2011 NFL Draft: 20 Prospects with the Highest Bust Potential
Every one of the prospects getting ready to compete at the 2011 NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis has something to prove and can benefit from a positive performance in many ways.
The microscope will focus in on each and every aspect of the players' games and psyches during the week, and the ones mentally capable of handling the grueling process are likely to be the biggest winners.
Looking down the majority of 2011 NFL Draft boards, we see a lot of familiar names.
Some prospects are considered "safe" picks, while the stock of others hinges on their potential at the next level—they are considered "risky" picks.
Ironically enough, with big expectations and tremendous potential, some of the highest ranked players are the ones with the highest bust potential.
The 2011 NFL Scouting Combine may clarify a few things with some of these players, but it could also bring about a whole new level of expectation as well.
Here is a look at the 20 prospects with the highest potential to bust in the NFL.
20. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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Draft Projection
Early-to-mid-first round
Busted
Jones has dropped passes in the past and, while he is still developing as a route runner, he may not be polished enough in his separation skills to consistently get open at the next level.
His big, athletic frame can cause mismatches against smaller corners, but he needs to consistently catch the ball away from his body and create separation to succeed in the NFL.
Forecast
The underclassman receiver will last no longer than No. 14 overall—where the St. Louis Rams wait, desperately needing a weapon for Sam Bradford—but he could be selected even higher.
Bust Potential
Five out of 10
19. Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
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Draft Projection
Late-second-to-third round
Busted
Austin missed the entire 2010 season for violating NCAA policy. He has major maturity issues, is an inconsistent performer and his production does not always match his athletic ability.
He could be a serious player if he ever got his head right, but that still remains to be seen.
Forecast
Teams with a solid veteran presence and strong coaching staff could see a serious diamond in the rough with Austin.
He is well-known, and could potentially have been a high first-round pick if he played this season, but now he will have to explain and convince NFL teams he is going to be a committed player at the next level.
Bust Potential
Seven out of 10 (This would be higher if he graded out higher, but teams may expect him to fail.)
18. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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Draft Projection
Mid-to-late-first round
Busted
Clayborn is a highly regarded player that did not play up to expectations in 2010. He is a high-motor guy with good natural ability, brute strength and versatility, but he does not excel at anything.
Clayborn has a good combination of size and athleticism, but does not have the type of upside akin to a lot of his peers at the position.
Forecast
Clayborn is one of many defensive-end prospects that will find a home in the mid-to-late first round.
I like him as an all-around player and think he could be a contributor in the right system, even if he does not get a ton of sacks.
Bust Potential
Five out of 10
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17. Cameron Jordan, DE, California
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Draft Projection
Mid-first round
Busted
Jordan is a big, powerful defensive-line prospect that really impressed during the season and into the Senior Bowl practices.
He looked unstoppable at times in practice, but was hardly as effective in the game, and is not a true threat off the edge with speed or pass-rush moves.
Forecast
Jordan carries lofty expectations that may have made him the dreaded "overrated-underrated" prospect.
He is a solid player, but may not be a game-changer, and if he is drafted too high, he may not live up to expectations.
Bust Potential
Six out of 10
16. Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
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Draft Projection
Mid-to-late-first round
Busted
Liuget is a fast-rising prospect that may have gotten too much hype too soon in the process.
He's got good instincts and quickness inside, but was not overly productive and did not dominate his opposition.
Forecast
He's a good player and solid prospect, but his production may never match his projected draft status.
Bust Potential
Six out of 10
15. Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech
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Draft Projection
Late-first-to-second round
Busted
Williams had a disappointing 2010 season in which he battled injuries and was not nearly as productive as in 2009.
He is a tough runner that can play inside the tackles but does not have breakaway speed. He can be productive in the passing game, but is not as consistent as you would like, and may not project as a true every-down back.
Forecast
Williams' stock is a heavily debated topic and he could wind up waiting a bit longer than he'd like to hear his name called.
The lack of running back-needy teams in the first round does not help him much, and his success could depend on the team that drafts him.
Bust Potential
Six out of 10
14. Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
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Draft Projection
Late-first-to-early-second round
Busted
This big, surprisingly nimble nose-tackle prospect can take care of blockers and allow his teammates to make plays.
