NFL Mock Draft: Will Marcell Dareus' Strong Combine Make Him a Top-Three Pick?
I had a feeling things would shift after the combine.
Sifting through all the analysis and facts, I've realized three things: Marcell Dareus definitely helped his cause, Missouri's Blaine Gabbert will be the first quarterback off the board, and you can't go wrong with any of the top-tier, gifted defensive ends available.
The other debate centers around Cam Newton. I like how The National Football Post described the dilemma most teams face, but I'm moving him back down my predictions for now. I think Newton has the raw, incredible football skills you rarely find in a quarterback, but I also know he won't be starting on Day One, and I also know teams won't gamble on a player if there are character concerns.
Someone, though, will take the gamble, and that will change the entire selection process in the first round.
After the combine, I've made some adjustments to my last draft.
Here are my latest predictions:
1. Carolina: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
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Dareus had faster 40 splits than Auburn's Nick Fairley at the combine, and many were impressed with how he showed up in such great shape.
In earlier mocks, I had Dareus going seventh to San Francisco, but something tells me he's not lasting past the fifth pick. ESPN now has Dareus ahead of Fairley on its draft board, too.
What may give him an edge, too, is the fact that Dareus had more than one good year, compared to Fairley, who came to the SEC from the junior college ranks.
In 11 games last year, Dareus had 34 tackles, 11 tackles for loss (41 yards), 4.5 sacks (26 yards), four passes broken up, four pass deflections and 10 quarterback hurries.
2. Denver: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
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I don't agree with it at all, but the argument is out there that having just one year of production could possibly hurt Fairley. Huh?
Wait, so Cam Newton (who also had just one year in the SEC) could win the Heisman, lead his team to a national title and may now be a top-five pick, but it's not an issue for him?Â
That's why I don't put a lot of stock in what the "experts" say.Â
At the same time, I think Denver will shift its focus now that it's retained Champ Bailey. They need plenty of help on defense, and Fairley could be a huge addition.
The All-American, Lombardi Award winner and Southeastern Conference Player of the Year played in 14 games, finishing with 60 total tackles (36 solo), a school-record 24 tackles for loss (106 yards), 11.5 sacks for 74 yards, and 21 quarterback hurries.
3. Buffalo: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M
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Miller's regarded as perhaps the safest pick in the first round.
He shined at the Senior Bowl, then continued to impress at the combine, where he ran a 4.46 40 and was measured with a 37-inch vertical. One other thing to keep in mind: Bills coach Chan Gailey coached Miller at the Senior Bowl.
Last year, Miller had 68 total tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss (101 yards), 10.5 sacks (81 yards), one interception, six passes broken up, seven pass deflections, six quarterback hurries and two fumble recoveries.
4. Cincinnati: DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
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Bowers was recovering from knee surgery, so he didn't work out at the combine.
This pick could go one of three ways: If Carson Palmer retires, the team could go ahead and grab Blaine Gabbert. If Palmer stays and Chad Johnson heads to Oakland, they could go with Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green.
I've had Bowers here before, so I'm not doing anything too drastic. The Bengals have so many needs, and this would address one of them. In 2010, Bowers was second on the team in tackles (63), had a team-high 24 tackles for loss (150 yards), 15.5 sacks and 17 quarterback pressures.
5. Arizona: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
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Some say he didn't throw too well at the combine, but that if he has a good pro day he could become the No.1 pick. Most agree, however, that he is the No.1 quarterback on the board and the most pro-ready.
This year, he completed 301-of-475 passes for 3,186 yards (63.4 percent), with nine interceptions and 16 touchdowns.
The question here is whether Arizona pursues a quarterback via free agency. If Donovan McNabb or Kevin Kolb land in Arizona, then this pick changes unless McNabb is signed for cheap. It's getting harder to picture Gabbert falling out of the top five, but I don't see Buffalo giving up on Ryan Fitzpatrick just yet, which is why I have him here at No. 5.Â
6. Cleveland: WR A.J. Green, Georgia
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Even though Julio Jones outshined him on a broken foot at the combine, Green remains the consensus No.1 wide receiver.
If he doesn't go at four to Cincinnati, then go ahead and take him off the board here.
