2011 NFL Mock Draft: Will Julio Jones Jump into the Top 10?
2011 NFL Mock Drafts are only going to look more and more plausible as we speed towards April 28th. And with the NFL combine currently under way, draft stocks are going to rise and fall in a hurry.
At this point in time, we still have no real notion of who the Carolina Panthers might select with their No. 1 overall pick. Beyond them, it gets even more difficult. There is no shortage of rumors about which players might be drawing the gaze of certain teams, but it's hard to tell how many of them are actually valid.
Regardless, we have no choice but to proceed anyway—and to do the best Nostradamus imitation possible.
At the forefront of our minds today is Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones, who is widely regarded as the second best receiver in this year's draft class next to Georgia's A.J. Green. Well, we'll see about that. And we're also going to see about where Cam Newton goes and where each of the many studly defense ends might wind up.
If this sounds like fun, then go ahead and start the slideshow.
1. Carolina Panthers: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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Why He's Special: Fairley is a 6'5", 300-pound beast that can penetrate the line of scrimmage at will. He dominated the toughest conference in college football in 2010 and was difference-maker against Oregon in the National Championship game. What's not to like?
Why He Goes Here: The last defensive tackle to go No. 1 overall was Dan Wilkinson in 1994. Fairley is good enough to end the streak.
Why He Fits: I've been going back and forth between Fairley and Da'Quan Bowers for the No. 1 overall pick. At this point, it's simply hard to ignore all the momentum he has. And if I'm the Panthers, I'm looking at the kind of impact Ndamukong Suh made with the Lions last year, and Fairley offers that same kind of promise.
2. Denver Broncos: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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Why He's Special: Bowers is nearly as big as Fairley at 6'4" and 275 pounds but is undoubtedly quicker. He's the best pass rusher of this year's class, and he's drawn comparisons to Julius Peppers, which is obviously quite the compliment.
Why He Goes Here: One way or the other, it's hard to see Bowers not going with either of the top two picks. He's that good.
Why He Fits: For the longest time, I thought Patrick Peterson was a lock for this pick. But then the Broncos went and re-signed Champ Bailey, so it's clear that their focus in the draft is on improving their front seven. The word out of the combine is that they're meeting with Bowers at some point this weekend. If they want him, they'll be able to have him.
3. Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
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Why He's Special: Miller's draft stock has seen a mercurial rise over the last two months and for good reason. He dominated the Senior Bowl, and he is one of the best pass rushers in the draft, and is also good in coverage. The one player you often hear him compared to is Derrick Thomas. This is also a good thing.
Why He Goes Here: Even I think this is too high for Miller right now. But he wasn't even close to cracking the Top 10 not too long ago, so at this point, nothing would surprise me.
Why He Fits: The Bills would probably prefer to have either of the guys that just got drafted. But because they need help in both run support and the pass rush, maybe Miller wouldn't constitute much of a reach after all. Then again, I've been known to dabble in stupidity from time to time, so I could be wrong.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
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Why He's Special: It's been a while since we last saw Robert Quinn on the gridiron, as the UNC defensive end was suspended for the 2010 season. The word from the combine is that he measured at 6'4" and 265 pounds, and he has freakish 34-inch arms. He might be a little raw thanks to his lost year, but it's a good bet that he will open (or reopen) a few eyes by owning the combine.
Why He Goes Here: Prepare for quite a few defensive ends to go in the first round, and it's a good bet that Quinn will be seen as the next best option after Bowers.
Why He Fits: The Bengals are a mess. But for as much as they need an heir apparent at quarterback, they need help on the defensive line. Enter Quinn. Problem solved.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
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Why He's Special: Dareus tends to get lost in the shuffle thanks to Fairley, but he's no slouch. He's got great pass rush skills and is also quite good at penetrating the line of scrimmage. He also has the goods to play anywhere on any defensive line, whether we're talking a 3-4 or a 4-3 scheme.
Why He Goes Here: Yet another guy who is probably going too early. The other option here is Peterson, but I have a hard time seeing the Cardinals drafting a cornerback when they already have a handful of youngsters.
Why He Fits: The Cardinals would probably like to have Von Miller, but they're going to have to boost their front seven either way, and Dareus could fill their need for a nose tackle. And for the record, I expect them to fill their need for a quarterback via a trade or free agency.
