offense, and whether he’ll be able to handle NFL-level ends on the pass rush.
Sherrod offers a less developed prospect, but one with more potential.
24. New Orleans Saints (Needs: DE, OLB, SS, DT, RB)
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Rang: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
Kiper: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
McShay: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Kirwan: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
Wyche: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Perdue
Banks: Justin Houston, LB/DE, Georgia
Braun: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Consensus: Justin Houston, OLB/DE, Georgia
Runner-Up: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Third-Party Analysis: The Saints desperately need to help out Will Smith by finding someone to rush off the alternate edge, and that’s what they’d be looking for from either Houston or Kerrigan.
Houston emerges as the consensus on the heels of his strong combine performance.
25. Seattle Seahawks (Needs: OT, OG/C, QB, OLB, CB)
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Rang: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Kiper: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
McShay: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Kirwan: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Wyche: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Banks: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Braun: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Consensus: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Runner-Up: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Third-Party Analysis: Rang and I essentially traded quarterbacks here.
Just as I think Mallett best fits the Vikings, Locker seems a more likely match for the Seahawks. Mobile, strong-armed and potentially a good fit for the West Coast offense, Locker needs only to show improvement in his accuracy to become a capable quarterback.
Matt Hasselbeck is not guaranteed to return, and while the Seahawks traded for Charlie Whitehurst only a year ago, they have given no indication since then that they’re grooming him for anything more than a backup role.
Whitehurst is the owner of perhaps the best nickname in the NFL—“Clipboard Jesus."
26. Baltimore Ravens (Needs: CB, WR, OT, DE, FS)
27 of 33
Rang: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Kiper: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
McShay: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
Kirwan: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
Wyche: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Banks: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Braun: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
Consensus: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Runner-Up: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
Third-Party Analysis: This is from Todd McShay: “A player like Jimmy Smith is an option but Smith comes with character baggage and he isn’t worth the risk here.”
My thoughts? As long as Ray Lewis is in that locker room, it becomes unthinkable not to fall in line with what the Ravens do defensively, with how hard they play. And because Lewis has affected the culture to such a strong degree, I doubt that will change even after he retires.
Look at some of the Ravens' recent draft picks like Ngata and Suggs. Both were elite talents with character concerns. On the Ravens, they’re just elite talents.
If he’s available, Jimmy Smith is the top pick here. The Ravens get their Chris McAlister back.
27. Atlanta Falcons (Needs: Rush DE, OLB, TE, WR, ROT/OG)
28 of 33
Rang: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Kiper: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
McShay: Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia
Kirwan: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
Wyche: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
Banks: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Braun: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
Consensus: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Runner-Up: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
Third-Party Analysis: I wanted to go with Kyle Rudolph as the runner-up, but seeing as how there were two corners selected, I figured that consensus defines CB as a more significant position of need. Thus, Aaron Williams.
Clayborn is probably the premier talent on the board at this point. He’s big (6'4", 285 pounds), relatively fast (4.83 combine 40) and a legitimate three-down end.
According to Todd McShay, Gabe Carimi called Clayborn the best DE he’s faced at the college level.
28. New England Patriots (Needs: OLB, DE, OT, OG, RB)
29 of 33
Rang: Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
Kiper: Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
McShay: Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue
Kirwan: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple
Wyche: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
Banks: Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida
Braun: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Consensus: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Runner-Up: Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
Third-Party Analysis: Again, I’m kind of amazed at how few repeat picks the "consensus method" has generated. Here we find the runner-up to the Patriots No. 17 pick falling to them at 28th. I think that means one way or another, the Patriots are drafting Ryan Kerrigan.
He’d be an excellent fit in a defense that needs to boost its pass-rushing ability. Kerrigan registered 13 sacks last year, to go along with 70 tackles, 26 for loss. He projects to NE as a hybrid 3-4 DE/OLB.
29. Chicago Bears (Needs: LOT, DT, WR, C, OLB)
30 of 33
Rang: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Kiper: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
McShay: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
Kirwan: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
Wyche: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
Banks: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
Braun: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Consensus: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Runner-Up: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
Third-Party Analysis: Liuget is a legitimate top-20 talent, but he could see a fall simply on account of the strength of defensive linemen in this class.
According to Rang: “His strength, surprising quickness and low center of gravity could make him an ideal fit for the Bears, especially with Chicago’s recent release of Tommie Harris."
The Bears desperately need an OT, but McShay and Banks both admit that Sherrod is a bit of a reach at 29.
30. New York Jets (Needs: OLB, NT, DE, WR, OT/OG)
31 of 33
Rang: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
Kiper: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
McShay: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
Kirwan: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
Wyche: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
Banks: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
Braun: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
Consensus: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
Runner-Up: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
Third-Party Analysis: Kiper’s being stubborn here.
The Jets need to address their defensive line if they want to continue defending as they have been the past few seasons. Kris Jenkins has not played more than six games in three years, and Taylor is the type of stout, wide tackle who could replicate what he does.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers (Needs: OT/OG, CB, NT, WR, TE)
32 of 33
Rang: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
Kiper: Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
McShay: Orlando Franklin, OG, Miami (FL)
Kirwan: Danny Watkins, G/C, Baylor
Wyche: Ben Ijalana, OL, Villanova
Banks: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
Braun: Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida
Consensus: Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
Runner-Up: Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida
Third-Party Analysis: Pittsburgh could use help just about anywhere on the offensive line, and while Pouncey would make the better story, it’s quite possible that Watkins would be the better fit.
The Baylor guard is versatile, mature and tough, and he would step in from Day 1 next to last year’s top pick Maurkice Pouncey.
32. Green Bay Packers (Needs: DE, OLB, OG, WR, RB)
33 of 33
Rang: Martez Wilson, ILB, Illinois
Kiper: Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona
McShay: Brooks Reed, DE/OLB, Arizona
Kirwan: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Wyche: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
Banks: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT/DE, Temple
Braun: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
Consensus: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT/DE, Temple
Runner-Up: Brooks Reed, DE/OLB, Arizona
Third-Party Analysis: I love the Wilkerson pick for the Packers. I’ve had it in each of my mock drafts so far. The Temple star is big, productive and exceedingly athletic. His versatility projects him well to any defensive front in the NFL.
The biggest question mark now regards his availability. The closer we get to the draft, the more it looks like his potential will have him off the board closer to the middle of the first round.
If he’s gone, a player like Brooks Reed becomes a viable option to take some of the pass-rushing pressure off Clay Matthews. McShay believes Reed has the “quick feet, violent hands and relentlessness it takes to succeed as a 3-4 outside linebacker.”
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