Despite being suspended for the first four games for violating NCAA rules, Green finished last year with 57 catches for 848 yards (14.9 average) and nine touchdowns.
7. San Francisco: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
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Champ Bailey sticking with Denver will change things up now for Peterson, who ran the 40 in 4.32 seconds at the combine.
I just don't see Jim Harbaugh taking the risk with Newton, and while Ryan Mallett had a good showing at the combine, I don't think he's quite the fit for Harbaugh's offense. Picking Peterson could help a 49ers pass defense that allowed 231 yards passing per game in 2010, plus Harbaugh could get a dangerous return man as well.
In 13 games, he had 42 total tackles, four interceptions (for 134 yards), six pass breakups and 10 pass deflections. He also had one quarterback hurry and one blocked kick.
8. Tennessee: QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
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Mallett did wonders for his stock at the combine, where many were impressed by his accuracy and the throws he made. Now it will be interesting to see how he does in interviews and when it comes to breaking down film.
This year he completed 266 of 411 passes for 3,869 yards and 32 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions,
Tennessee needs a franchise quarterback, and could, like other teams, address this via free agency. The Titans need a few more pieces to be a playoff team, so I could easily see them grabbing a veteran in the free-agent market, then allowing Mallett to adjust gradually to the speed of the NFL.
9. Dallas: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
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Here's a question: If Prince is off the board earlier and Mallett is still available, does Jerry Jones use this as a chance to trade the pick, move down and gain an extra second-round pick?
Some teams are in need of a quarterback, so it's worth considering.
At the same time, if he's still here, the Cowboys have to grab Prince. When he ran the 40 at the combine, his first time broke 4.4 seconds. The second time was at 4.42.
The two-year starter, who had a similar workout to Patrick Peterson, is great in coverage and finished the year with 59 total tackles, one tackle for loss, one sack and 13 passes broken up.
10. Washington: DE Cameron Jordan, Cal
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Here's another spot where you think Cam Newton may leave the board, but I just don't see Mike Shanahan taking that gamble. If Gabbert were still around? Then definitely.
One other draft prediction I saw had the Redskins taking Julio Jones, but I think improving the pass rush is a lot bigger need than wide receiver, which is a need but can be addressed in the second round.
Consider: Albert Haynesworth won't be in the picture, and Washington's biggest pass rushing threat was linebacker Brian Orakpo, who had a team-high 8.5 sacks in 2010. After him, there wasn't a player with more than 2.5 sacks.
This year, Jordan (6'4'', 283 pounds) was fifth on the team with 62 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss (47 yards), 5.5 sacks (32 yards), four pass breakups, and one quarterback hurry.
11. Houston: DE/OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina
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Quinn impressed plenty with how great of shape he was in, and he may have been the most athletic defender at the combine.
I'm keeping him in his same spot from last time, though. As I said before, the Texans could use another pass rusher and help in their secondary.
Quinn (6'5", 270) was ruled permanently ineligible this year by the NCAA for violating rules relating to agent benefits received of $5,642. In 2009, Quinn was first in the ACC and 15th in the nation in tackles for loss (19) and second in the league in sacks (11).
12. Minnesota: DE Aldon Smith, Missouri
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Attention Vikings: Be smart. Don't take the gamble of Cam. Hold out till the second round, then go grab Nevada's Colin Kaepernick.Â
Moving on...
Smith would be a great bookend opposite Jared Allen. He ran a low 4.7 at the combine and impressed many with his quickness and explosion. His leg injury also appears to have fully healed, too.
In 10 games last year, Smith (6'5'', 260 lbs) had 48 total tackles (34 solo), 10 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, one interception, two pass breakups and one quarterback hurry.
13. Detroit: OL Nate Solder, Colorado
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Hey, I'm not the only one who's got Solder off the board here.
Solder (6'9", 315 lbs) leaves Boulder after a dominating career.
He played 2,540 out of a possible 2,542 plays in his sophomore through senior years. In that span, there were a total of 1,400 pass plays called, and Solder allowed just five sacks over a three-year span. He also allowed 21 pressures, meaning the other man he blocked influenced a pass play just 26 times in those 1,400 plays.
