A Different View on the NL Cy Young Race

Brandon Webb. No doubt about it.

Since 1998, the teams of the 20 Cy Young winners in both leagues had an average of 93 wins, with all but one reaching the threshold of 85 wins (Brandon Webb, 2007, when Arizona finished with 76 wins).

As the D-Backs are currently 10 games ahead of the Giants—Tim Lincecum is the only other reasonable choice for the NL Cy Young, as I'm not including CC Sabathia, who started more games in the AL than in the NL—with 82 wins, look for the voters to choose Brandon Webb.

So here's the question: Is Webb the right choice?

To test this, I developed a new stat called Wins Saved. First, I determined the amount of runs each team in the MLB would have had to not given up by using the Pythagorean Formula, which I'll call RPLL, or runs per less loss.

(Here's an example: Tampa Bay scored 774 runs and gave up 671; according to the Pythagorean Formula, using a 1.83 exponent, the Rays should have won 91.5 games and lost 69.5. I found out the amount of runs less the Rays should have given up if they were expected to win 91.5 games and lose 68.5.

For the Rays, it was approximately five runs—if they had given up 665 runs instead of 671, they would have lost only 68.5 games. Get it? Good.)

(Follow-up note: Most teams had a RPLL of around five or six, with the high of seven and a low of four.)

Then I figured out the amount of runs every pitcher saved above average. That was calculated from the ERA by subtracting the player's ERA by the league ERA, dividing by nine, and multiplying by innings pitched. After that was complete, divide that number by the RPLL of that player's current team. That number is the wins saved.

I calculated the wins saved using ERA, Fielding-independent Pitching, and Runs Created Allowed per nine innings, which was is calculated by finding the runs created by opposing hitters of that pitcher (using the 2002 version, found here), and then dividing by IP and multiplying by nine.

Here are the results, for the 87 pitchers with at least 162 innings pitched, sorted by FIP Wins Saved.

