Win Your 2011 NCAA Tournament Pool: Fill out Your Bracket by the Numbers

Filling out my bracket...That's my Number One priority following the "NCAA Basketball Championship Selection Show" where Greg Gumbel tells us who's in, who plays who, and where everyone is going to be playing in the 2011 NCAA Tournament.

Some of my early questions are:

Will Duke repeat?

Can BYU make a legitimate run?

Who will be this year's George Mason?

Will anyone from the Big East survive long enough to get to the Final Four

There is a ton of advice and suggestions of how you should and shouldn't go about deciding which teams will be playing for it all in Houston the first weekend in April. 

Some people put in a lot of time and effort, doing a massive amount of research and study.

Others decide ahead of time that they are going to pick a certain number of upsets.

Still others pick their Final Four first and then work backwards.

Since the launch of the 64-team tournament in 1985, each seed-pairing has played a total of 104 first-round games.

The following gives you some usable stats relating to how often one seed has beaten another seed in the first round. Even before we know any of the match-ups, we can start to see some of the trends over a long-period of time.

While this won't get you all the way through filling out your bracket, it could help you make some informed decisions to get you going in the right direction.

If you are going to win the pool (or pools) that you are in for the 2011 NCAA Tournament, it all begins with a hot start!!!

I have tried all kinds of methods in filling out my brackets. I'm going to at least be slightly geeky and look at these numbers this year.

Have fun!  

The 1 vs 16 Games

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

COLUMBUS, OH - NOVEMBER 26: Jared Sullinger #0 of the Ohio State Buckeyes looks to the basket against the Miami RedHawks at Value City Arena on November 26, 2010 in Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State won 66-45. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

The 1-seed is 104-0 against the 16-seed.

Every single time that the top team in one of the four regions has played the lowest-seeded teams, the 1-seed has come out on top.

Thirteen 16-Seeds have come within 10 points of a 1-Seed.

Five 16's have come within 5 points.

• Fairleigh Dickinson lost to Michigan in 1985 (4 points, 59–55)
• Princeton lost to Georgetown in 1989 (1 point, 50–49)
• East Tennessee State lost to Oklahoma in 1989 (1 point, 72–71)
• Murray State lost to Michigan State in 1990 (4 points, 75–71 in OT)
• Western Carolina lost to Purdue in 1996 (2 points, 73–71, WCU missed a possible game-tying shot as time expired)

Two 16-Seeds have come within one point, both in 1989 (Georgetown escaped Princeton 50-49, and Oklahoma out-lasted East Tennessee State 72-71)

Only one 16 vs. 1 game has gone into overtime (Murray State vs. Michigan State in 1990).

While it is enticing to think of the possibilities, it is extremely safe to say that all 1-Seeds will again beat all 16-Seeds.

The 2 vs 15 Games

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

LOUISVILLE, KY - DECEMBER 08: Ben Hansbrough #23 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish dribbles the ball during the game against the Kentucky Wildcats in the 2010 DIRECTV SEC/BIG EAST Invitational at Freedom Hall on December 8, 2010 in Louisville, Kentucky.

The 2-Seed is 100-4 against the 15-Seed (96.15%).

In twenty years, this huge upset has happened just four times.

Here are those four games:

• Richmond took down Syracuse 73–69 in 1991
• Santa Clara beat Arizona 64–61 in 1993.
• Coppin State defeated South Carolina 78–65 in 1997.
• Hampton downed Iowa State 58–57 in 2001.

2011 could be the year for another 15/2 upset, but it is not likely.

I'm probably going to go with the chalk (the favorite) in all four of these again this year.

The 3 vs 14 Games

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

LAS VEGAS, NV - FEBRUARY 12: Billy White #32 and and Kawhi Leonard #15 of the San Diego State Aztecs celebrate their 63-57 victory over the UNLV Rebels at the Thomas & Mack Center February 12, 2011 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Imag

The 3-Seed is 88-16 against the 14-Seed (84.62%).

