Projecting NFL Teams Most Likely to Tank for 2027 Following Free Agency, 2026 Draft

The 2026 NFL draft went as expected at the very top. The Las Vegas Raiders finished last season with the league's worst record and were rewarded with the chance to draft Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza first overall.

While the Raiders will never publicly say that they intentionally tried "earning" the No. 1 overall pick, their decision to sit Maxx Crosby late in the season certainly suggests as much. With draft prospects like Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Darian Mensah, and Jeremiah Smith slated to be available in 2027, NFL teams may deliver their own versions of intentional futility late this season.

The unknown is which teams will actually be in a position to chase the top pick over the second half of the season. We'll try answering that very question here by examining the directions teams have taken this offseason, the prospects they're most likely to covet in 2027, and the moves they've made in free agency and the draft.

Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Jeremiyah Love

The Arizona Cardinals dumped quarterback Kyler Murray early in the offseason. While they signed Gardner Minshew and used a third-round flier on Miami's Carson Beck, it feels like Arizona is setting the stage for a quarterback drafted in 2027.

Make no mistake, Beck will have a chance to win the starting job and audition for the future if he beats out Minshew and Jacoby Brissett—assuming Brissett, who went 1-11 last season, remains in contention for the gig.

Brissett has not been present for the start of Arizona's offseason program and is seeking a new contract, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

The Cardinals didn't take significant steps to upgrade their overall roster in free agency, which wasn't altogether unsurprising, given the $47.5 million cap hit Arizona absorbed to release Murray. With their first pick in the draft, the Cardinals took Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, a player who will help fill the stands but who may not help deliver wins until he has more around him.

If Beck doesn't show serious potential while also picking up unexpected wins, Arizona will be in the QB market next April. The Bleacher Report Scouting Department recently paired the Cardinals with Texas' Manning in its early 2027 mock draft, but QBs like Oregon's Moore, Miami's Mensah, and South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers should also earn consideration.

Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

Michael Penix Jr.

To be clear, the Atlanta Falcons aren't operating like a team that plans to tank in 2027—and they shouldn't be.

Atlanta hired an experienced head coach in Kevin Stefanski, added a former Pro Bowl quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa, franchise-tagged star tight end Kyle Pitts, and added players who help address existing needs, such as cornerback Avieon Terrell and wide receiver Zachariah Branch.

If the Falcons can get above-average quarterback play, they're more likely to be in the playoff mix than the race for a top draft choice. After all, we're talking about a team that finished with an 8-9 record in 2025, just like the NFC South-winning Carolina Panthers.

The problem is that Atlanta isn't guaranteed to get reliable quarterback play. Kirk Cousins is now with the Raiders, Tagovailoa hasn't played particularly well since the 2023 season, and 2024 first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. is coming off a torn ACL.

On top of that, it's fair to wonder if new president of football Matt Ryan and the Falcons front office have done enough to be more than average with a quarterback like Tagovailoa or Penix this season.

"I don't know what Atlanta is doing yet," one unnamed executive said, per The Athletic's Mike Sando. "They have talked about raising the floor, but wouldn't you rather bottom out or raise the ceiling?"

The Falcons were just 3-6 with Penix as the starter last season. If they have a similar start in 2026, there's a real chance they could end their QB experiments and try to land a prospect like Sellers, USC's Jayden Maiava, or Notre Dame's C.J. Carr inside the top 10.

Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/David Dermer

Deshaun Watson

Like the Cardinals, the Cleveland Browns feel like a team preparing to be competitive next year.

Cleveland addressed major needs along the line and at receiver by adding the likes of Tytus Howard, Elgton Jenkins, Spencer Fano, KC Concepcion, and Denzel Boston. However, the Browns still have one of the league's most underwhelming quarterback rooms.

Sixth-round rookie Taylen Green is a talented player who has some long-term upside but isn't likely to be in the mix for this year's starting gig. And it sounds like the Browns may not give a legitimate audition to second-year quarterbacks Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel, either.

According to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, Deshaun Watson emerged from voluntary minicamp "with an edge" over Sanders "in a two-man quarterback competition" and has the "inside track to be named the Browns QB1."

