NFL Mock Draft 2011: 1st Round Predictions for Julio Jones, Cam Newton and More
I know others out there are biting on it, but I'm not taking the Cam Newton bait.
I saw the news that the Carolina Panthers had six people there during his pro day workout last week at school. The team has admitted he is among those players they are considering with their first pick and are planning to bring him in for private workouts.
My take: this is liar's poker. You throw out all sorts of wild and crazy comments, doing whatever you can to create misdirection. Happens all the time.
No way the Panthers are this gutsy. They've got to go with the sure thing and there are still way too many questions with Newton. Carolina also has to many needs to fill. They can't miss with their No.1 pick.
There have been some changes here in this draft. Pay attention to Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers. Seems his knee could be a little worse than we've been told, but Bowers still hasn't had his pro day either. If he slides, everything shifts.
I have added in some new information in some spots, but a lot has stayed the same too. Let's proceed.
1. Carolina: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
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In earlier mocks, I had Dareus going seventh to San Francisco, but something tells me he's not lasting past the fifth pick.
In 11 games last year, Dareus had 34 tackles, 11 tackles for loss (41 yards), 4.5 sacks (26 yards), four passes broken up, four pass deflections and 10 quarterback hurries
"This is my favorite player in the country this year," Mike Mayock of the NFL Network writes. "He has tremendous foot speed for a player his size. He can play the nose, the three-technique and showed he can play the five-technique. From my perspective, I don't think he can possibly get past Denver at No. 2."
Dareus is a great building block for the future, and he's got just the kind of nastiness you want in a defensive lineman.
2. Denver: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
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I think Denver will shift its focus now that it's retained Champ Bailey. They need plenty of help on defense, and some mocks have had Denver even taking Von Miller from Texas A&M.
He's probably the safest bet in this class, but I think John Fox sticks with Fairley. Overpowering defensive linemen who can shed double teams like he does are a rarity.
The All-American, Lombardi Award winner and Southeastern Conference Player of the Year played in 14 games, finishing with 60 total tackles (36 solo), a school-record 24 tackles for loss (106 yards), 11.5 sacks for 74 yards, and 21 quarterback hurries.
3. Buffalo: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M
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Even though he's a top 10 lock, watch and see if Miller's stock drops a little since he's one of the plaintiffs filing suit against the NFL.
"I know that Von really felt truly honored to be asked to essentially represent the rookie class in this action, knowing who else was involved from the veterans' side," Joby Branion, executive director of Athletes First of Irvine, Calif., said in a phone interview with USA Today.
"Any time you can have your name connected with Tom Brady and (the others), those are just fantastic players who are also proven human beings."
Last year, Miller had 68 total tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss (101 yards), 10.5 sacks (81 yards), one interception, six passes broken up, seven pass deflections, six quarterback hurries and two fumble recoveries
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4. Cincinnati: QB Cam Newton, Auburn
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The Charlotte Observer reports that along with Carolina, Newton has scheduled workouts with Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, Cleveland, Tennessee, Washington, Minnesota and Seattle.
Newton completed 11 of 21 passes at the combine and never seemed to find any rhythm with his passes. The read on him is that for every good pass he would throw, there would be three or four bad ones that would follow. Lots could change, though, if he has a solid pro day and does great in interviews, where it's certain he will be grilled.
Newton helped lead Auburn to a perfect 14-0 record and the BCS national championship. He rushed for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns while passing for 2,854 yards and 30 scores.
Recently, Mike Mayock of the NFL Network drew a comparison in the Baltimore Sun between Newton and another starter in the NFL.
"I might draw a parallel with Joe Flacco," Mayock said. "A couple of years ago, Joe Flacco came out of a spread offense [at Delaware]. He’s a big guy and I think what people needed him to do was kind of hasten the process. His footwork needed to get quicker. The release needed to get quicker. He’s a long kid. And that’s what I see with Cam Newton. … The kid’s got a ton of talent."
5. Arizona: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
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I did have the Bengals actually taking Gabbert, but then I thought, "Wait, it's the Bengals. They're crazy enough to take a chance on Cam." So I made the switch.
Arizona fans, I think you should exhale. I think this is a solid pick, especially if you get a solid veteran to come in and help mentor Gabbert as he adjusts to the pace and speed of the NFL.
Most agree Gabbert is the No.1 quarterback on the board and the most pro-ready.