Wins Saved of Pitchers with 162+ IP

Name	Team	WS-FIP	WS-ERA	WS-RCA
Tim Lincecum	SF	10.6	10.9	10.5
CC Sabathia	MIL	7.8	9.3	8.1
Roy Halladay	TOR	7.3	8.6	7.9
Cliff Lee	CLE	6.5	8.1	6.4
Brandon Webb	ARI	5.5	5.2	6.3
Derek Lowe	LAD	4.6	5.2	6.2
Jake Peavy	SD	3.4	7.2	5.6
Johan Santana	NYM	3.9	9.4	5.2
Ryan Dempster	CHC	3.5	5.3	4.4
Cole Hamels	PHI	2.1	5.3	4.3
Ervin Santana	LAA	5.0	4.2	4.0
Joe Saunders	LAA	-0.3	4.1	3.9
Dan Haren	ARI	6.2	4.9	3.8
Ben Sheets	MIL	3.7	5.5	3.3
Jon Lester	BOS	2.8	4.4	3.2
Ricky Nolasco	FLA	2.5	3.9	3.1
Daisuke Matsuzaka	BOS	0.9	4.5	2.9
Edinson Vólquez	CIN	3.6	4.9	2.9
James Shields	TB	2.7	3.8	2.8
Matt Garza	TB	0.7	2.6	2.7
Paul Maholm	PIT	0.9	2.9	2.6
Roy Oswalt	HOU	2.5	3.7	2.6
Hiroki Kuroda	LAD	3.0	2.5	2.5
Scott Baker	MIN	1.5	2.9	2.4
John Danks	CWS	3.4	3.7	2.2
Chad Billingsley	LAD	4.4	5.3	2.1
Carlos Zambrano	CHC	0.2	1.5	2.0
Mike Mussina	NYY	1.9	3.6	1.7
Dave Bush	MIL	-2.3	0.7	1.4
Mike Pelfrey	NYM	2.0	2.7	1.3
Tim Wakefield	BOS	-1.4	0.7	1.3
Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	-0.8	2.5	1.3
Gil Meche	KC	2.8	1.7	1.3
Greg Smith	OAK	-2.4	0.8	1.2
Armando Galarraga	DET	-1.8	2.2	1.1
Josh Beckett	BOS	3.6	1.0	1.1
Ubaldo Jiménez	COL	2.4	1.5	0.9
Félix Hernández	SEA	4.5	3.9	0.9
Aaron Cook	COL	2.4	1.8	0.9
John Lannan	WAS	-1.9	1.8	0.5
Greg Maddux	LAD	0.9	0.6	0.5
Zack Greinke	KC	3.2	3.9	0.5
A.J. Burnett	TOR	4.3	1.4	0.4
Todd Wellemeyer	STL	-0.8	2.7	0.3
Jesse Litsch	TOR	0.2	3.0	0.3
Mark Buehrle	CWS	1.6	2.7	0.3
John Lackey	LAA	-0.5	2.2	0.2
Justin Verlander	DET	0.9	-1.8	0.1
Jair Jurrjens	ATL	2.8	2.8	-0.1
Kyle Lohse	STL	1.6	2.5	-0.1
Matt Cain	SF	2.4	3.5	-0.2
Oliver Pérez	NYM	-1.3	0.6	-0.3
Jamie Moyer	PHI	0.2	2.3	-0.4
Ted Lilly	CHC	-0.4	0.9	-0.4
Dana Eveland	OAK	1.3	0.0	-0.5
Randy Johnson	ARI	2.2	1.8	-0.5
Randy Wolf	HOU	1.0	0.2	-0.7
Scott Olsen	FLA	-3.4	0.6	-0.9
Jered Weaver	LAA	1.6	0.0	-1.1
Jason Marquis	CHC	-0.8	-0.5	-1.1
Gavin Floyd	CWS	-2.3	1.9	-1.1
Braden Looper	STL	-0.6	0.8	-1.5
Nick Blackburn	MIN	-0.1	0.7	-1.5
Andy Sonnanstine	TB	1.6	-0.1	-1.6
Javier Vázquez	CWS	2.6	-1.5	-2.0
Joe Blanton	PHI	-0.9	-1.3	-2.1
Andy Pettitte	NYY	2.3	-0.7	-2.3
Manny Parra	MIL	0.3	-0.2	-2.4
Vicente Padilla	TEX	-1.5	-1.1	-2.9
Brett Myers	PHI	-0.8	-0.7	-2.9
Edwin Jackson	TB	-2.6	-0.3	-3.0
Paul Byrd	BOS	-2.7	-0.8	-3.1
Tim Redding	WAS	-2.4	-2.4	-3.4
Johnny Cueto	CIN	-1.7	-1.8	-4.0
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	-0.9	-1.9	-4.4
Barry Zito	SF	-5.5	-4.0	-4.5
Jeff Suppan	MIL	-4.9	-2.5	-5.2
Jon Garland	LAA	-1.9	-2.5	-5.4
Daniel Cabrera	BAL	-1.5	-3.0	-5.4
Aaron Harang	CIN	-2.2	-1.8	-5.7
Kenny Rogers	DET	-2.7	-4.4	-5.8
Kevin Millwood	TEX	0.8	-2.0	-5.9
Zach Duke	PIT	-0.3	-1.9	-6.1
Brian Bannister	KC	-2.9	-5.8	-6.6
Nate Robertson	DET	-2.3	-6.3	-7.2
Liván Hernández	COL	-2.8	-6.8	-9.6
Brandon Backe	HOU	-5.9	-6.4	-9.8

Lincecum is tops in every category, and by quite a bit to boot. But because he's pitching on a 72-win team, chances are the voters won't choose him as the NL Cy Young winner.

Lincecum leads Webb in almost every major category—ERA by six-tenths of a point, strikeouts by 60, and WHIP—while only behind in wins, by four. It seems as if the only thing that matters in the voting is wins, both player and team totals.

Which isn't right. Lincecum should be the NL Cy Young winner, and deservedly so.