NFL Combine 2011: Which Prospects Should Think Twice About Running the 40?
How fast can he run the 40 yard dash? It seems to be the biggest question involving skill players heading into the NFL combine. But players do have the choice of whether or not they want to take the risk of running the dash.
The 2011 Combine kicks off this week, so take a fresh breath of air as for the next five days we get to push aside stories about labor strikes and lockouts, and in return, commit our full attention to football.
It is no secret that this year's NFL Draft is loaded with talented at a number of positions. But as the combine gets under way here, the question that arises is: Why do some players make the decision to skip certain workouts? Does the choice to not partake in the 40 yard dash hurt their draft status, or help it?
For certain players, participating in the workout might show their weakness, and in return, hurt their momentum heading into April's draft. Still, it doesn't speak too highly about a guys self confidence if he skips the dash of fear he might not perform his best.
Let's take an inside look at this year's combine and dial in on some prospects that should think twice about running the 40 yard dash.
10. Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
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If you happened to watch this year's Senior Bowl, then you know how talented of a player Miami's Leonard Hankerson is.
He was Miami's best receiver this year, but many expected him to be a middle round pick coming out of college. After his Senior Bowl performance, Hankerson's draft status has risen and experts have him going in the second or third round in most mock drafts.
The big test for Hankerson will come this week at the combine and one major factor that scouts will be looking at with Hankerson is to see how fast he can run the 40 yard dash. He is known for making some big catches in traffic, but what about his speed?
The key where will be to see if he can run the 40 in under 4.5. Right now, experts project that he will run it closer to 4.6. As ridiculous as it seems, that one second could make the difference of Hankerson being a second round pick or being a fourth round pick.
9. Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
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Wait, why is a defensive tackle on this list you might ask? They don't have to be fast to play in the NFL?
The truth is that speed matters at every position in the NFL. Whether it be wide receiver, defensive tackle, or even kicker. Alright, alright, maybe not so much with kickers.
With that said, Oregon State's Stephen Paea looks to be one of the most physically dominant prospects in this year's NFL draft. Standing at 6'2", 295 pounds, he has great size for the position, but might that size affect his 40 time?
NFL Draft experts believe that Paea should run somewhere in the 4.9-5.1 time frame, which is considered to be pretty slow at any position. Other defensive tackles like Nick Fairley and Marcell Dareus, who are both expected to be top-10 picks, are expected to run the 40 in under five seconds.
This will be a make-or-break drill for Stephen Paea's draft status. Still expect him to go in the top three rounds regardless of the time he posts, but with a good time, he could be a late first round pick, with a sub-par time, he could be looking at the third round. Oh, how the harsh reality hurts Mr. Paea.
8. Tyler Sash, S, Iowa
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This appears to be one of the weaker safety classes in recent memory heading into this April's NFL Draft. With that said, the combine could very well play a huge role in the rise or fall of some of these safeties stock in 2011.
Tyler Sash is a guy who left after his junior season to enter the draft and is currently rated in the top-five by most draft experts at the safety position. But while other guys like Rahim Moore and DeAndre McDaniel possess elite speed for the position, Sash is on the slower end of the safety prospects.
Most people believe he will run somewhere in the 4.6 range, which is considered to be pretty slow for an NFL defensive back. Sash has good size and great instincts out on the field, but how will he test when he laces them up at this weeks combine? We shall wait and see.
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7. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
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Pitt's Jonathan Baldwin is one of the most intriguing prospects heading into this year's draft. Standing at 6'5", 225 pounds, Baldwin possess the ideal frame for someone who could be a big-play deep threat at the NFL level.
But the question here with Baldwin has to be, how fast is this guy going to be on the football field?
It really is pretty simple here. If Jonathan Baldwin can run a 40 under 4.5 seconds, then he will be a lock to be selected in either the first or second round. If he runs his 40 closer to 4.6 seconds or slower, he will likely be a third round pick, if that.
This is a prime example of a big time name who should think twice about running that 40 this week.
6. Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
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Nevis is a player who has the potential to be one of the next great defensive tackles in the NFL. He's a guy who is always around the ball and he has played against the best competition in college football throughout this career.
Now comes the part where I point out where the problem lies. The problem with Nevis is that his size is a huge issue at the next level. He currently weights about 290 pounds and his speed is not elite by any means.
Most draft experts expect him to run around a 4.9 in the NFL Combine, but really, anything under five seconds would be a victory for Nevis. If he can run as low as a 4.8, expect him to be a first round pick, otherwise, likely second or third round for this big guy.
