Big 12 Basketball Tournament 2011 Predictions: Kansas on Its Way to a Title
The Big 12 is one of the best conferences in college basketball this year, highlighted by the top two teams having amazing years.
Kansas and Texas are the class of the conference and, pending a disastrous performance by either team, should meet in the final. They are both stout inside and complement their superior inside games with several three-point snipers.
Both get after it defensively and have a creator in the backcourt that can get you points in the clutch. Jordan Hamilton and Tyrel Reed are great players on the perimeter.
The middle-tier teams are nothing to scoff at either. Third-place Texas A&M had one of the toughest schedules in the country and still managed to collect 23 wins. It is one of the better defensive teams in the country but was exposed by Texas and Kansas' frontcourt dominance.
A&M struggles to score unless Khris Middleton is going. If he has a good game, the Aggies could beat anyone in the country. Unfortunately, teams know that.
Kansas State rebounded from a 2-5 conference start to finish in fourth place by winning eight of its final nine games, including a win over then-No. 1 Kansas.
Missouri is another team that could make a run at the title despite finishing fifth in the conference. Its full-court press and up-tempo pace could cause problems for teams playing games in back-to-back nights. The Tigers are in great shape and could run teams out of the building
What could turn out to hurt them is they tied with Colorado in the standings but are actually the sixth seed, despite splitting the two meetings and finishing with a better overall record.
By all accounts, the top five teams are already goin' dancing, and the following three teams have some work to do.
Colorado, Nebraska and Baylor each have signature wins, but they coupled them with poor losses.
Colorado has wins over Missouri and Texas and swept Kansas State, but it also has bad losses to Harvard, Iowa State, San Francisco and Oklahoma. If the Buffaloes want to go dancing, they need to win their matchup with Iowa State today to keep people from putting them on the first four out.
The same goes for Baylor, who swept Texas A&M, which seem to be their only signature wins. They have to make some noise in the Big 12 tournament to get people putting them back in the NCAA tournament. Right now most people have them as one of the first four out.
I was busy this morning, so I was unable to write this until now. Nebraska just lost to Oklahoma State, which should prevent it from making the tourney.
At most the Big 12 should get six teams in the tournament, but if Colorado and Baylor find their way into the semis or the finals, they could get as many as seven.
With that, here are my predictions for the Big 12 tournament.
First-Round Games: Can Any of the Lower Teams Play Spoiler?
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No. 5 Colorado Buffaloes over No. 12 Iowa State
The Buffaloes' tandem of guards will be too much for Fred Hoiberg's crew. Iowa State has the 241st-ranked defense and the Buffs have the 13th-ranked offense. This should be a blowout despite the two splitting their conference meetings.
No. 6 Missouri over No. 11 Texas Tech
In the midst of your coach getting fired, the resulting game could go either way. You could want to get his back and have the game of your life, or you could just let it get in your head and have a poor performance.
It's unclear which performance the Red Raiders will have, but they have been awful this season, and nothing suggests they will compete in this one. Texas Tech has the 312th-ranked defense in points per game, which falls right into Missouri's hands.
However, Missouri has been awful on the road, so a neutral site could be just what Pat Knight needs to pull off the upset in his final game.
No. 10 Oklahoma over No. 7 Baylor
The Bears are 1-5 in their last five conference games and won only one road game this season, against Texas A&M. They won't be good away from their home floor and will get trapped looking ahead to a potential meeting with Texas. Cade Davis will go off and lead the Sooners to a great upset.
No. 9 Oklahoma State over No. 8 Nebraska
This was easy since it already happened.
Second-Round Games: Who Will Make the Semifinals?
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No. 1 Kansas over No. 9 Oklahoma State
Kansas won't be stopped by anyone until the final. It is the best team in the conference right now and is aiming for a No. 1 seed by winning it all. 'Nuff said.
No. 4 Kansas State over No. 5 Colorado
Kansas State is one of the hottest teams in the conference and has a lot of confidence coming into the tournament. The Wildcats were in the Top 10 in the preseason rankings until a poor start dropped them out of the rankings completely. They have fought back and climbed back into the Top 25 now and are looking to surprise a lot of people behind their talented backcourt, led by Jacob Pullen.
No. 3 Texas A&M over No. 6 Missouri
This is the hardest game to pick. I like Missouri because it nearly beat Texas A&M at Reid Arena earlier this season, but Texas A&M has a style that contrasts what Missouri wants to do well.
The Aggies like a slower-paced game and are good at forcing teams to play their style. They didn't do it in the first game because they were shooting the ball so well that they just let their offense flow. If they shoot the ball poorly from the outside early in the game, I expect them to slow the game down and limit Missouri's possessions, taking the Tigers away from their comfort zone.
No. 2 Texas over No. 10 Oklahoma
Oklahoma gets a nice win over Baylor but just doesn't have what it takes to upset Texas. The Longhorns have too much size in the frontcourt for Oklahoma to handle.
Two upsets in the first round, but the top four teams will show their separation in the second round.
Semifinals: Will Anyone Take Down Texas or Kansas?
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How perfect would this be to have two games with hated rivals facing each other?
No. 1 Kansas over No. 4 Kansas State
Despite Kansas State pulling off the upset in their last meeting, this game is on a neutral floor, and it won't have the rowdy fans from Manhattan on its side pushing it to victory. The Morris twins are too much for the Wildcats inside.
No. 3 Texas A&M over No. 2 Texas
Yeah, I know I said in the first slide that Texas and Kansas would meet in the final, but the Aggies have gotten much more mature in the frontcourt and are playing better down the stretch. The Longhorns absolutely dominated the two meetings this year, but the Aggies were constantly in foul trouble and forced to play young, inexperienced guys against Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson.
Ray Turner and Kourtney Roberson have gotten much better as the season has progressed, and David Loubeau is playing better as well. The Aggies underestimated Jordan Hamilton in the first two meetings—that won't happen a third time.
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Kansas Jayhawks: 2010-2011 Big 12 Champions
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The Jayhawks are too much for the rest of the Big 12. They have been the most consistent team by far the entire season, and the Morris twins will be too much for the Aggies.
Josh Selby and Tyrel Reed keep teams honest with their three-point shooting; Kansas has the most efficient offense in the country, ranking fifth in points per game and first in field goal percentage. They will break down the Aggie defense with ease and cakewalk to their fifth championship in the past six seasons.
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