NFL Mock Draft 2011: Detroit Lions 7 Round Predictions

Mock drafting for the Detroit Lions in 2011 is a veritable nightmare.

There is the coach, Jim Schwartz, a Bill Belichick disciple who believes in systematically starving the public of any information regarding any aspect of team operations.

But tack onto that the particular volatility of this year's draft prospects, the unique problem of no free agency to fill obvious team needs, combined with a "best player available" drafting style and an uncharacteristically low drafting position (13th), and it's easily the most unpredictable draft in the post-Millen era.

But that's okay. In fact, it's more than okay; it's a good thing. This draft will tell Lions fans whether or not this front office can turn marginal success into consistent success and keep it there.

Any mildly competent GM can hit with the second overall pick every year. But if the team is drafting second every year, they're doing something wrong. This is the opportunity for GM Martin Mayhew and Schwartz to show that they can still succeed in building a team without annual top 10 picks.

And they can start with...

Round 1, Selection 13: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

PASADENA, CA - JANUARY 01: Defensive lineman J.J. Watt #99 of the Wisconsin Badgers defends a pass by quarterback Andy Dalton #14 of the TCU Horned Frogs during the 97th Rose Bowl game on January 1, 2011 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansez

J.J. Watt figures to be the next Kyle Vanden Bosch, which makes him a perfect choice to eventually replace Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Watt isn't the biggest, strongest or fastest guy. Though he's one of the strongest edge players in this year's class, his physical abilities overall are above average, but not elite.

However, he looks a whole lot like an elite prospect because of his non-stop motor and outstanding football IQ. He plays hard every down, never gives up on a play, performs equally well against the run or the pass and always gets his hands up to knock down passes (he also blocked three kicks in 2010).

Watt is a proven hard worker, both on and off the field. He was an Academic All-American in 2009 and 2010 (the only two years he spent in the Big Ten), won the Ronnie Lott IMPACT (integrity, maturity, performance, academics, community and tenacity) award in 2010 and started a self-named foundation to help schools fund athletic programs.

But he's not all character. In 2010, he led Wisconsin in TFLs, sacks, quarterback hurries, forced fumbles and blocked kicks. He was second in tackles, pass breakups and passes defended, which is impressive for a guy lugging around a 6'6", 290-pound frame.

In a single game, he posted three TFLs, a sack, a blocked extra point, two forced fumbles—both recovered by Wisconsin—and three quarterback hurries that all resulted in interceptions. That's five turnovers in a single game attributed in part to one player.

Watt's stock is rising fast and while the Lions don't exactly need a defensive line upgrade above all else, they habitually take the best player that makes sense. Watt could be that guy at 13 and he could make a very good defensive line into a phenomenal one.

This spot could also be reserved for Ryan Kerrigan of Purdue (especially as Watt continues to creep toward the Top 10) and much of what I've said here would remain true.

Round 2, Selection 44: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami

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FORT LAUDERDALE, FL - SEPTEMBER 17: Defensive back Brandon Harris #1 of the Miami Hurricanes breaks up a pass intended for wide receiver Kevin Cone #82 of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Land Shark Stadium on September 17, 2009 in Fort Lauderdale, Flo

Look around the internet and you'll be hard-pressed to find Brandon Harris fall this far down a draft board.

But Jimmy Smith is starting to look like the kind of player whose talent might trump his character concerns, so there's a growing consensus that he will be the third cornerback off the board—and that's unlikely to be until the bottom half of the first round.

That leaves the 5'9" Harris battling it out with Texas product Aaron Williams. Now, Williams could be another good corner prospect, but there is increasing chatter about Harris being converted to safety at the next level.

Some team that needs both a corner and safety is likely to take a flier on Williams fairly early, but it's unlikely that the Lions will draft this year's version of Amari Spievey, so Williams is probably not the guy for them.

Drafting Harris is a dream scenario, as it fills a huge need with one of the best players on the board (which Harris would undoubtedly be at 44).

Harris is at his best in man coverage and the Lions would delight in putting him in their blitz packages. His speed and quickness would allow him to jump on short routes, taking away one of the quarterback's release valves.

Round 3, Selection 75: Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina

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CHAPEL HILL, NC - OCTOBER 04: Punter Desi Cullen #13 of the Connecticut Huskies has his punt blocked for a touchdown by Bruce Carter #54 of the North Carolina Tar Heels during the game at Kenan Stadium on October 4, 2008 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina.

