NFL Draft 2011: 20 Bold Predictions You Won't See Anywhere Else
Right now, it's hard for any NFL fan to think about anything but the possibility that there won't be a 2011 season.
But if there's one saving grace for the sport's diehard fans, it's that the NFL draft will take place. No matter what.
And that means, at least for the time being, we have something to look forward to, something to hope for, something to surprise us.
The 2011 NFL draft may be mocked thousands and thousands of times on the Internet, but they're often so far off that we sit there shocked when the draft doesn't go according to "plan."
Well, that'll be true once again this year, as the draft promises to leave many of us thinking, "Man, I didn't see that one coming."
Here are 20 bold predictions about the 2011 NFL draft.
20. Ryan Mallett Will Be Chosen in the First Round
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Ryan Mallett has ridden the draft-stock carousel since declaring for the NFL draft, as his stock has gone up and down, up and down, then back up again.
Well, now comes word from the National Football Post's Wes Bunting, who says that Mallett has made his way back into the first round.
Given that most teams in the latter part of the first round are set at quarterback, I'd expect some team to trade up into that pick 26-32 range to grab the former Arkansas star.
19. No Safety Will Be Chosen in Round 1
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According to ESPN's Scouts, Inc., the highest-rated safety on the board is UCLA's Rahim Moore, who is ranked as the No. 29 overall prospect.
The thing is, this year's safety class is considered to be pretty weak, and though Moore is the best of the bunch, no one is really expecting him to develop into a perennial Pro Bowler.
And the drop-off after him is huge, so unless a surprise team in the latter part of the first round—the New York Jets maybe?—drafts Moore, it could be 40 picks into the draft before we see a safety chosen.
18. Adrian Clayborn and Cameron Heyward Will Fall Out of Round 1
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Despite being two guys who've got a ton of publicity in the past, the table is set for both Adrian Clayborn and Cameron Heyward to fall out of Round 1 and into Round 2.
There have been lingering questions about Clayborn's motor and his desire to play the game, while Heyward is still recovering from recent elbow surgery.
And if there are two things teams shy away from, they're players with questionable character or injury concerns.
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17. Jake Locker Will Be This Year's Jimmy Clausen
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Remember the 2010 NFL draft, when Jimmy Clausen was in discussion to be the No. 1 overall pick but fell all the way to No. 48?
Well, Jake Locker might want to give Clausen a call and see how that feels, because Locker has all the makings of being in Clausen's shoes this year.
Locker hasn't really wowed anyone with his performance in college or in post-college workouts, and teams will ignore his potential in favor of the numbers and game tape that are already there.
16. No Kickers Will Be Chosen...at All
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Alex Henery, Kai Forbath and Alex Weber are probably the three kickers with the best chances of getting drafted in 2011.
But drafting a kicker? Really?
That's what free agency is for. Save your draft picks for something else.
15. Andy Dalton Will Be Chosen with the No. 45 Overall Pick by San Francisco
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At TCU's pro day, quarterback Andy Dalton had a number of offensive coordinators watching him closely.
But only one head coach was there: San Francisco's Jim Harbaugh.
And Harbaugh is apparently high up on Dalton, who he feels would be a good fit in the West Coast offense.
Though Dalton is listed as a third- or fourth-round pick by some scouts and analysts, I think we'll see him go to the 49ers in Round 2.
14. Five Cornerbacks Will Be Chosen in the First Round
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Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara are far and away the best cornerbacks in this year's draft class.
But after those two, the next three corners are Jimmy Smith, Brandon Harris and Aaron Williams, all three of who have received a grade of 86 or higher by Scouts, Inc.
And you know what? Those three will join Peterson and Amuakamara in the first round.
After all, no one really expected Patrick Robinson to go in Round 1 last year. But he did.
That—and by that, I mean players being unexpectedly drafted—seems to happen in the latter part of the first round more often than not.
13. Da'Quan Bowers Will Drop to Pick No. 8
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In his latest mock draft, ESPN's Mel Kiper has Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers dropping to the No. 8 overall pick (Tennessee Titans) "because of needs elsewhere before this pick and because of some very small but lingering questions about his knee."
I agree.
If Bowers isn't chosen by Cincinnati at No. 4 overall, he really doesn't fill a need for any team between picks No. 5 and No. 7.
That means the Titans will jump all over him with the eighth pick in the first round.
12. At Least Five Wide Receivers Will Be Taken in Round 1
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When you hear the chatter about this year's wide receiver class, it's A.J. Green, Julio Jones and then everybody else.
But there are a number of second-tier wideouts who could be taken in the latter portion of the first round, because of the plethora of receiver-needy teams there, like Baltimore and Atlanta.
My three choices to join Green and Jones in Round 1? Randall Cobb, Torrey Smith and Jonathan Baldwin.
11. The Second Round: The Round of the Quarterback...
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With Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett and Blaine Gabbert being taken in Round 1, I see even more quarterbacks being selected in Round 2.