This year, he completed 301-of-475 passes for 3,186 yards (63.4 percent), with nine interceptions and 16 touchdowns.
6. Cleveland: WR A.J. Green, Georgia
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Despite being suspended for the first four games for violating NCAA rules, Green finished last year with 57 catches for 848 yards (14.9 average) and nine touchdowns.
New coach Pat Shurmur all but said they would take Green in a recent interview with the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
"Explosive players on offense I think are what you're looking for," Shurmur said. "...As far as picking guys high at certain positions, I don't think that's an issue at receiver. I think if you can find a great player, and he's at the spot where you're willing to pick him, let's do it."
7. San Francisco: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
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While Ryan Mallett had a good showing at the combine, I don't think he's quite the fit for Jim Harbaugh's offense. Picking Peterson could help a 49ers pass defense that allowed 231 yards passing per game in 2010, plus Harbaugh could get a dangerous return man as well.
In 13 games, he had 42 total tackles, four interceptions (for 134 yards), six pass breakups and 10 pass deflections. He also had one quarterback hurry and one blocked kick.
8. Tennessee: QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
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I did see a story how former quarterback Warren Moon is hoping to influence the Titans to go after Cam Newton. That's great, but I have a feeling Newton will be gone by this pick.
Mallett did wonders for his stock at the combine, where many were impressed by his accuracy and the throws he made. Now it will be interesting to see how he does in interviews and when it comes to breaking down film.
This year he completed 266 of 411 passes for 3,869 yards and 32 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions,
Tennessee needs a franchise quarterback, and could, like other teams, address this via free agency.
The Titans need a few more pieces to be a playoff team, so I could easily see them grabbing a veteran in the free-agent market, then allowing Mallett to adjust gradually to the speed of the NFL.
9. Dallas: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
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If he's still here, the Cowboys have to grab Prince. When he ran the 40 at the combine, his first time broke 4.4 seconds. The second time was at 4.42.
The two-year starter, who had a similar workout to Patrick Peterson, is great in coverage and finished the year with 59 total tackles, one tackle for loss, one sack and 13 passes broken up.
Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers, who sat out of the combine due to knee surgery, could fall down here.
That wouldn't be a bad pick, and normally I'd say you don't hesitate with a talented defensive end, but the chance at a shutdown corner?
This is a no-brainer.
10. Washington: DE Cameron Jordan, Cal
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One other draft prediction I saw had the Redskins taking Julio Jones, but I think improving the pass rush is a lot bigger need than wide receiver, which is a need but can be addressed in the second round.
Consider: Albert Haynesworth won't be in the picture, and Washington's biggest pass rushing threat was linebacker Brian Orakpo, who had a team-high 8.5 sacks in 2010. After him, there wasn't a player with more than 2.5 sacks.
This year, Jordan (6'4'', 283 pounds) was fifth on the team with 62 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss (47 yards), 5.5 sacks (32 yards), four pass breakups, and one quarterback hurry.
11. Houston: DE/OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina
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Da'Quan Bowers' knee is going to have his stock plummet. I almost had the Texans picking him, but they can't take that chance. They've got to land someone who has no questions and who can contribute immediately.
Quinn did play with a brain tumor throughout college, but I'm keeping him in the same spot from last time. As I said before, the Texans could use another pass rusher and help in their secondary.
Quinn (6'5", 270) was ruled permanently ineligible this year by the NCAA for violating rules relating to agent benefits received of $5,642. In 2009, Quinn was first in the ACC and 15th in the nation in tackles for loss (19) and second in the league in sacks (11).
12. Minnesota: DE Aldon Smith, Missouri
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Smith would be a great bookend opposite Jared Allen. He ran a low 4.7 at the combine and impressed many with his quickness and explosion. His leg injury also appears to have fully healed, too.
In 10 games last year, Smith (6'5'', 260 lbs) had 48 total tackles (34 solo), 10 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, one interception, two pass breakups and one quarterback hurry.
13. Detroit: OL Nate Solder, Colorado
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Hey, I'm not the only one who's got Solder off the board here.
Solder (6'9", 315 lbs) leaves Boulder after a dominating career.
He played 2,540 out of a possible 2,542 plays in his sophomore through senior years. In that span, there were a total of 1,400 pass plays called, and Solder allowed just five sacks over a three-year span. He also allowed 21 pressures, meaning the other man he blocked influenced a pass play just 26 times in those 1,400 plays.
