
NHL Power Rankings: Fifth Installment (Mar. 6, 2011)
Why read my power rankings? While it may be a tiresome topic, I feel like I bring a unique approach to my rankings.
Rather than simply ranking the teams 1-30, I break them up into six categories:
Cup Favorites: Teams that should surprise no one if they to go all the way. The class of the league.
Cup Contenders: Teams that will surprise many if they go all the way, but shouldn't. Conference powers that are expected to at least make it out of the first round.
Sleepers: Teams that should make the playoffs and are equipped to pull off a surprising playoff run. Last year, the Philadelphia Flyers dominated this section of my rankings.
Bubble Teams: Teams that may or may not make the playoffs. A bubble team is talented enough to make the playoffs, but is not (or is not playing like) a legitimate threat.
Longshots: Teams that are not likely to make the playoffs. If they get hot, they could squeeze in as a No. 7 or 8 seed, but are fringe teams at best.
Bottom Feeders: Teams that are nowhere near contention and almost guaranteed a high draft pick. Even early in the season, landing in this category means that the playoffs are very unlikely.
Given this system, my rankings may not exactly reflect how a team has played to this point. A team may be playing over their heads and land in the Cup Contenders category, even though they have more points than a Cup Favorite.
A team may be placed in the Sleepers category, even if they are barely in playoff position, because, in my opinion, that team has underachieved to this point.
In the end, these rankings are more subjective than many, as there is no formula. But I believe that the only point of this type of writing is to stir up a discussion; formulaic power rankings lull most to sleep. As I'm probably doing right now.
Cup Favorites
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1. Boston Bruins—The Bruins already had the league's most stifling defense, and with Tomas Kaberle added to the blue line, they only widen the gap, as well as drastically improve their one weakness: the power play.
2. Vancouver Canucks—Taking their lumps like any top team, but still lead the NHL in goal differential and points, and still appear to be slightly more complete than any of the 10 jockeying teams beneath them.
Cup Contenders
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3. San Jose Sharks—The Sharks have been "hot" for too long to still be considered hot and are entering the realm of "dominant." They have been the best team in the NHL for what is now over a quarter of the season and are 7-3 against Vancouver, Detroit and Chicago this year.
4. Philadelphia Flyers—The Flyers, like Vancouver, still lead their conference despite mediocre play during the last couple weeks. Unlike Vancouver, the Flyers no longer lead their conference in +/- and do not look as complete as Boston.
5. Detroit Red Wings—Detroit has been sitting at No. 2 for over two months now, but with San Jose beating them twice this week to take three of four (and sweep at the Joe) from the Wings this season, their potential home ice advantage in that 2 vs. 3 semifinal may not be a big edge.
6. Pittsburgh Penguins—After going 2-4-4 in their last ten, the Penguins have left the upper tier of Eastern playoff teams and fallen into the middle, now in a dogfight for home ice in the first round. But if the entire team, injured as they are, scraps and claws their way down the stretch and into the playoffs (and they will make the playoffs), a few returning injured players, Crosby or no Crosby, could sky-rocket them at just the right time.
Sleepers
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7. Tampa Bay Lightning—Tampa Bay is now fourth in the East in points, and now I don't have to explain myself for keeping them out of the "cup contenders" category. As great a home team as they are, they are one loss away from slipping out of the division lead and losing their home-ice edge. And as clutch a team as they are, no one is expecting them to win a 4 vs. 5 series with Pittsburgh. So I'm still sleeping.
8. Los Angeles Kings—Never dead in the water, but certainly on the bubble six weeks ago, the Kings have been tough recently. A dynamic blue-line and goaltender kept this team afloat, and now an improved top line (Dustin Penner) makes the Kings more dangerous looking than ever.
9. Chicago Blackhawks—The Hawks spent so much time out of the top eight that Sharks and Canucks fans everywhere started to believe. The Blackhawks; however, found their game, and a simple seven-game winning streak has them back in fourth. This still isn't last year's team, but their eventual playoff foes better not think that way.
10. Washington Capitals—The Caps have simply hung around all season, never getting extremely hot or gravely cold. Still, after three straight wins, they find themselves one point off the division pace and only six away from the top spot in the East. No. 1 didn't suit them last year, but they don't need to worry about easing into the playoffs this time around, no matter where they finish.
11. Montreal Canadiens—Three straight by the Habs have lifted them away from the ugly Eastern Conference bubble and into a sixth spot that could net them a first round meeting with Washington again or possibly Tampa Bay. Yep, Montreal's collective eye just widened.
Bubble Teams
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12. New York Rangers—The Rangers have spent most of this season as a sleeper, a team that looked like they could make a lot of noise come playoff time. Now, with the surging Sabres and Devils, New York looks less like a dangerous lower seed and more like last year's team that didn't have the intangibles to kick it into gear when it counted.
13. Calgary Flames—This team has really tested my ranking system. In my description of each ranking, which I start off every installment with, I describe the "Bottom Feeders" category as such: "Even early in the season, landing in this category means that the playoffs are very unlikely." Well, Calgary landed there back in December. In my defense, I explained then how they were only ranked so low due to the ultra competitive West, but I still would have laughed at anyone who said they'd see a day in the top eight again this season.