His weight and conditioning will be a huge issue for the team that drafts him, especially if the lockout lasts beyond May. Taylor must keep his weight under control if he wants to be successful.
If he gets too heavy or out of shape, he may never return to form.
Forecast
Taylor fits best in a 3-4 defense, but could find himself a home on almost any defensive front.
He's the No. 1 nose-tackle prospect in the 2011 NFL Draft, but is one of the primary candidates to be hurt by a lack of practice and workout time.
Bust Potential
Eight out of 10
13. Allen Bailey, DE, Miami
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Draft Projection
Second round
Busted
Bailey is an extremely athletic prospect that will likely test through the roof in Indianapolis, but he is simply not ready to contribute yet.
He is so raw in almost every area of the game that his versatility could almost scare some off because he has no true positional home yet.
He has all the potential in the world, but we have seen this type of scenario before.
Forecast
This will depend primarily on how high he is drafted. Bailey is certainly a physically gifted player, but if he is over-drafted, it will not help his cause as a future pro.
He will need a good amount of coaching before he can contribute effectively, and the team that drafts him should know that.
Bust Potential
Seven out of 10
12. Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia
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Draft Projection
Late-first-to-early-second round
Busted
Houston is a true positional "tweener" that will likely face a tough transition to a full-time linebacker position.
He is an accomplished player when getting after the quarterback, and although he worked in coverage more this season, he still has a ways to go to be effective in that area.
Forecast
Houston will be looked upon as a potential game-changing type rush-linebacker, but will have some work to do before he can contribute consistently.
He could be used situationally to start, and would fit best on a team that will give him time to learn. If he does not grasp the position, he could be in for trouble.
Bust Potential
Seven out of 10
11. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
10 of 20
Draft Projection
Early-to-mid-first round
Busted
Gabbert was the default No. 1 quarterback coming off the end of the 2010 season, but truly never "wowed" me with anything, especially his ability (or lack thereof) to throw touchdowns.
Gabbert is a good looking quarterback prospect with the size, arm and athleticism to succeed, but he does not strike me as a playmaker.
Forecast
Gabbert will naturally be over-drafted because all the quarterbacks in the 2011 NFL Draft class have question marks, and there are too many quarterback-needy teams for him to slide too far.
He caught a really high grade coming out, but that may have been a bit premature, and as time goes on, I think we will see some people come down on him more and more.
Bust Potential
Six out of 10 (I am not too high on him to begin with and do not expect him to be elite.)
10. Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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Draft Projection
Mid-to-late-first round
Busted
With impressive size and athleticism to boot, Solder also got some recognition by default as part of a tackle class that is short on elite prospects.
He has a ton of potential and could be the best tackle of this class in the future, but he also has the lowest floor as well.
He is still very raw for the position, needs to add bulk and is hardly an unbeatable prospect on the edge.
Forecast
Solder falls slightly in the middle of my tackle rankings, and will be best suited on a team that gives him time to develop his skills completely.
If he is rushed, he may develop some bad habits and may never truly succeed.
Bust Potential
Seven out of 10
9. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
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Draft Projection
First-to-second round
Busted
We simply do not know what to expect from Mallett in the future.
He has an incredible arm, remarkable size and potential to excel as a quarterback, but he could also allow his deficiencies to get the best of him.
He forces the ball at times, needs a tremendous amount of work on his pocket presence and is as mobile as Kurt Warner was as a New York Giant.
Forecast
The No. 4 quarterback on my board could fall to the second round, but will likely have a team come back in on day one to add him late in the first round.
He's not ready to contribute right away, but if a team is truly patient and lets him develop, he could be a star.
Bust Potential
Eight out of 10
8. Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue
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Draft Projection
Mid-to-late-first round
Busted
The biggest issue with Kerrigan is his size and athleticism. He is too small to play on the line in the NFL and he is merely an average-to-below-average athlete.
He has a relentless motor and knows how to play with leverage, but he is simply not the physical force that we normally see on the edge.
Forecast
He is an extremely hard worker and will likely find a home at a place that values that above all else. His lack of bulk and overall athleticism could limit him to a situational role, but he will not rest until he is making plays on the field.