14. St. Louis: WR Julio Jones, Alabama
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Julio dazzled scouts at the combine when he ran the 40 in 4.4 seconds—with a broken foot.
"Coming into the combine, the consensus was Georgia’s A.J. Green was the No. 1 wide receiver in this draft class," writes Jamison Hensley of The Baltimore Sun. "Now, with the combine complete, Jones might have taken that title while placing his name among the great stories at this scouting event."
Some say Jones' hands and his knack for dropping balls could be costly. That's absurd.
Julio (6'4'', 211 lbs) closed out his college career with 78 catches for 1,133 yards (14.5 average) and seven touchdowns. He had 221 yards against Tennessee and 199 in the Iron Bowl against Auburn.
15. Miami: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
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Ingram (5'10'', 215 lbs) didn't do any serious damage to his stock and many still have him here are 15th. It makes sense, with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both free agents.
The former Heisman Trophy winner led the Crimson Tide this year in carries (158), rushing yards (875) and rushing touchdowns (13).
16. Jacksonville: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
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Before I had Jacksonville taking Cam here, but I'm going to revert back to them taking Kerrigan.
The Jags need to improve their pass rush, so this wouldn't be too far of a reach.
In 12 games last season, Kerrigan (6'3'', 255 lbs) had 70 tackles (50 solo), with 26 tackles for loss (111 yards), 12.5 sacks for 73 yards, one pass breakup and one pass defended.
"I feel like I'm a good pass rusher. I can get after the passer. But I'm also athletic enough to drop into coverage and be able to cover tight ends and wide receivers," Kerrigan said to the Patriots' website, another team that could pursue him. "I've been able to put together some college seasons back-to-back. I think my production overall and I was a captain, I think that will speak volumes for some of the scouts here."
17. New England: DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
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Bowers could prove everyone wrong and have a tremendous pro day when he eventually works out. If that's the case, then he'll be a top 10 pick and all is well.
Right now, however, there are questions about how healthy his knee is.
From The Denver Post: "Bowers' knee surgery is a question mark, with several teams now saying it is more serious than he has said."
Bowers told USA Today his knee is "100 percent."
"It was a small meniscus tear," Bowers said. "It hampered me from my first three weeks of training, which is why I am not doing anything at the combine because I feel that I want the same amount of time that everybody else had to train and fully prepare for the combine. I am going to do all my workouts on pro day."
In 2010, Bowers was second on the team in tackles (63), had a team-high 24 tackles for loss (150 yards), 15.5 sacks and 17 quarterback pressures.
18. San Diego: DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
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You could stick Watt on the line opposite Luis Castillo, and he could probably play outside linebacker in certain schemes too.
Watt (6'6'', 292 lbs) was second on the team with 62 total tackles, plus 21 tackles for loss (91 yards), seven sacks, one interception, eight pass breakups, nine pass deflections and 10 quarterback hurries.
I've seen Watt much earlier than this, as high as eighth. He's one one of the defensive ends that scouts have continued to be enamored with. If he's still on the board, though, the Chargers would be wise to grab him.
19. New York Giants: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
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Castonzo (6'7'', 305 lbs) was a four-year starter and many believe he could play immediately. Questions remain about whether left tackle would be the best fit for him.
20. Tampa Bay: OT Tyron Smith, USC
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For the longest time, most of us have figured Tampa would solidify it's defensive line and improve its pass rush.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik came out recently though and told the Tampa Tribune: tap the brakes there.
The paper reports that the team is hoping to add depth at tight end and offensive tackle, then hopefully pick up a talented wide receiver and potential starter at fullback. Safety will also be a priority. Most of those you can probably get in the second to third rounds, and even later, but if he's still here at this point, I'm guessing the Bucs take Smith.
Smith (6'5'', 291 lbs) played primarily at right offensive tackle and helped the Trojans offense average 31 points and just over 431 total yards per game.
21. Kansas City: WR Titus Young, Boise State
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Go get Dwayne Bowe some help. Titus is the answer here.
Last season, Young had a team-high 71 receptions for 1,215 yards and nine touchdowns.
22. Indianapolis: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
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The 6'7'', 327-pound offensive tackle was a consensus All-American and Outland Trophy winner. Carimi, who started 13 games, was also named Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year.