6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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Why He's Special: Green was suspended for the first four games of the 2010 season and still ended up with 848 yards receiving and nine TDs. That should tell you how dominant he is. And because he's got a big frame, great speed and a knack for making insane catches, he should be able to do so at the next level as well.
Why He Goes Here: Green has gone to the Browns in every mock I've done, and I see no reason why the Browns should draft anyone other than the best wide receiver of the 2011 class.
Why He Fits: The Browns have their share of holes, but I've always been of the mind that a trio of Colt McCoy, Peyton Hillis and A.J. Green would give opponents bad heartburn.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
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Why He's Special: At 6'1" and 210 pounds, Peterson is pretty big for a corner. Yet, he also has top-flight speed, and he has a great nose for the ball. If a team were so inclined, he's also quite useful in the return game.
Why He Goes Here: This is definitely the lowest I've ever had Peterson going in a draft. I blame the Broncos for that. Jerks.
Why He Fits: I may be blaming the Broncos, but Jim Harbaugh and the Niners will probably send them some roses if Peterson falls to them. After all, they need help in the secondary, and Peterson is where they're going to find it.
8. Tennessee Titans: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
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Why He's Special: Gabbert may not boast any overly-impressive career numbers from his career at Missouri. But what he does have is the right size (a shade under 6'5"), a strong arm and a quick release. With a little development, numbers will come.
Why He Goes Here: Gabbert ahead of Cam Newton? Hey, it wasn't all that outlandish a couple weeks ago. Gabbert may not be doing much showcasing at the combine, but don't be surprised if he impresses scouts during Missouri's pro day on March 17th.
Why He Fits: The Titans need a quarterback, and my gut tells me they won't be quick to grab a player like Newton, who is ever-so-similar to Vince Young. Plus, they have the time to develop Gabbert via a little on-the-job training. Unless, of course, they'd rather go with Rusty Smith.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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Why He's Special: He's big, he's fast, he's got a strong arm, he won the Heisman Trophy and he led the Tigers to a BCS National Championship. Nuff said.
Why He Goes Here: There would probably be some pretty bad vibes on draft day if Gabbert was drafted ahead of Newton. Luckily, they won't last long if the Cowboys take him with the No. 9 pick.
Why He Fits: It makes absolutely no sense that the Cowboys seem so interested in Cam Newton. Am I making too much of their meeting at the combine? Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that the Cowboys should be the last team to have an interest in Newton. But then again, this is Jerry Jones' team, and we all know how he loves hype. And because I've already had one Cowboy fan tell me that the team should actually trade up to get him, maybe this isn't so crazy after all.
10. Washington Redskins: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
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Why He's Special: ESPN recently featured Watt's offseason workouts, and it was overwhelmingly apparent that everything people say about his motor is absolutely true. The dude is an Energizer Bunny. He's also a great penetrator, and the thinking is that he can play the end position in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 line.
Why He Goes Here: After Bowers and Quinn, you come to Watt, and he's really not that all that far behind them in terms of skill.
Why He Fits: I actually wouldn't be at all surprised if the Skins went for Julio Jones or Mark Ingram right here, as they definitely need some help at the skill positions. However, Washington also ranked next to last in defense last season, so they might be able to steal a few wins if they attempt to fix that problem first.
11. Houston Texans: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
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Why He's Special: Amukamara may not have Peterson's size, but he might have better instincts. He's a true shutdown corner, and the fact that he did not record a single interception in 2010 is a pretty good indication that opponents gave him the Nnamdi Asomugha treatment.
Why He Goes Here: If the Cowboys don't draft Newton, I can see them taking Amukamara. But, if they don't, Texas seems like the next logical fit.
Why He Fits: It's no secret that the Texans' secondary was decidedly awful in 2010. And as much as they need some help at outside linebacker, they would be fools to pass up Amukamara to draft a guy like Akeem Ayers. I'm making it sound like they'll have to settle for the Nebraska corner, but the reality is that they would welcome him with open arms.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Mike Pouncey, C, Florida
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Why He's Special: Mike Pouncey is Maurkice Pouncey's twin brother. Scientifically, same DNA = same player. That means Mike is a Pro Bowl-caliber lineman. In the immortal words of Peter Venkman, "Back off, man. I'm a scientist."
