NFL Draft 2011: Top 10 Risks Amongst This Year's First Round Hopefuls
The 2011 NFL Draft is now less than two months away.
We still have no idea whether or not there will be a lockout by then, or if a new collective bargaining agreement will be reached. Free agency may take place later than usual, if it happens at all. With all of that in mind, players drafted could be a team's best shot at changing their team on the field in 2011.
When Andrew Luck decided to return to Stanford for his senior season, the question of who will get drafted number one overall began. Luck was a lock, but now we are finding out that the Carolina Panthers are still quite unclear as to who they will select with the first overall pick.
While some players seem to be consensus first day picks, there is never any such thing as a guarantee. Every draft pick is a huge risk, since team's have to sink so much money into an unknown commodity. That is why so many teams now look to trade out of the top ten and down in the draft instead of moving up the board.
This year is no different. Although these players may not be allowed to negotiate with their team or get on the field for a long time, 32 players will hear their names called on Day 1 of the 2011 NFL draft. Here is a look at the 10 biggest risks of players who could be drafted on April 28.
10. QB Jake Locker: Washington Huskies
1 of 10
This is a case of what could have been. Had Locker come out after his junior season at UW, he could have been the number one overall pick. He opted to return to school for his senior season, and he is no longer a sure thing to even be selected on the first day.
He may not even get selected on the second day.
Locker is very athletic with above average speed. But he needs to improve his accuracy and decision making on the field. No team will gamble by taking him as a top 10 pick anymore, but if he slides to the end of the first round, he may still be a bit too risky.
9. DL Marvin Austin: North Carolina Tar Heels
2 of 10
Another player who would have better served coming out a year earlier. Austin did not play at all last season for the Tar Heels due to issues regarding contacting agents. It was like an epidemic at North Carolina last year.
Austin is a big kid with extreme athleticism, and has the tools to be a first round pick and excellent player at the next level. But concerns about his maturity and work ethic may cause teams to pass on him until at the second round at the earliest.
His agility, speed and strength will get him noticed. While he may be too risky to be selected in the first round, he could be a steal in the second round, provided he can grow up quickly.
8. DL Phil Taylor: Baylor Bears
3 of 10
Taylor clearly has the talent to be selected within the first 15-20 picks, but he also brings some character issues with him to draft day.
First off, his stamina is not where it needs to be for Taylor to consistently compete in the NFL. He also has to account for his suspension and transfer from Penn State and his tendency to take off plays at crucial times. If it is strictly his stamina, then perhaps that can be improved at the next level.
But if it goes beyond that, then teams may look to draft a safer option.
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7. CB Brandon Harris: Miami Hurricanes
4 of 10
Harris may possess better speed than the other defensive backs rated higher than him on many boards. But while he does well in man coverage, he struggled against bigger receivers in college. If he cannot cover the big wideouts in college, then how can he handle NFL receivers, who seemingly get bigger by the year?
He shows very good instincts when lined up one-on-one, but he seems confused at times in zone coverage and can get caught out of position. Maybe that can be worked on, but it is still a question mark.
What Harris has going for him is what so many former Hurricanes have had working against them. Harris is a strong kid with a tireless work ethic who will give a team his all at the next level.
Still, he may be best suited as a second round pick.
6. CB Jimmy Smith: Colorado Buffaloes
5 of 10
Smith is tall, has strong arms and can cover the bigger receivers at the next level. He also has very good speed. Those attributes scream first round selection.
But he is another player who comes with off the field issues, and also has raised the eyebrows of many general managers, wondering why he had no interceptions last season.
It could be because quarterbacks did not throw his was quite as often in 2010, but it is still a question mark. Most likely, he will be a second round draft pick.
5. QB Ryan Mallett: Arkansas Razorbacks
6 of 10
Mallett has the size and skills to be a top five pick. But he still needs to develop his accuracy and consistency to play on Sundays.
Yet that is not the biggest knock against him. Mallett brings with him some character concerns, and some general managers question whether or not he is coachable at the next level.
He has played in some systems that give him an advantage, yet he still takes too many risks in big situations. That makes him a risk as a first round draftee.
4. DE Aldon Smith: Missouri Tigers
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Smith may have been better off had he returned for one more season. Because he declared early, he is very raw and may take a little longer to develop.
He has a chance to turn into a disruptive starting NFL defensive end if he can improve his strength and become more stout against the run. He is an effective pass rusher, but needs to do a much better job against the downhill running game.
Smith may make a great pro one day, but he is a bit of a project right now. That may cause some teams to drop him on their boards, although he does possess first round talent.
3. QB Blaine Gabbert: Missouri Tigers
8 of 10
Gabbert has the tools. Physically, he may be the best in his class. Yet even with that being said, Gabbert has a ways to go before he will be ready to start an NFL game and lead a team to the playoffs.
He played in a spread offense and will have to learn to take snaps under center and make progressions in the pocket. That is not always as easy of a transition as teams believe.
He has all of the skills necessary to be selected in the top five or ten picks, but his overall lack of consistency makes him a question mark.
Gabbert will be a first round draft pick. But he still carries a bit of a risk along with all of his abilities.
2. DT Nick Fairley: Auburn Tigers
9 of 10
Fairley may be the most talented player in the draft. Not just at his position or even on defense, but overall. He is that good.
But his maturity is a huge red flag for many teams with the top few picks. They also question his work ethic already, and feel it could decline even more once he gets all of that guaranteed money up front.
Fairley is flat out an absolute beast. He will most likely be chosen with the top three or four picks. But whichever team drafts Fairley will still be taking quite a gamble, regardless of his skill level.
1. QB Cam Newton: Auburn Tigers
10 of 10
This was a no-brainer. Teams have to hope that the same will not be said about Newton one day.
Everyone knows about his issues with the NCAA. Or should I say, his father's issues. This caused many to question Newton's character and off the field personality at Auburn and Florida. He has a long way to go before he proves he is ready to play at the next level.
Newton had an outstanding 2010 season, and was rightfully deserving of the Heisman Trophy. He throws a great deep ball and can escape the pocket and pick up a lot of yards on the ground.
But everyone knows about that as well. Newton will be a first round pick, and is now rumored to be shooting up many draft boards. But he will undoubtedly be the biggest risk in this year's draft, especially considering the position that he plays.
Unfortunately at times, he reminds me of a faster Jamarcus Russell. That is not a good thing.
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