2011 NFL Mock Draft: Analyzing Mel Kiper Jr's New England Patriots Picks

Every year, Mel Kiper Jr. and other NFL mock draft analysts get their mock on and pretend they know better what's best for each team than NFL GMs and head coaches do.

Every year, most of them are wrong when it comes to picking who the New England Patriots will select.

In fact, around this time last year, Kiper was predicting the Patriots would take Clemson DE Ricky Sapp with the 22nd pick in the draft.

The call was questionable, as many wondered whether Sapp translated into a 3-4 defense as an outside linebacker, or whether he'd be best left as a 4-3 defensive end as he had been in college.

In the end, Sapp didn't come off the board until the fifth round and went to the Philadelphia Eagles' 4-3 defense.

As we can see, there's reason to scrutinize Kiper's picks, especially when it comes to the Patriots. Let's take a look at who he has going to New England in the first round this year. 

17. New England Patriots: Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue

The very reason he gives for drafting Kerrigan goes against everything the Patriots believe when it comes to the draft.

"Kerrigan answered a lot of questions about his athleticism in Indy and has shown that he might not be the tweener many believe he is, a player seemingly stuck between a 3-4 OLB and a 4-3 DE."

The Patriots know like anyone else that you don't answer any questions at the combine, you simply work out at the combine. They have 12 chances to answer those questions on tape and they'll get a chance to answer more questions in the interview.

That's where the next part of Kiper's description comes in.

"While I don't see him as a guy who'll be dropping back and covering very well early on, Kerrigan is smart and simply has a gift for getting to the quarterback. New England needs a guy like him for all the passes they'll continue to face when up in games." 

This may be true, more because the pass defense was exposed last year than because of any predictions for the halftime scores of next season's games.

Still, the Patriots lack a veteran presence at outside linebacker that can really bring Kerrigan along as a 3-4 outside linebacker. No matter how badly the Patriots need a pass rusher, they shouldn't draft one if they don't think he can learn the system.

28. New England Patriots: Leonard Hankerson, WR Miami

Huh? I'm not buying it.

This is coming from the same guy who last year said Ricky Sapp was on their radar at No. 22? Give me a break.

Of course, why would Kiper backtrack now? He's been saying the Patriots are in the market for drafting a wide receiver ever since—literally—the day after they traded Randy Moss.

The Patriots offense could benefit from another big, physical wide receiver—what offense wouldn't?—but the point is that three of the four players that Kiper has slated to go after the Patriots pick Hankerson are not only better players, but also fill bigger needs.

In the end, it appears he almost gets it when he says, "The Patriots are a difficult team to project in this draft, because they have so much flexibility with all the picks—they could target the best player on their board at a number of positions and still address needs all over."

Except if he really got it, he would have said, "The Patriots are a difficult team to project in every draft, because they will always target the best player on their board."

Unless Kiper magically found a big board of Belichick's prospects, I'd take everything he says as simply a harebrained theory.