While this is still a long-shot to take place, we are at least looking at some possibilities in this game.

Last year, (14) Ohio beat (3) Georgetown 97-83

Also last year, (3) New Mexico had to hold off (14) Montana 62-57.

Choosing one 3/14 upset is not going out on a limb. You won't be risking much, but the pay off in your bracket could be nice.

The 4 vs 13 Games

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

LEXINGTON, KY - MARCH 01: Brandon Knight #12 of the Kentucky Wildcats shoots the ball during the SEC game against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Rupp Arena on March 1, 2011 in Lexington, Kentucky. Kentucky won 68-66. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

The 4-Seed is 82-22 against the 13-Seed (78.85%).

Now we're talking about the real possibility that at least one of these games (maybe more), this year, will end up in a BIG upset.

Last year, (13) Murray State defeated (4) Vanderbilt 66-65.

Also last year, (4) Wisconsin had to hold off (13) Wofford 53-49

And finally last year, (4) Purdue had a closer game against (13) Sienna than expected.

The Boilermakers still ended up on top, though, 72-64.

Go for it! Take at least one 13-Seed to win!

The 5 vs 12 Games

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

LAS VEGAS - NOVEMBER 27: Markieff Morris #21 of the Kansas Jayhawks fouls Derrick Williams #23 of the Arizona Wildcats during the championship game of the Las Vegas Invitational at The Orleans Arena November 27, 2010 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Kansas won 87-7

The 5-Seed is 69-35 against the 12-Seed (66.35%).

This is the classic BIG upset game. One of these Babies happens nearly every year.

Last year, (12) Cornell knocked off (5) Temple 78-65.

(12) New Mexico State almost took out an eventual Final Four-participant, (5) Michigan State.The Spartans triumphed in a too-close-for-comfort contest 70-67.

Here is where you begin to be wise in finding which of this years 5/12 match-ups will end up in a BIG upset. 

The 6 vs 11 Games

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

NASHVILLE, TN - FEBRUARY 12: John Jenkins #23 of the Vanderbilt Commodores reacts after making a three-point basket against the Kentucky Wildcats at Memorial Gym on February 12, 2011 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

The 6-Seed is 71-33 against the 11-Seed (68.27%).

Roughly, one out of every three of these games ends up in an upset.

Last year, this happened twice.

(11) Washington beat (6) Marquette 80-78.

And, (11) Old Dominion took down (6) Notre Dame 51-50.

Here is another place where you can look like an expert if you pick at least one, maybe 2, 6/11 upsets.

The 7 vs 10 Games

Nick Laham/Getty Images

NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 24: Reeves Nelson #22 of the UCLA Bruins keeps the ball in play against the Villanova Wildcats during their preseason NIT semifinal at Madison Square Garden on November 24, 2010 in New York City. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

The 7-Seed is 62-42 against the 10-Seed (59.62%).

Last year, three 10's came out on top.

(10) Georgia Tech knocked out (7) Oklahoma State 64-59.

(10) Missouri defeated (7) Clemson 86-78.

(10) St. Mary's bumped (7) Richmond 80-71.

While I don't expect for there to be three 7/10 upsets again this year, it is very possible for at least one or two to happen again this time around.

The 8 vs 9 Games

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

LAS VEGAS, NV - MARCH 07: Steven Gray #41 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs brings the ball up the court against the Saint Mary's Gaels during the championship game of the Zappos.com West Coast Conference Basketball tournament at the Orleans Arena March 7, 2011 i

The 8-Seed is 48-56 against the 9-Seed (46.15%).

This is a mild surprise that the 9's have won more of these match-ups than the 8's.

Last year, true to form, (9) Northern Iowa beat (8) UNLV 69-66.

Also, (9) Wake Forest took out (8) Texas 81-80.

Regardless of who ends up in these 8/9 games, I will be picking at least two upsets from among the four games.