Carimi, who plays left tackle, certainly isn't short on confidence. When asked about his ability, he pointed out that he went against four potential first-round picks last year, which is true: Adrian Clayborn (Iowa), Cameron Heyward (Ohio State), Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue) and teammate J.J. Watt in practice.
23. Philadelphia: OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
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The Eagles allowed 52 sacks this season, so it's probably wise if they improve that line a little.
Sherrod graded out at 90 percent or higher nine times as a senior, and helped Mississippi State average nearly 215 yards rushing per game, which was 16th nationally and second in the Southeastern Conference. In eight games this year, the Bulldogs rushed for over 200 yards.
Sherrod's pro day workout could have him vaulting up this list, though.
From Russ Lande of The Sporting News: "...There should be no doubt he will be a first-round pick and he might've surpassed Colorado's Nate Solder on teams' rankings of the tackles. Sherrod was worked out by two NFL line coaches, and he showed the good footwork, quickness, balance and agility throughout all the drills.
"For a 6-5, 320-pound man, Sherrod looked light on his feet and showed everyone he will be able to handle speed rushers and protect an NFL quarterback's blind side."
24. New Orleans: DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
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The Saints could add a defensive tackle here at this pick, or go outside linebacker. Either one makes sense.
Liuget finished last season with 63 total tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, three pass breakups, three pass deflections and 10 quarterback hurries.
25. Seattle: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
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I've kept thinking the Seahawks would be the team that would take a chance on Washington's Jake Locker.
He did have a solid performance at the combine, but then something in my mind said, "Hey, they can take a chance on a quarterback in the second round. They definitely need to improve at corner."
Thus Smith.
Smith (6'2'', 203 lbs) allowed just 11 pass completions in man coverage during his final two seasons. Last year he was a first-team Big 12 selection after finishing with 70 total tackles and five passes broken up in 12 games. He finishes his career with 183 tackles.
26. Baltimore: WR Torrey Smith, Maryland
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All signs point to Smith, who had a team-high 67 receptions for 1,055 yards (15.7 avg.) and 12 touchdowns last season.
27. Atlanta: CB Curtis Brown, Texas
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I'd think the Falcons could go wide receiver, or defensive end here, but I think cornerback trumps each of those.
Brown clocked in at just under 4.5 in the 40, and scouts loved his hips and his backpedaling ability at the combine.
Besides playing cornerback, Brown (6'0'', 184) has been a special teams player for the Longhorns, and finishes with 35 career special teams tackles. In 12 games last season, he had 26 total tackles, one tackle for loss, one interception (74 yards), six passes broken up and seven passes defended.
28. New England: DE/DT Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple
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Wilkerson could switch to tackle in a 4-3 scheme, or play end in a 3-4.
In 12 games last season, he had 70 total tackles, 13 tackles for loss (80 yards), 9.5 sacks, three pass breakups, three pass deflections and two quarterback hurries.
"I have no preference," for tackle or end, Wilkerson told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "Wherever the coach wants me, I'm going to be there."
29. Chicago: OG/C Mike Pouncey, Florida
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Any chance you can get to improve protection for Jay Cutler is a good thing.
Pouncey's a natural guard, but can also switch to center and displays great strength and athleticism.
30. New York Jets: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
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If they decide not to bring back Shaun Ellis, I could see this happening.
In 13 games last year, Clayborn (6'4'', 285 lbs) had 52 tackles (19 solo), seven tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
Clayborn's extremely athletic and aggressive and finds ways to be disruptive even if he's blocked at first on certain plays. One downside with him sometimes are the angles he takes on plays, and he has been criticized for how he's matched up against talented tackles.
31. Pittsburgh: DT Phil Taylor, Baylor
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You've got Casey Hampton locked in at nose tackle for a few more years and Chris Hoke is a free agent, so there's really no one to groom to take Hampton's spot at the moment.
Why not grab Taylor, then shift him over?
Taylor (6'4'', 340) has quietly worked his way into first-round consideration. He played in 13 games last year, registering 62 tackles (35 solo), seven tackles for loss, two sacks, two pass breakups, two pass deflections and three quarterback hurries.
32. Green Bay: DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
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If you've got Cullen Jenkins headed out the door, why not go grab someone to fill that spot, or provide depth?
In 12 games last year, Heyward had 42 total tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss (31 yards), 2.5 sacks (18 yards) and one interception for 80 yards.
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