Miami Dolphins Will Not Draft Alabama's Mark Ingram: Here's Why

Almost every mock draft in existence has Alabama's Mark Ingram heading to the Miami Dolphins as the 15th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.  The idea makes sense at first glance, but it almost certainly is not going to happen.

Rarely have draft experts so consistently agreed on a pick this far ahead of time, especially as to a pick so far down the draft order.  Projected picks usually usually change on a weekly basis even in a single analyst's attempts to project the draft, so it is rare that two analysts ever simultaneously agree on much of anything.  NFL mock drafts are a hodgepodge of conflicting, competing voices, shouting aimlessly in the wilderness in different directions.

Not so with Mark Ingram and the Miami Dolphins. Practically every single version, of every single mock draft, by every single NFL draft analyst, sees Ingram taking his talents to South Beach. Most Dolphins fans have probably stopped even bothering to read them—their morning cereal contains more surprises.

An undeniable logic underlies the Ingram-to-Miami projection.  The Dolphins are set to lose both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to free agency and need a replacement.  Dolphins' Head Coach Tony Sparano prefers a conservative game plan that would benefit from a reliable back, and the Dolphins would be well served to rely on a runner regardless, because they don't have a reliable quarterback.  Ingram, a former Heisman Trophy winner, is the best running back in the draft.  He is the type of physical, hard-to-tackle runner the Dolphins desperately need, as their shaky offensive line incapable of creating big holes.  Best of all, he is projected by most to still be on the board for the 15th pick.

The problem is, Dolphins are not going to end up picking 15th. 

Consider that in 2010 Miami traded away their second round picks for both that year and this one in order to acquire Brandon Marshall.  Last April, the Dolphins chose to recoup that pick by trading their 12th overall pick for San Diego's 28th and 45th, reasoning that the teams 7-9 finish proved it had too many flaws for one high draft pick alone to solve. 

Every relevant factor suggests history will repeat itself.

Fresh off another 7-9 campaign, Ireland has already said he would like to somehow find a second round pick again this year.  The Dolphins are four or five starting caliber players away from being a true contender and are not likely to fill any of these holes on this year's team below round three.  The same reasons behind the Dolphins' trading down last year still exist today.

If the Dolphins want to regain a second round pick, trading down in the first round is the only way they can do it, given the lack of a collective bargaining agreement prevents trading actual players.  Even if a labor deal between now and the draft, Miami does not have a disposable player with that kind of value. The only option is to trade down. 

But if the Dolphins trade down to a late first round pick, Ingram is not likely to be available.     

The only thing that might keep the Dolphins in the 15th spot would be the lack of an interested trading partner.  But if San Diego traded up to the 12 spot last year to draft Ryan Matthews, it is hard to fathom that not a single team would trade up to the less costly 15th spot to draft a player once voted as college football's best. And even if no team wants to trade up for Ingram, they still might be willing to trade up for someone, especially if a coveted quarterback drops. 

If Ingram was somehow still on the board when the Dolphins ultimately draft, it is still no sure thing he would end up in teal and orange.  In three drafts as Miami's General Manager, Ireland has never used a number one pick on an offensive skill player and never even used a second round pick on a running back, receiver or tight end.  With the Dolphins lacking offensive line depth and at least one productive safety, the front office's draft history suggests they will be tempted to fill these holes first. This is especially so given the success achieved by a number of late-round and undrafted running backs, whom the Dolphins could obtain at a cheaper price. 

So Dolphins fans would be wise to ignore the so-called experts and hold off on buying that number 22 jersey.  Its chances of reading "Ingram" on its back come April are much lower than the experts suggest.