NFL Combine 2011 Results: How Strong QB and WR Play Helps the Detroit Lions

The more we come to understand about the 2011 NFL draft class, the more we come to realize how complicated it is to draft when outside of the top 10.

The last time the Detroit Lions had a draft pick this low was 2008, when they passed on Chris Johnson and Rashard Mendenhall drafted Gosder Cherilus with the 17th overall pick.

Of course, Lions fans know that was a very different era. Where that particular regime took a 9-7 team and proceeded to earn a top 10 draft pick for the next six seasons, it has taken this regime all of two seasons to work out of an 0-16 hole and into the No. 13 spot.

Of course, that's what makes this draft that much more intriguing. The Lions are facing a situation where they have a fair number of needs on the team, but no real reason (or reasonable ability) to reach up and fill one with an elite player.

That leaves the Lions with two options: Wait for the best available player to fall, or wait for someone else to reach. The good news in both cases is that Detroit's lowest priority (at least in the first round) is exactly what the majority of teams trade up for: offensive skill position players.

Given the Lions' current roster, seeing the team use that 13th overall pick on a WR, QB, or RB would be a shock and an utter abomination.

I know there are rumblings that it's time to move on from Matthew Stafford, so let me say something about that. If you're the type of person who thinks two seasons is enough time to give up on a $70 million investment after a series of unfortunate (and comparatively minor) injuries, well, take some time to think about why you're not an NFL general manager.

Now, there are teams in the top 12 that desperately need skill positions.

Buffalo could use a QB and WR (or somebody, anybody, to get excited about).

Cincinnati needs a whole new stable of WRs, and Carson Palmer's future there is uncertain.

Arizona, Tennessee, Minnesota and San Francisco need new QBs. Cleveland needs WRs, and who knows what's going on with Washington. Clinton Portis is gone, Donovan McNabb is being treated like a fifth-round rookie QB, and the receiving corps lacks reliable playmakers.

That's most of the top 12 needing players Detroit doesn't. The more teams in the top 12 snap up those players, the better Detroit's position is.

Obviously, only a few of those teams will jump at the skill positions. Some of them have more pressing needs on defense, and some of them will feel like they can fill those needs in the later rounds.

But the combine has made things interesting.

Blaine Gabbert was considered a top-10 prospect pre-combine, and nothing appears to have changed.

Cam Newton, skills aside, will probably go higher than he should because of his athletics combined with some Tebow-esque reasons such as, "because he's a winner." If Oakland had a first-round pick, I could confirm it.

Jake Locker cost himself a lot of money at the Senior Bowl, but may have recovered some with a strong combine in which he went toe-to-toe with Cam Newton athletically.

Ryan Mallett is still a character concern, but was arguably the star of the weekend. The ball seems to zip out of his hands, and he had a prolific college career. It will depend largely on his interviews and meetings, but he could have moved up to the first round.

Colin Kaepernick can throw the ball out of the stadium, which might be enough for some teams to overlook his flaws (again, if only Oakland...).

Will all of these guys end up picked in the top 12? Not a chance. But if even one or two of them make it, it's one more option for the Lions at 13. Even if one of them moves from the top of the third round to the top of the second, that's just sliding more players down to the Lions with the 44th pick in the second round.

Of course, it doesn't have to be a top 12 team that's interested in these players for the Lions to benefit from their rising stock.

To illustrate, let's observe the case of Julio Jones.

Jones produced arguably the most eye-popping workout of the entire event. Already widely considered a top 15 player, he may just have broad-jumped into the top 10.

This is very troubling for the St. Louis Rams, who, picking at 14, were almost certainly licking their chops to get sophomore QB Sam Bradford a go-to weapon.

Washington, picking at 10, could be looking for a replacement for Santana Moss, and Minnesota, at 12, could be looking to replace Sidney Rice. Both players are slated for free agency.

If the Rams are smitten enough with him, they could look to trade up to the ninth spot, the one currently occupied by the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are expected to look for a DE or CB at their spot, either of which would take a target (Prince Amukamara?) off the Lions' board.

Even if this isn't the case, Jones isn't expected to fall past St. Louis, so anybody in need of a potential franchise WR in spots 15-21 (Jacksonville? New England? Kansas City?) would need to trade up above St. Louis' 14th pick to get him.

And the team sitting at 13 is expected to be very interested in trading down.

Any of these scenarios involve an NFL team putting lots of stake into the results of the combine, which is often folly. But we see it happen every year. S0metimes it works out (Chris Johnson), sometimes not so much (the majority of the Raiders' picks over the last decade).

In this instance, it's less an issue of whether the Lions believe the combine hype or not.

It's about whether they can take advantage of those who do.