14. St. Louis: WR Julio Jones, Alabama
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Crazy photo, huh?
It's funny, because Patrick Peterson was really the only corner who could truly cover Julio over the last two years. Their battles were incredible. It's also a little shocking to me, because it was rare to see someone stiff-arm Peterson that way.
Julio dazzled scouts at the combine when he ran the 40 in 4.4 secondsâwith a broken foot. Some say his hands and his knack for dropping balls could be costly. That's absurd.
Julio (6'4'', 211 lbs) closed out his college career with 78 catches for 1,133 yards (14.5 average) and seven touchdowns. He had 221 yards against Tennessee and 199 in the Iron Bowl against Auburn.Â
15. Miami: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
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Ingram (5'10'', 215 lbs) didn't do any serious damage to his stock and many still have him here are 15th. It makes sense, with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both free agents.
The former Heisman Trophy winner led the Crimson Tide this year in carries (158), rushing yards (875) and rushing touchdowns (13).
I think Miami would be the second team after Minnesota who could gamble on Cam, but I think this next team is my favorite.
16. Jacksonville: QB Cam Newton, Auburn
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I kept going through team after team (and I originally had the Jags taking Purdue's Ryan Kerrigan, because they definitely need help at defensive end), and this made the most sense.
David Garrard is still a decent quarterback, but give Cam a year or two to learn the NFL game, and then you could turn him loose.
Newton completed 11 of 21 passes at the combine and never seemed to find any rhythm with his passes. The read on him is that for every good pass he would throw, there would be three or four bad ones that would follow. Lots could change, though, if he has a solid pro day and does great in interviews, where it's certain he will be grilled.
Newton helped lead Auburn to a perfect 14-0 record and the BCS national championship. He rushed for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns while passing for 2,854 yards and 30 scores.
17. New England: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
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The Patriots do need to improve their pass rush, so this wouldn't be too far of a reach.
In 12 games last season, Kerrigan (6'3'', 255 lbs) had 70 tackles (50 solo), with 26 tackles for loss (111 yards), 12.5 sacks for 73 yards, one pass breakup and one pass defended.
One other reason this could happen: New England has gone with Purdue players before who were 4-3 ends but were able to convert to linebackers in a 3-4 scheme at the NFL level.
"I feel like I'm a good pass rusher. I can get after the passer. But I'm also athletic enough to drop into coverage and be able to cover tight ends and wide receivers," Kerrigan told the team's website. "I've been able to put together some college seasons back-to-back. I think my production overall and I was a captain, I think that will speak volumes for some of the scouts here."
18. San Diego: DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
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You could stick Watt on the line opposite Luis Castillo, and he could probably play outside linebacker in certain schemes too.
Watt (6'6'', 292 lbs) was second on the team with 62 total tackles, plus 21 tackles for loss (91 yards), seven sacks, one interception, eight pass breakups, nine pass deflections and 10 quarterback hurries.
I've seen Watt much earlier than this, as high as eighth. He's one one of the defensive ends that scouts have continued to be enamored with. If he's still on the board, though, the Chargers would be wise to grab him.
19. New York Giants: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
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Castonzo (6'7'', 305 lbs) was a four-year starter and many believe he could play immediately. Questions remain about whether left tackle would be the best fit for him.
20. Tampa Bay: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
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In 13 games last year, Clayborn (6'4'', 285 lbs) had 52 tackles (19 solo), seven tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
Clayborn's extremely athletic and aggressive and finds ways to be disruptive even if he's blocked at first on certain plays. One downside with him sometimes are the angles he takes on plays, and he has been criticized for how he's matched up against talented tackles.
21. Kansas City: WR Titus Young, Boise State
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Yup, I get some of these way wrong. I never said I'm Rick Gosselin. This one, though, is dead on.
When you look at Kansas City's list of leading receivers after Dwayne Bowe and it reads tight end Tony Moeaki (556 yards), then running back Jamaal Charles (468), you have a problem.
Last season, Young had a team-high 71 receptions for 1,215 yards and nine touchdowns.
The Chiefs are a young team with a ton of promise. I think Titus could give them another option that would stretch the field, and I think he's more proven than Torrey Smith or Jonathan Baldwin, two other receivers that have been mentioned in the first round.