Why He Goes Here: Saw that one person tweeted that the Steelers have their eyes on a Pouncey-Pouncey reunion, but I don't think he'll last to them at No. 31.
Why He Fits: Unless they're serious about Joe Webb, the Vikings definitely need a quarterback. However, their offensive line is sorely in need of an upgrade. Pouncey projects as a center, but he could probably also cut it as a guard. Because of John Sullivan's relative struggles, the Vikings could use both.
13. Detroit Lions: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
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Why He's Special: The Bruins haven't been very good in the last couple of seasons, but their opponents were always wary of wear Ayers was on the field. This was usually problematic because of how Ayers was typically all over the place. He covers a lot of ground and is great both rushing the passer and dropping back in coverage. He's a perfect outside linebacker at the next level.
Why He Goes Here: Some would say that the Lions would be overreaching for Ayers right here. But they do need an outside linebacker, so they may as well take Ayers.
Why He Fits: Like I just said, the Lions do fill a need by drafting Ayers. And in adding him to the bucket of young talent they already have on defense, their future looks significantly brighter.
14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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Why He's Special: Jones is similar in size to Green but is definitely the more physical of the two wide receivers. He doesn't have Green's elite hands, but he still has a knack for making great catches. Also a very good blocker.
Why He Goes Here: Sorry for teasing you about Jones going in the Top 10, but the fact is he's not that good.
Why He Fits: Sam Bradford needs a playmaking wide receiver. That simple.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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Why He's Special: Ingram may not be the fastest son of a gun out there, but he has incredible vision and elite lateral quickness. He also has a Heisman Trophy in his collection, which is nice.
Why He Goes Here: Pretty weak crop of running backs in this year's class, but nobody is arguing that Ingram isn't the best of the bunch.
Why He Fits: Both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are gone, and Tony Sparano likes to run the ball. That's all there is to it.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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Why He's Special: Kerrigan led the country in tackles for loss in 2010, which is considerable given the fact that he was frequently double-teamed. He projects as perhaps a 4-3 defense end at the next level.
Why He Goes Here: Kerrigan is no longer rated as highly as some of the other defensive ends in the draft class, namely Cameron Jordan and Adrian Clayborn. But the fact that he's perfect for a 4-3 makes him worth drafting right here.
Why He Fits: The Jags had one of the worst pass rushes in the league in 2010. Their system is designed to let the line eat up blockers, thus freeing the linebackers to make plays. Kerrigan can certainly do that and is also the kind of player that could end up being elite before long.
17. New England Patriots: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
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Why He's Special: Jordan didn't quite live up to the hype at the Senior Bowl, but scouts still seem to love him anyway. This is largely thanks to his great array of moves, and the fact that he can fit into either a 3-4 or a 4-3 scheme.
Why He Goes Here: Just about every draft pundit in the business, including Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, have pegged Jordan as a perfect fit for the Patriots. I couldn't picture him falling to them before. But now that he has, I must say that it does seem to be a rather good fit.
Why He Fits: It's fitting that the Patriots would draft a defensive end with the pick that he got from the Raiders in exchange for Richard Seymour. Jordan will fit right in with Bill Belichick's 3-4, and he's got the kind of smarts that make him a great match for the system.
18. San Diego Chargers: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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Why He's Special: The last time I wrote about Castonzo, I knocked him for being too light at 290 pounds. Well, he weighed in at 311 pounds at the Combine, and he has scouts turning their heads. The fact that he was a four-year starter at BC can only help his stock.
Why He Goes Here: This might look a little early for Castonzo right now, but it sounds like he's doing everything he needs to in order to be the first tackle off the board.
Why He Fits: The Chargers could go any number of directions with their pick, but offensive line help is definitely a priority. Castonzo has shown that he can hold his own anywhere on the line, so they could definitely make worse choices.
19. New York Giants: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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Why He's Special: Solder is 6'8" and upwards of 310 pounds, but he ran surprisingly well for a guy his size at the combine. The thinking now is he definitely has the goods to be a great left tackle at the next level.
Why He Goes Here: If Solder isn't the first tackle off the board, he will likely be the second now that Tyron Smith had to pull out of the Combine with a knee injury.
