2011 NCAA Tournament: Odds for Top 25 Schools To Be Represented in Final Four
March Madness is upon us. The conference tournaments are underway and every Tom, Dick and Harry from Times Square to Pacific Coast Highway is bracket watching. They are formulating their predictions and deciding who’s getting in and being pushed out. Regardless of the tournament we know one thing is assured: if you are in the Top 25 today you are going to the Dance.
The question is how long will they last?
The watermark for every school, beyond cutting down the nights on Championship night, is making it to the coveted Final Four. It’s the accomplishment that reads on a resume like a graduate degree from Harvard. A top 25 school gets no love for getting bounced in the Sweet 16.
So just what are the odds of each team making it to the Final Four? Let’s handicap every teams chance at hitting the final round. We’ll use the current Top 25, the latest projected bracket, and we’ll cap the highest odds at 50-1, although some might feel that a team has a lesser shot than that.
25. Texas A&M Aggies 50-1
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There is no reason to think that a team like the Aggies won’t make some noise in the tournament but after a blistering 16-1 start this season they fell to 6-6 after that. The Aggies are an inconsistent team that thrives on the offensive glass and dives on their less than stellar shot selection.
In their last bracket update they were penciled in as a seven seed and scheduled to take on Michigan St in the first round, so don’t be surprised if Izzo pulls off the upset. They could make a little noise, but it won’t the kind that propels them to the Final Four.
24. Xavier Musketeers 49-1
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Xavier knows how to put points on the board, and a hot offensive team with a singular talent like Tu Holloway could prove to be the difference in a run to the semi finals, but there’s one thing that Xavier seems to lack, and it’s defense.
The Xavier defense is middling at best and it makes you wonder if they can get stops when they need to. The only bright side is that if they get past the first round they could end up with a favorable road to the Sweet 16, from there a little luck or a bad game could put them in.
23. Missouri Tigers 47-1
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Going deep in the tournament is about doing the little things right. It’s about playing defense, hitting big shots and not making big mistakes or several little ones.
The Missouri Tigers have been a strong team all season but one of the places where the Tigers have been lacking is their ability to crash the boards. While they haven’t been the worst team by far, they are far from the best. Second chance points will matter as the competition gets stiffer and so they’ll need to work on that if they expect top notch results.
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22. Villanova Wildcats 47-1
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Villanova is a nice team, but that’s really where this discussion ends. While they seem to do everything pretty well, they do nothing really well and that could end up being their downfall.
The Wildcats rank 61st in rebounding, and 74th in points per game. Your tourney team should have a little more fire power than this. While we know the tournament could surprise people, they’ll have to get through Kansas in all likelihood to get the semi-finals. You shouldn’t count on that.
21. Vanderbilt Commodores 45-1
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Vanderbilt does some things well, but what they do better than most teams might just be their downfall.
The Commodores tend to turn the ball over on one out of every five possessions. While they have been able to get away with it during the season, they won’t be able to bring that kind of sloppiness to the Dance and expect to make it to the field of four.
20. Arizona Wildcats 43-1
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Welcome to the Punchers Chance round. That round has to start with the Arizona Wildcats. The Wildcats are a bit of a helter skelter team. When Derrick Williams is on, so are the Wildcats, but when Williams is off his game the Cats are easily beatable.
So the situation is that if Williams is on then they can play, but if not then they are an easy out.
19. Utah State Aggies 35-1
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They might be ranked at the bottom of the Top 25, but they have a better shot then most give them credit for.
Again, the tournament isn’t about flash or style, it’s about the ability to grind out a win and the Aggies can do that as well as anyone. Led by the impressive Tai Wesley What they do well is play defense and they attack the glass. If the Aggies can lock down on the defensive end, they could catch a teams sleeping and run a lot deeper than people think.
18. St. John’s Red Storm 34-1
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St. John’s should be getting a lot more love then they already are, but the truth of the matter is there is a glaring weakness on their resume.
The Red Storm are terrible at protecting against the three point line. It’s maybe their weakest aspect and it’s the thing that can get them killed. The truth is that we all know how three point shooting is what many teams live and die by.
When it fails St. Johns will advance, but when it doesn’t they will get blown out. That’s a fact. Don’t count on St. Johns to have a long run in the dance.
17. Florida Gators 30-1
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Florida doesn’t do much to impress you but what they do well is play from experience. They have five guys back from next year and having played together before will lend them help in the tournament this year. All Florida needs to do is get hot and take on some teams that aren’t ready for the moment and it’s quite possible that Florida could make things very interesting in the tournament.
16. Georgetown Hoyas 27-1
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Throw away the stat sheets when it comes to the Hoyas. For as good as they’ve looked and as bad as they can be, there whole Tourney chances hinge on the health of their star Chris Wright.
His hand is healing fine and since he’s expected to be back and more than ready for the Dance there chances are good to make a lot of noise, but if he shows any signs of weakness you can bet they’ll be run out of the tournament well before they are ready.
15. Connecticut Huskies 22-1
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The Huskies are going to make more noise than some might think. Part of the reason that UConn has been so good is their ability to attack the glass and the high level of play that Kemba Walker has given them.
The only think standing in their way is that Walker is not the best shooter on the team but he takes the most shots by far. What UConn will need to do to win is hope that Walker gets better looks and that will mean making sure everyone else hits their shots so he can stay away from a double team.