Bruce Carter is an unknown quantity at this point.

If he (and his team) remained healthy for his entire college career, there is little doubt that he would have been one of the top two or three linebackers in this draft. He might even have pushed Von Miller for the top spot.

But then came a nightmarish senior season, in which he spent a good portion of the year having to make up for the suspensions of several of his talented defensive teammates. Teams were able to game-plan around Carter, so his stats dropped off sharply.

To make matters worse, Carter went on to tear his ACL in December, which has made it impossible for him to work out for scouts in the draft process. There's no guarantee he'll even be 100 percent by the start of the NFL season.

Now, Carter relies on his freakish athleticism to compensate for average football IQ and instincts, and that's why it's anyone's guess where he gets drafted. His recovery from ACL surgery is going to be the biggest factor regarding his NFL future.

The third round might be a little too soon to be taking chances on potentially damaged goods, but the potential reward is worth it. Carter is widely thought of as a second-round pick even with his injury.

But the lockout has eliminated free agency (for now), so more teams than usual are going to be looking for players who can step in immediately and fill a need.

Carter's injury takes him out of that category, which should slide him a little further down draft boards. If the Lions take him with the 75th overall pick, they're potentially getting a first-round talent and future star off the discount rack.

Round 4, Selection 106: Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State

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LAWRENCE, KS - OCTOBER 14: Daniel Thomas #8 of the Kansas State Wildcats carries the ball as Olaitan Oguntodu #44 of the Kansas Jayhawks defends during the game on October 14, 2010 at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Im

Originally, this spot was reserved for a strong interior lineman. But drafting Daniel Thomas here just makes entirely too much sense.

Consider first that the Lions declined to tender Kevin Smith as a restricted free agent, which grants him unrestricted free-agent status. In other words, it's not a make-or-break year for Smith. He's already bypassed "break."

Now, consider the type of running back Thomas is. His 6'0", 230-pound frame excels at pounding the rock in-between the tackles and wearing out the defense. He lacks the top-end speed to break long plays on the outside and he's a below-average route runner, but he can carry the ball as much as you want him to and the defense is almost guaranteed to get tired before he does.

He would be most effective in a dual-back system where he has a speedy home-run threat alongside him who excels at running in space and catching passes out of the backfield.

Anyone happen to know a team that recently drafted a player like that?

Round 5, Selection 151: DeMarcus Love, OG, Arkansas

There are a lot of reasons to like DeMarcus Love with this pick (take note of how I sidestepped that easy pun. You're welcome).

First of all, he's an offensive lineman. He may not be as high as you were hoping, or at the position you were hoping. But here's the rationale:

Jeff Backus is entering a contract year. He is also coming off arguably the two best years of his career. I seriously can't understand why everyone is calling for his replacement now, of all times.

He needs to be replaced next year (when he's a free agent), especially if the Lions are looking to burn a first-round pick on said replacement. First-round linemen are guys who can plug in and play immediately.

Of course, that's assuming Jason Fox—who very quietly made a lot of progress last year—hasn't grown into the role by then.

Love has the opportunity to be very much like Fox. Fox was taken in the fourth round last year as a project and he spent most of the season deactivated. However, he saw tremendous growth on the practice field, both in his skills and in his muscle. He will be looking at an expanded role in 2011, despite the fact that both starting tackle positions are locked down.

Like Fox, Love probably won't factor very heavily in his first season, but Love has two things the Lions covet on the offensive line: size and versatility. He has experience playing effectively at every line position except center, which will be nice considering how much time Lions linemen spend on the injured list.

But more importantly, the Lions were among the best in the league in pass protection and among the worst in the league in running between the tackles. That equates to needing a big upgrade in the interior of the line, not the edge.

Stephen Peterman is coming off a mostly abysmal season and is an annual injury risk. He is the weak link on the offensive line, especially since he doesn't have the tenure or vocal leadership of Dominic Raiola.

With a little hard work, Love could gun for Peterman's starting job by the end of the season and certainly by training camp 2012.

The Lions are building the offensive line, but they're not spending big on it; they're slow-building and getting the last little bit of mileage out of the veterans while they wait for the big contracts to clear up.

Love fits that strategy perfectly, as he should be ready to step up as soon as the Lions have squeezed the last bit of productivity out of Peterman.