In fact, four gunslingers will hear their name called in the second round: TCU's Andy Dalton, Washington's Jake Locker, Florida State's Christian Ponder and Nevada's Colin Kaepernick.
10. ...And the Running Back
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With a lack of elite running back prospects—like Adrian Peterson—in the 2011 draft class, I'd expect the second round to be the round of the running back as well.
Around five or six backs could go in Round 2, from Ryan Williams to Mikel Leshoure to Jordan Todman to DeMarco Murray.
Especially with the trend toward two-back systems, there will be no shortage of teams who are looking to address the RB position reasonably early.
9. Nick Fairley Will Not Be the First D-Lineman Selected
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ESPN's Scouts, Inc. currently has three defensive linemen—Marcell Dareus, Da'Quan Bowers and Robert Quinn—ranked ahead of Nick Fairley on its 2011 NFL Draft Big Board.
And though Fairley has more hype than those three guys and is a nice fit with the Denver Broncos at No. 2 overall, Dareus is emerging as the draft's top D-line prospect, while Fairley is sliding a bit.
Don't be surprised to see the former Auburn DT get drafted later than expected.
8. Only Two Linebackers Will Be Chosen in Round 1
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When looking at the top draft prospects in this year's class, you'll notice one surprise: the lack of first-round linebackers.
Now that Justin Houston is expected to play defensive end in a 4-3 scheme, that leaves Von Miller and Akeem Ayers as the only two first-round locks from the LB position.
7. No Offensive Tackle Will Be Selected in the Top 15 Picks
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Though offensive tackles usually fly off the board, there isn't really a pressing need at the position in this year's draft.
In fact, the first time I expect any team to seriously consider drafting an OT is Detroit at pick No. 13 (with USC's Tyron Smith as the likeliest pick), but the Lions could also go with someone like Prince Amukamara (if he surprisingly slips) or Akeem Ayers here.
That means the first offensive tackle will probably go in that No. 17-19 range, with New England, San Diego and New York (Giants) all needing to upgrade their offensive lines.
6. No Running Back Will Be Taken in the First Round
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Mark Ingram is listed as the No. 17 overall prospect according to ESPN's Scouts, Inc., but he's the only running back to be found anywhere near the top 32.
He has a grade of 93 overall, while the second RB, Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams, is listed as a second-round prospect on most mock drafts.
Ingram, on the other hand, is predicted to go as high as No. 15 to Miami, to New England at No. 28 or early in the second round.
Given that he hasn't blown anyone away since his tenure at Alabama ended, I'll go with the latter.
5. No QB Will Be Taken in the Top 5
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Realistically speaking, there are four teams in the top five overall picks who could select a quarterback: Carolina, Buffalo, Cincinnati and Arizona.
But, according to Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, the Panthers aren't sold on Blaine Gabbert, while there's been no real indication the pick would be Cam Newton here, either.
As for the Bills, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a decent starter and the team has more pressing needs on defense.
The Bengals still have their hands tied by Carson Palmer, and the Cardinals are expected to pursue a veteran quarterback rather than draft one with their first-round selection.
4. Julio Jones Will Be Drafted Before A.J. Green
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In terms of pure wide receiver skills, A.J. Green is a better pro prospect than Julio Jones.
But when looking at the measurables and physical attributes of the 2011 NFL draft's top two wideouts, Jones stands tall.
He's bigger, faster and stronger than Green, and has the potential to be a huge game-breaker in the NFL.
That's not to say that Green doesn't—he does—but a little more hype for Jones could push him to the No. 1 WR spot in this year's draft.
3. Patrick Peterson Will Be the No. 1 Pick
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The buzz on Patrick Peterson being chosen by Carolina with the first overall pick is certainly there.
Then, Mike Triplett of the Times-Picayune, the New Orleans Saints beat writer, recently tweeted this little gem:
"LSU CB Patrick Peterson had dinner w/Carolina Panthers coach Ron Rivera in Baton Rouge on Sun. night."
A sign of things to come, perhaps?
2. Von Miller Will Be the Draft's Biggest Bust
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Von Miller has skyrocketed up draft boards since the 2010 CFB season ended, as scouts love his size, agility, athleticism and ability to get after the quarterback.
But Miller isn't exactly living the high life—he recently got the "Oh god, no!" comparison to the New York Jets' ultimate bust, Vernon Gholston.
That's enough to convince me that Miller may be a physical freak, but nothing more.
1. The Dallas Cowboys Will Draft Cam Newton
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Though this could be nothing more than smoke and mirrors, the Dallas Cowboys have apparently entered the Cam Newton sweepstakes.
And while it's no secret that Dallas doesn't need a quarterback—they could use some help in the secondary or along the defensive line—it's also no secret that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones would love to make a huge splash in the draft.
If that's indeed the case, then there's no bigger splash than drafting the controversial Heisman winner.
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