14. San Diego State Aztecs 20-1
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There is every reason to like San Diego State on a stat sheet. They are a great shooting team with a good ability to rebound and they can D it up when they have to.
The problem with the Aztecs is their schedule. They have only faced two ranked teams this year and are 1-2 against those teams. The Aztecs haven’t been truly battle tested and that will catch up with them in the tournament.
13. Kentucky Wildcats 19-1
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The question for the Wildcats is if ignorance is bliss? No one has benefitted from the NBA’s one year rule than Kentucky head coach John Calipari. He’s gotten fantastic play from his young players, like Terrance Jones, but what his team lacks most often is experience.
Expect Kentucky to make noise in the tournament and if they go out they’ll do so because of a lack of experience. There is no question that the talent is there.
12. Louisville Cardinals 17-1
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You have to give Louisville the edge over Kentucky to march to the Final Four just because of experience alone. Their team is fairly deep and if they can get over some of the road woes they have faced they should be contenders.
However, there is something to keep in mind about Louisville’s perceived road woes. Of their five road losses, only two of them came against unranked teams. They have been pretty solid on the road otherwise and so it shouldn’t be much of a concern during the tournament.
11. Texas Longhorns 14-1
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Their late season collapse is just what we’ve come to expect from them right? The truth is there is nothing standing in the way of Texas ripping through the early part of the tourney and making a serious run at the end of the tourney.
However, there is just something about Texas that always fails to get the job done. Their poor play near the end this year gives us no reason to think they have changed at all.
10. North Carolina Tar Heels 13-1
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No team is creating more buzz heading into the tournament than the Tar Heels. They are finding their groove and have just upset the Duke Blue Devils. They have found production from Harrison Barnes as well as a host of other young players.
The only thing that could derail their tourney hopes is the fact that they are so young, but unlike Kentucky they have flown under the radar a bit this season and that might help them to play with less pressure.
9. Brigham Young Cougars 12-1
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The Cougars have been the talk of the College world for a few months now thanks to the exciting play of Jimmer Fredette. He’s no doubt one of the more sensational players in the game, but BYU losing Brandon Davies will mean more to them than they know.
Those tournament teams are going to dare someone else on BYU to beat them and Davies was not only their leading rebounder, but he was their third scoring option. When Jimmer goes cold they will have wished they had Davies around.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-1
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There isn’t a reason why Notre Dame shouldn’t be considered a lock to at least threaten to get to a Final Four, but Notre Dame just doesn’t seem to give off the air of an elite team.
Maybe it’s the fact that they rarely force a turnover, or maybe it’s the idea that teams that live by their ability to make threes always get killed when things go cold. The play of Ben Hansbrough is paramount to their success, but one bad day and it could be curtains for the Fighting Irish. Regardless, Notre Dame should make it interesting, but just good enough to make it down to four.
7. Syracuse Orangemen 11-1
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If Syracuse gets into the bracket they are projected to with Duke they could make serious noise. The bracket has no real elite teams. Syracuse makes their shots from the field. They are 20th in their field goal percentage.
While Syracuse could use a little help at the line they hit the rest of their shots and that should bode well in a tournament where a poor shooting team can’t last long.
6. Wisconsin Badgers 8-1
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The Badgers do a great job on both ends of the court. They have the most efficient offense in the country. The only place they could have trouble is defending the three but the Badgers don’t seem to let them stop them as they still have one of the better defenses in the country.
The Badgers aren’t a lock to make it to the Final Four but they should make it deep and threaten.
5. Duke Blue Devils 6-1
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This team will take a drastic step forward if Kyrie Irving comes back from a toe injury. If they can get him back that will take them to another level, but if they don’t then they could get beat by the same thing that seems to haunt Duke every year: their low post game.
Duke is the quintessential team that lives and dies by the three point shot. When that goes cold they will need their big man to play better than they have. We’ll see if they can make that happen.
4. Purdue Boilermakers 4-1
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Purdue doesn’t have a glaring weakness. They are a serious contender and should do well in the tournament. Those who disagree will point out the fact that they have not been great on the road, but I am not inclined to believe that.
Purdue is an experienced team that has been through the tourney before. A “road” game in the tourney is an abstract concept because in many cases it’s a road game for everyone. The Boilermakers should be fierce in the tournament.
3. Pittsburgh Panthers 3-1
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Go ahead and comb their stats to find a glaring weakness. It’s not there. Sure, they could be a better foul shooting team, but it hasn’t hurt them much to this point. They could get Ashton Gibbs involved in the offense a bit more than he already is, but again that would only make them better, because it hasn’t hurt them to this point.
The truth is the Panthers have been one of the league’s best teams. They will be a force to be reckoned with.
2. Kansas Jayhawks 3-1
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The Jayhawks don’t have a glaring weakness anywhere, it’s also why they are near the top of every poll. They have experienced players, especially in the Morris brother who continue to improve. The Jayhawks have no one area that they need to be concerned with. They simply need to play well. If they can do that it will be tough to imagine a team beating them.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes 2-1
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Much like the Kansas Jayhawks the Buckeyes have no real weakness. You can cite stats and efficiency ratings but at the end of the day this is the best team in the country and the only thing that derails them in this tournament is a hot team or not showing up to play.
This isn’t a young team so it’s hard to believe they’ll get sucked in by the moment. Jared Sullinger gives them leadership on the court and that should carry them. If they play to potential they’ll make it past the Final Four.
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