Why He Fits: The Giants have some work to do as far as their offensive line. Drafting Solder would allow them to move David Diehl inside, which works out for everyone.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri
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Why He's Special: Smith is still very raw, and is still something of a 'tweener. But his 6'4" frame and freakish athleticism mean that he still has plenty of potential as an edge rusher.
Why He Goes Here: Because he is a 'tweener, Smith doesn't look as great next to the other defensive ends in this year's draft class. Still, he has tremendous upside, and is thus worth a top-20 pick.
Why He Fits: The Buccaneers need both a defensive end and an outside linebacker. But more than anything, they need a pass rusher, and Smith definitely fits the bill. Methinks if they groom him as a defensive end, this pick will definitely work out in the long run.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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Why He's Special: Carimi was the anchor for one of the best offensive lines in the country in 2010. He's not as highly regarded as Solder or Castonzo as far as technique is concerned, but we know for a fact that he can run block.
Why He Goes Here: Tryon Smith is probably the better all-around prospect at the tackle position, but Carimi's specialty in run blocking makes him a better fit for the Chiefs.
Why He Fits: Kansas City had the top rushing offense in the NFL in 2010, and they have a need at offensive tackle. Perfect fit.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Tryon Smith, OT, USC
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Why He's Special: Smith came into the Combine and measured out at 6'5" and 307 pounds, which means he's addressed the fact that he was seen to be a little light for an elite tackle. He could be the strongest of this year's crop, and is also very nimble on his feet. He tends to be underrated as run blocker, but the added weight should address that.
Why He Goes Here: Smith should probably go much higher, but knee injuries tend to scare people, no matter how minor they may be.
Why He Fits: The Colts need to bolster their line both for Peyton Manning's sake and for that of their running backs, who were notoriously banged up this past season. They could have themselves the steal of the draft if Smith falls to them.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
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Why He's Special: Jimmy Smith is moving up big boards all over at an alarming rate now that scouts are catching up with his game film. What they're seeing is a guy who's 6'2" and over 200 pounds and coverage skills that are already elite.
Why He Goes Here: I had Aaron Williams going to the Eagles up until now, but it sounds like Smith is a true diamond in the rough, so I'm game.
Why He Fits: The Eagles could stand to patch their offensive line, but they also need somebody who can take some pressure of Asante Samuel, especially now with Ellis Hobbs retiring. However, all of this will change if their interest in Nnamdi Asomugha pans out.
24. New Orleans Saints: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT/DE, Temple
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Why He's Special: Thanks to the fact that Wilkerson played for Temple, not many people noticed that he was one of the better penetrators in the country in 2010. He projects as the kind of guy who could play on the end of a 3-4 scheme and in the middle of a 4-3.
Why He Goes Here: Wilkerson's stock is definitely picking up steam, but I'm just not sure any team ahead of the Saints is going to use their pick on him. But that's probably fine with the Saints, who actually need him.
Why He Fits: Remember that play where Marshawn Lynch ran right through the Saints' defensive line and then made life hell for their secondary? Yeah, adding Wilkerson is a step in the right direction in terms of fixing that problem.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
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Why He's Special: Locker has all the physical tools to be a great quarterback at the next level, but what he really needs is accuracy and smarts. He said at the combine that he looks up to Aaron Rodgers, so at least his head is in the right place.
Why He Goes Here: Locker goes here because the Seahawks are the last team in the first round that really need a quarterback, and Locker is sure as hell a better option than Ryan Mallett after what happened on Saturday.
Why He Fits: Matt Hasselbeck is probably done in Seattle, and unless Pete Carroll, wants to hand the keys to Charlie Whitehurst, it's time to start anew. Call me crazy, but something about Locker joining forces with Carroll just seems to make sense.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
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Why He's Special: Moore led the nation with 10 interceptions in 2009, so it pretty much goes without saying that he's got a nose for making plays. Part of this has to do is how aggressive he is when the ball is in the air, which will help him at the next level.
Why He Goes Here: Moore is the only safety worth taking in the first round, but it would be a real shock if he went earlier than this.