Casey Matthews, LB, Oregon
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Here's a little something to think about when it comes to analyzing the pro potental of Oregon linebacker Casey Matthews.
Imagine if I handed you a player card of an NFL draft prospect. The guy projected at both middle and outside linebacker, he stood at 6"1, 230 pounds and ran a 4.76 40 yard dash. What would you say?
Probably that he sounds like he has pretty average size, not bad, not certainly not great. And the fact that he plays outside linebacker and runs a 4.76 40 yard dash certainly seems a little slow. I would say that this is a middle round guy.
Now, attach the last name Matthews to the card and realize that we are talking about the brother of NFL All-Pro linebacker Clay Matthews, Well, now he jumps up to an early round guy, maybe even second round.
People need to realize that just because Clay has had such a successful first couple of years in the NFL, does not necessarily mean that Casey will follow. The most glaring weakness with Casey's game is his speed. He is slow for someone who will likely play outside linebacker at the next level. If I were Casey and had that Matthews name attached to my back, I wouldn't even think twice when deciding to run the 40 yard dash.
4. Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
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We couldn't possibly complete this list without listing at least one of the cornerback prospects, a position in which speed matters so very much.
It's not easy to point out any of these guys, because they are all so fast. But, if there is one big name corner in this year's class who might have questionable speed, it has to be Virginia's Ras-I Dowling.
Dowling stands at 6'2", 205 pounds, which is great size for an NFL corner. He has shown during his time at Virginia, that he is not afraid to play press coverage and bring an aggressive style of play to the football field. But the one thing that may be a little concerning is his speed.
If Dowling can run in that 4.4-4.5 range, then he should secure himself at being a second round pick. But if he runs slower than a 4.5 and more into the 4.6 or above range, then Dowling's stock is really going to take a major hit, especially because there are so many other fast defensive backs in this draft class.
3. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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Adrian Clayborn is a guy who possess a great motor and that non-stop mentality that coaches love to see in a defensive player. He has been a menace to opposing Big Ten quarterbacks since he first took the field in an Iowa Hawkeyes uniform.
With that said, it is all but certain that Clayborn should be selected in the first round of this April's NFL Draft. The only question now is where? The top thing that might determine the answer to that question, lies in Clayborn's choice to run the 40 yard dash.
NFL Draft experts expect Clayborn to run the 40 somewhere in the 4.7-4.9 range. If he runs a 4.7 or less, and tests well in the other categories, expect Clayborn to lock himself into being a top-15 pick. But if Clayborn runs a 4.9 or even 5.0 second 40, he will likely be selected towards the end of the first round.
Maybe Mr. Clayborn should think twice about running the 40 at the combine. Right now, his stock is in the middle first round, which isn't too bad if you ask me.
2. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
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There might not be a single player entering this year's draft whose stock has supposedly been plummeting at as rapid of a pace as Mallett's has. And the question is why?
Ryan Mallett has a cannon of an arm, but there are questions about his ability to make smart decisions while moving out of the pocket. His decision making skills are questionable at best, but what might also hurt Mallett's draft stock is his lack of speed.
Being a pocket passer, Mallett doesn't necessarily need to possess elite speed. Guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees have made a living in the NFL sitting back and passing from the pocket with rarely scrambling and needing to show off their speed or lack there of.
But when looking at those guys, there is slow, like a Brady or Manning, and then there is really slow, possibly like Ryan Mallett.
Draft experts expect him to run an above 5 second 40, which is pretty eye-popping considering both Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, the two guys ahead of Mallett in the quarterback rankings, should both run under 4.7 40 times.
If I were Ryan Mallett, I would answer some questions, lift some weights, show off that cannon arm, and get the heck out of there before having to run that 40. His stock is already dropping, and that could just be the final determining factor that gets him out of the first round all together.
1. Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State
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If you play a position where the word "run" is in the name of that position, you better be pretty fast. The only problem here with Kansas State's Daniel Thomas, is that, well, he isn't.
Thomas was one of the elite running backs in all of college football this past season, and with a weak class of backs entering this April's NFL Draft, he is expected to be amongst the first ones chosen. But with a position where speed is so important, Thomas might be be best advised to skip running the 40, or hire a really good speed coach.
Thomas was timed at around 4.6 the last time he ran the 40, which is considered to be quite slow for an NFL level running back. Especially for a guy who hasn't played a down in the league yet.
In a league where speed is everything, Thomas is the No. 1 person in this week's NFL Combine that really needs to think twice about running the 40 yard dash.
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