Watson is entering the final year of his contract, and given the poor play he's provided Cleveland when healthy—he's coming back from two Achilles tears—he's probably not a long-term option even if he does keep Sanders on the sideline.

Like Green, Sanders was a Day 3 draft selection. Gabriel was a third-round pick. None of the quarterbacks on Cleveland's roster will prevent the Browns from taking a prospect like Manning or Moore if they finish with one of the league's worst records.

And considering Cleveland has won just eight games over the past two seasons, that seems more likely than not.

Miami Dolphins

AP Photo/Jim Rassol

Malik Willis

The Miami Dolphins did take a chance on the top quarterback in free agency, former Green Bay Packers backup Malik Willis. However, the gamble on the 26-year-old, who has made six career starts, doesn't have to be a lengthy one.

While Miami signed Willis to a three-year, $67 million contract that includes $45 million guaranteed, it can release him after two years and save $13.6 million in 2028 cap space.

Aside from adding Willis, most of Miami's focus this offseason has been on tearing down the roster. The Dolphins released Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Bradley Chubb before trading Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick. They then seemed to take a quantity-over-quality approach to the draft.

Miami passed on arguably the draft's best prospect, Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, to trade down and acquire more capital. It made 13 total draft selections, and many of the rookies may see significant playing time this season.

Even if Willis plays up to the ceiling he flashed in Green Bay (134.6 QB rating), he may not win many games with a rookie-heavy roster and a first-time head coach in Jeff Hafley. If that's the case, Miami could target a blue-chip receiver prospect like Ohio State's Smith or a lineman like Texas' Trevor Goosby to aid Willis.

If the Willis experiment doesn't go as planned, the Dolphins could target a top QB prospect and keep the veteran around as a one-year bridge in 2027.

New York Jets

AP Photo/Heather Khalifa

David Bailey

There might not be a team that improved as much in the draft as the New York Jets.

New York made three first-round selections—Texas Tech edge David Bailey, Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq, and Indiana receiver Omar Cooper Jr.—and all three should contribute right away.

What the Jets haven't done is sort out any kind of long-term quarterback plan. Trade acquisition Geno Smith is a placeholder, regardless of what head coach Aaron Glenn may try to insinuate.

"I just feel like he's the guy that's going to lead us to the promised land," Glenn said, per ESPN's Rich Cimini.

Fourth-round rookie Cade Klubnik was worth a dart throw based on the flashes he showed at Clemson. However, he won't prevent New York from drafting a quarterback early in 2027.

And the Jets appear likely to draft a quarterback early next April, even if they win more games than expected this season. New York also owns first-round picks from the Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys (more favorable of Dallas' and Green Bay's selections).

With three first-round picks in 2027, the Jets can afford to trade up for a prospect like Carr or Sellers and then pair him with a supporting cast that may include Sadiq, Cooper, Garrett Wilson, Mason Taylor and Breece Hall.

Tennessee Titans

AP Photo/David Zalubowski,

Cam Ward

The Tennessee Titans used the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft on quarterback Cam Ward, so they won't be eager to dive back into the QB pool again in 2027.

However, that doesn't mean they'll be sold enough on the Miami product to dismiss the possibility entirely.

Ward did not play well as a rookie, though he was surrounded by one of the league's worst supporting casts. The Titans took steps to improve his support system, but have they done enough?

Tennessee has a better receiving corps after signing Wan'Dale Robinson and using the fourth overall pick on Ohio State's Carnell Tate. However, it may still lack a legitimate No. 1 target, it doesn't have a top-tier tight end, and it did little to improve an O-line that surrendered 56 sacks last season.

It's also fair to question how Tennessee's revamped defense will perform under new head coach Robert Saleh, who fielded the league's worst defense and a four-win squad as a first-year head coach with the Jets in 2021.

If Ward shows significant growth with an improved win total, the Titans could chase prospects such as Smith or Goosby, who was Tennessee's pick in the Scouting Department's 2027 mock.

"The Titans can draft the best tackle in the draft and improve their efficiency for years to come," B/R's Brent Sobleski wrote.

If Ward disappoints for the second straight year, Tennessee may have to weigh his upside against that of 2027 prospects like Manning, Mensah, Moore, Maiava, Sellers and Carr.