Why He Fits: I think I'm the only idiot on earth that has Moore going to the Ravens, but my hope is that they will realize that he is the perfect heir apparent for Ed Reed, who of course isn't getting any younger. Nevertheless, given the number of free agents they have, don't be surprised if they go with a cornerback, a wide receiver or an offensive lineman.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
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Why He's Special: Rudolph doesn't have a reputation as the best blocker around, but he is a legit weapon in the passing game. This is largely thanks to his huge hands (bigger than 10 inches) and long arms. The thinking is that the blocking savvy will come in time.
Why He Goes Here: Jordan Cameron and Virgil Green were the stars of the combine on Saturday, but Rudolph is still the only tight end with a shot at cracking the first round.
Why He Fits: The Falcons have Tony Gonzalez for one more year, and most people think they'll take a wide receiver here. But in case you haven't figured it out, I have my own notions, and I'm thinking that drafting Rudolph for the future is the right thing to do. Give him a year under Gonzalez, and he could really blossom.
28. New England Patriots: Shane Vereen, RB, California
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Why He's Special: Vereen had to wait in Jahvid Best's shadow for much of his career at Cal, but it always seemed to me that he was the better all-around back. He runs hard, and he's not afraid of contact. He could also be the best pass-catching back in the draft, which can only help his stock
Why He Goes Here: I had Vereen going to the Patriots in my last mock, and no Patriots fans insulted my intelligence (which is unusual). This might seem a bit high for now, but I know Kiper likes him, and he does have the kind of skill set that can turn heads.
Why He Fits: Belichick would definitely get his share of Cal guys if he went with Vereen. But the fact of the matter is that Vereen is a great fit for his system. He's a great athlete, he's smart, he's got a chip on his shoulder and the fact that he's useful out of the backfield should be enough to convince the Pats that he's the right pick.
29. Chicago Bears: Benjamin Ijalana, OT, Villanova
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Why He's Special: Ijalana may be a little short at barely over 6'3," but he makes up for it with the chip he has on his shoulder. He's a true mauler, and he shines in pass protection. He also started every game of his career at Villanova.
Why He Goes Here: For the longest time, I thought Derek Sherrod would last as a first-round talent. But it appears his stock has all but evaporated, and the scramble for new first round blood has begun. Ijalana is the first in line for now, but don't be surprised if that changes.
Why He Fits: The Bears' offensive line gave up more sacks than anybody last season. And here we were getting miffed at Jay Cutler for getting hurt.
30. New York Jets: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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Why He's Special: Clayborn had a down year in 2010, and as a result, has seen his draft stock reach all sorts of highs and lows. A major explanation for last year's dropoff is that fact that he got a lot of extra attention, which likely won't be the case at the pro level. He still has good size and a good motor, so he deserves the benefit of the doubt.
Why He Goes Here: Clayborn could end up going higher. But if he falls to the Jets, he'd be a great fit as an end in their 3-4 system.
Why He Fits: The Jets are going to need to patch their defensive line one way or another this offseason. But with Shaun Ellis potentially going elsewhere, they might actually need Clayborn.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
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Why He's Special: Williams is another bigger, more physical corner in the same mold as Peterson and Smith. The difference is that Williams' coverage skills aren't all that sharp. The tradeoff is that he's very useful in run support.
Why He Goes Here: I had Williams going to the Eagles for a while there, but it looks like Smith's rise is going to knock him back a bit, maybe even out the first round altogether.
Why He Fits: The Steelers do need help on their offensive line, but there's just no way Mike Pouncey is going to last to them. But they also had their issues in pass coverage last season, so drafting a player like Williams is definitely a good way to go. The fact that he can help in run support makes him a good fit for the Steelers defense.
32. Green Bay Packers: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
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Why He's Special: At 6'3" and upwards of 250 pounds, Houston has the perfect build for an outside linebacker at the next level. He also specializes in rushing the passer, which makes him idea for a 3-4 scheme that likes to blitz.
Why He Goes Here: As good as Houston is rushing the passer, he does tend to get caught off-guard if a play changes direction. He also just doesn't have the kind of raw athleticism of Miller or Ayers.
Why He Fits: Once you notice all the injuries that Packers had last season, you realize they really don't need much help in any one area. They could use some help at the outside linebacker spot, however, and Houston sounds like a good fit for Dom Capers.
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