The bust factor diminishes the longer he lasts on the board, but that may not be very long at all.
Bust Potential
Eight out of 10
7. Tyron Smith, OT, USC
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Draft Projection
Mid-to-late-first round
Busted
Smith is a potential left-tackle prospect that has never spent time at the position.
He has great athleticism but still needs to get stronger, and his lack of experience could damage his self-confidence if he falters early.
Smith needs to get stronger and also needs a patient team willing to mold him into a player.
Forecast
He has franchise-left tackle ability, but his bust potential will hinge on how high he is selected.
If a team is patient and gives him a chance, he could certainly succeed, but he could also be one of the biggest busts in the 2011 NFL Draft if selected too high.
Bust Potential
Eight out of 10
6. Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri
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Draft Projection
First round
Busted
Top-notch athletic ability and long frames always create plenty of hype on players; Smith is no different.
While he has a ton of potential, he is not nearly as physical as I would like to see in a pass-rush end, and his skills are still very raw.
Forecast
Smith is easily one of the top candidates to be over-drafted due to elite physical tools and potential.
Unfortunately, we have have seen this many times before at the DE/OLB position.
Bust Potential
Eight out of 10
5. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
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Draft Projection
Early-first round
Busted
Dareus has some maturity issues that may need to be worked out, and while he has remarkable athleticism for a man his size, he has some issues with conditioning and must watch his weight.
He was used heavily in a rotation at Alabama, and must prove he is capable of contributing throughout the entire game at the next level.
Forecast
Dareus has the ability to be an elite defensive lineman in the NFL and will likely be taken in the Top 10.
If he is going to be successful, he is going to have to commit to the game.
Bust Potential
Eight out of 10
4. Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, UNC
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Draft Projection
Early-first round
Busted
Quinn missed the entire 2010 season after violating NCAA policy, and while his 2009 was very solid, we cannot be sure what exactly he will be able to offer.
He is still very young and developing, and teams must know that he will take a bit of time to truly come into his own.
Forecast
The UNC coaching staff has done right by the kid and vouched for him to any team that has asked about him.
His considerable upside and natural pass-rush ability will be hard to pass up in the Top 10. The biggest issue with him will be if he can become a great player early.
Bust Potential
Eight out of 10, simply because he is a candidate to be drafted so high.
3. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
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Draft Projection
Late-first-to-early-second round
Busted
Baldwin was a complete underachiever in 2010 despite his physical tools, and he might as well have sat on the bench.
His quarterback was hardly the picture of production and accuracy, but a player with as much talent as Baldwin needs to win more battles when given the opportunity.
His lack of dedication and love for the game could also be causes for concern.
Forecast
Baldwin will likely dominate at the 2011 NFL Scouting Combine—he is rumored to run the 40-yard dash in the 4.3-second range and is an impressive physical specimen.
He could actually be the No. 3 receiver off the board.
Bust Potential
Nine out of 10, because he has tremendous physical tools and a fair shot at doing absolutely nothing with them.
2. Jake Locker, QB, Washington
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Draft Projection
First-to-second round
Busted
Serious accuracy concerns have dominated all the talk of Jake Locker prior to the 2011 NFL Draft, and, unfortunately, the criticism may be legitimate.
He's an elite physical prospect with all the intangibles, but for some reason, he just cannot put it all together.
Forecast
I am still very high on him and believe he has a chance to go as high as No. 10. I feel he is, and will be, a better player than Gabbert.
As they say, it only takes one to fall in love with him, and while his stock continues to fall, I think someone is going to be very excited about him when all is said and done.
Bust Potential
Nine out of 10; he may never get it.
1. Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
20 of 20
Draft Projection
Early-first round
Busted
Before everyone gets all bent out of shape thinking I am going to bash Cam Newton, understand that he's No. 1 here simply because his upside is so tremendously high. Newton is the most physically gifted player in the 2011 NFL Draft class and has the potential to be the very best player it has to offer.
But, he could also completely flame out if he's put in the wrong situation.
Forecast
Newton will continue to rise up boards as we get closer to the 2011 NFL Draft, and it would not shock me to see him go No. 1 overall (if Carolina moves out), or at least in the Top three.
Bust Potential
Nine out of 10
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