14. Buffalo Sabres—Like Calgary, this team looked dead in the water earlier this season, landing as low as No. 24 in the power rankings. The Sabres haven't set the world on fire since then, but given the weak bottom half of the East, their steady 12-5-3 in their last 20 has given them what is now the inside track on the No. 7 seed.
15. Phoenix Coyotes—The Coyotes led the pacific less than a week ago, and now, points per game wise, are in last. Still, the 'Yotes consistency this year has been more impressive than Dallas' or Anaheim's, and a tough stretch run for the latter two could help a steady Phoenix grab a playoff spot.
16. Nashville Predators—The Predators enjoyed a stretch in which they gained some separation from the playoff bubble and sat in fourth for a couple weeks, but mediocre play of late has them back on the outside looking in. Barry Trotz's boys do have a home-heavy schedule down the stretch and a +12 rating that suggests they belong in the top eight, but their playoffs must begin now.
17. Dallas Stars—The Stars have spent more days atop the NHL's best and most competitive division than any other team, but have fallen back into the middle of the pack as preseason favorites have found their game and surged past Dallas. Still, the Stars have proven to be a better team than people thought, and a late season push would be hard for their division rivals to fend off.
18. Carolina Hurricanes—The 'Canes are the definition of a bubble team. While Carolina has enough talent and star power to will their way into the postseason, there is also little enough glue, depth, and consistency to guarantee no collapse. The 'Canes are fragile, and falling out of the top eight for a day could be their end.
19. Anaheim Ducks—A current three-game winning streak is keeping this team afloat, but the Ducks have four divisional opponents ahead of them right now, all who appear to have more ability to win when they need to than Anaheim. Of course, the games that every team needs still loom ahead, so Anaheim is still in it as much as the others.
20. Minnesota Wild—Why haven't the Wild gone away? Playing in the West's weakest division has helped, and they, like Dallas, may have more than people think. However, Colorado, Columbus and St. Louis have made the 14-team race into an 11-team one, and Minnesota appears the most likely candidate to cut it down to 10.
Longshots
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21. New Jersey Devils—New Jersey hasn't appeared anywhere above No. 28 in any of my power rankings this year, so a climb to No. 21 is very impressive. But the fact is that New Jersey has been playing like a cup favorite for almost two months, going 19-2-2 in that time. They dug such a deep hole in the first half that they needed to almost keep up this pace (which is almost impossible) in order to make the playoffs, and if they do, they may not be able to stand in the first round.
22. Toronto Maple Leafs—The Leafs have been playing solid hockey lately without Kaberle. It is likely too little too late, but the returns they got in that trade as well as an encouraging end to this season may finally move this franchise in the right direction.
23. Columbus Blue Jackets—The Jackets have been decent all year, but in the West this year, you need to be above average to contend. Columbus stayed in contention for much of this season, but their thin defense and awful power play have been their undoing.
24. St. Louis Blues—The Blues, unlike Columbus, appeared to be in the playoff chase for good midway through the season. But as conference play has increased, the Blues have found themselves outmatched by most of the the deep Western Conference. A less than stellar defense was set back years by the Erik Johnson trade, but a choice has to be made when there's a sizable lack of offense as well.
25. Atlanta Thrashers—The surprise team of the season and the disappointment of the season (ATL and NJD) now are dead even in terms of points per game. By the end of year, Atlanta will have likely fallen even further, as this team is incredibly flawed. The blue line must be severely upgraded, and Dustin Byfuglien must move back to forward where he could help this team more than he can as a load-bearing No. 1 defenseman.
26. Florida Panthers—The Panthers valiantly battled all season and never fell too far out of contention, but seeing that his team was not in the top eight and couldn't possibly play any better, Florida GM Dale Tallon unloaded more than anyone else at the trade deadline. Essentially, the Panthers conceded, and given that, it's unclear why the 34-year-old Tomas Vokoun remains.
Bottom Feeders
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27. Colorado Avalanche—Last installment, I had the Avs ranked No. 16, and I stated: "The Avs are too good offensively to disappear and too bad defensively to gain much ground...they should shop for a top four defenseman..." The Avs were, as it was, too bad defensively to not disappear, and so they took my advice and added Erik Johnson. While he may very well end up being that blue liner they need, they now need to find another winger as dangerous as Chris Stewart; they won't be back in the postseason until they do.
28. New York Islanders—The Islanders likely have the worst roster in the NHL, and given that, their 73 point pace (third worst) is somewhat respectable. They are still completely lost as a franchise, but they do at least have a young group that has shown some resilience and chemistry.
29. Edmonton Oilers—Despite a 7-3 record in their last ten, Edmonton is still virtually tied with Ottawa for the league's worst point percentage. Even more pathetic than that is their 13.7 percent power play, as well as their 44.3 percent on draws. This team is stacked with young talent and has a potentially bright future, but with Taylor Hall out for the season and Dustin Penner out of town, the present is ugly and the future may now be more distant.
30. Ottawa Senators—It's almost as if one day in December or around then, the Senators looked at themselves, realized how bad they were, and started playing like it, non-stop. Their -59 rating is by far the worst in the NHL, as is their .70 five-on-five ratio. Unlike the three other bottom feeders, this team is not injured or going through the bumps of rebuilding, they are simply flawed like no other NHL team.
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