22. Indianapolis: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
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The 6'7'', 327-pound offensive tackle was a consensus All-American and Outland Trophy winner. Carimi, who started 13 games, was also named Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year.
Carimi, who plays left tackle, certainly isn't short on confidence. When asked about his ability, he pointed out that he went against four potential first-round picks last year, which is true: Adrian Clayborn (Iowa), Cameron Heyward (Ohio State), Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue) and teammate J.J. Watt in practice.
23. Philadelphia: OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
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The Eagles allowed 52 sacks this season, so it's probably wise if they improve that line a little.
Sherrod graded out at 90 percent or higher nine times as a senior, and helped Mississippi State average nearly 215 yards rushing per game, which was 16th nationally and second in the Southeastern Conference. In eight games this year, the Bulldogs rushed for over 200 yards.
I did see somewhere else that the Eagles could possibly go with cornerback or outside linebacker here. For now, I think I'll stand pat with this pick.
24. New Orleans: DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
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I think the consensus among most is that the Saints will be addressing their dreadful defensive line, which is in desperate need of help.
Liuget finished last season with 63 total tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, three pass breakups, three pass deflections and 10 quarterback hurries.
25. Seattle: QB Jake Locker, Washington
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Locker had a solid enough showing at the combine that he likely locked himself into a spot in the first round. I just don't see any other team taking a shot on him other than the Seahawks.
Locker had seven 200-yard games this year, including 310 yards passing in a 32-31 victory at USC. He finished the year completing 179 of 316 passes with nine interceptions for 2,209 yards and 17 touchdowns. He also had 101 carries for 302 yards and five touchdowns.
26. Baltimore: WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh
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I've seen plenty of reports that Baltimore could elect to draft another cornerback, so it's very possible Jimmy Smith from Colorado or Curtis Brown from Texas could be taken here.
I'll stick with Baldwin for now, which would give a talented Ravens offense one more weapon. He had 42 catches for 677 yards (16.1 avg.) this season and five touchdowns.
27. Atlanta: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
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I've said before that the Falcons should make a serious push for Raiders All-Pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha.
If they don't land him in free agency, then Smith would be the next best option.
Smith (6'2'', 203 lbs) allowed just 11 pass completions in man coverage during his final two seasons. Last year he was a first-team Big 12 selection after finishing with 70 total tackles and five passes broken up in 12 games. He finishes his career with 183 tackles.
28. New England: OT Tyron Smith, USC
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Smith (6'5'', 291 lbs) played primarily at right offensive tackle and helped the Trojans offense average 31 points and just over 431 total yards per game.
You could switch Smith over to the left side, keeping Sebastian Vollmer at right tackle.
29. Chicago: OG/C Mike Pouncey, Florida
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Any chance you can get to improve protection for Jay Cutler is a good thing.
Pouncey's a natural guard, but can also switch to center and displays great strength and athleticism.
30. New York Jets: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
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He had a solid showing at the combine and showed off his blitzing ability, but had a hard time breaking 4.8 in the 40, which could cause him to slide.
The playmaker has freakish size at 6'4'', 255 pounds and put up big numbers again with 68 tackles, 10 tackles for a loss and four sacks (13 yards).
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: DT Phil Taylor, Baylor
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You've got Casey Hampton locked in at nose tackle for a few more years and Chris Hoke is a free agent, so there's really no one to groom to take Hampton's spot at the moment.
Why not grab Taylor, then shift him over?
Young (6'4'', 340) has quietly worked his way into first-round consideration. He played in 13 games last year, registering 62 tackles (35 solo), seven tackles for loss, two sacks, two pass breakups, two pass deflections and three quarterback hurries.
32. Green Bay: CB Curtis Brown, Texas
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Brown clocked in at just under 4.5 in the 40, and scouts loved his hips and his backpedaling ability at the combine.
Besides playing cornerback, Brown (6'0'', 184) has been a special teams player for the Longhorns, and finishes with 35 career special teams tackles. In 12 games last season, he had 26 total tackles, one tackle for loss, one interception (74 yards), six passes broken up and seven passes defended.
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