Minnesota Vikings: Don't Mock Me, Who Will The Vikings Take in The 1st Round?

For the Minnesota Vikings, there are as many first-round draft predictions as there are holes in their free-agent rich roster.

A partial list of Vikings' free agents—highlighted by wide receiver Sidney Rice on the offensive side and linebacker Chad Greenway on the defense—includes defensive linemen Pat Williams, Ray Edwards and Brian Robison; defensive backs Lito Shepard, Eric Frampton, Frank Walker and Husain Abdullah; linebacker Ben Leber; wide receivers Greg Lewis, Hank Baskett and Jaymar Johnson; offensive lineman Ryan Cook; quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and field goal kicker Ryan Longwell.

The Vikings have needs at just about every position, with quarterback being the most glaring.

Of the three quarterbacks from 2010, Brett Favre has retired (again), Joe Webb may be transitioned to wide receiver, and the only way Tarvaris Jackson will remain in the lineup is as a backup.

Second to quarterback, the wide receiver corp and the defensive backfield have equal needs.

Add Anthony Herrera and Steve Hutchinson's injuries to the potential free agent departures, and both the offensive and defensive lines could use reinforcement.  

Speculation runs wild this time of year, and everyone has a mock draft predicting the selections of each team. Mel Kiper, Jr. has made a career of speculating the NFL draft almost year round for ESPN.

Most of these individuals only attempt to speculate the first round, with some venturing into the second. There were even a couple that attempted to breakdown the entire seven rounds of the NFL Draft.

To me, this is an exercise in futility.

Attempting to predict the NFL draft is like picking numbers for the Powerball Lottery—but at one in 195 million, the odds of winning the Powerball are higher and the payouts are certainly better.

I conducted a simple analysis of 32 mock drafts that I found across the Internet. Some were very detailed—including the player's collegiate statistics—while others only listed the player's name.

There were 14 different players predicted to be taken by the Minnesota Vikings with the 12th pick in the 2011 NFL draft.

Here are the list of predictions from the least chosen to the most.

Players mentioned in only one mock draft:

Jurrell Casey—defensive tackle, University of Southern California. Casey could be a potential replacement for Pat Williams at nose tackle. He is more than likely a high second-round selection. I could see the Vikings trading down and selecting him as a late first-round pick. 

Anthony Castonzo—offensive tackle, Boston College. Castonzo is projected to go in the first round. However, if the Vikings are going to take an offensive lineman in the first round I would prefer they would  trade down in the draft and gain an additional pick later. 

Blaine Gabbert—quarterback, University of Missouri. The odds of Gabbert being around  for the 12th pick are slim.

Ryan Kerrigan—defensive end, Purdue University. I know it's irrational, but the last two Big Ten defensive lineman the Vikings drafted in the first round just didn't work out. Erasmus James—drafted out of Wisconsin in 2005—only lasted three seasons with the Vikings, and let's not forget the disaster that was Dimitrius Underwood, selected Michigan State in 1999. Underwood would walk away from the Vikings after one day of training camp. 

Stephen Paea—defensive tackle, Oregon State University. At 6-1 and 295 pounds, Paea is another candidate to replace Pat Williams. On at least one board he was listed as the fourth best defensive tackle in the draft. 

Mike Pouncey—center, University of Florida. Although the Vikings need help on offense, I don't see them selecting Pouncey. Todd McShay from ESPN projects Pouncey as a second-round pick.

These players were predicted on two mock drafts:

Cameron Jordon—defensive end, University of California. This is a pick I can see the Vikings making if unable to reach an agreement with Edwards, provided he is still around for the 12th pick.  

Ryan Mallet—quarterback, University of Arkansas. This really depends on which quarterbacks are available and what the Vikings plans are for 2011. I'm just not sure he is good enough to risk selecting in the first round pick. I like this selection better as a second round pick. According to one site, they project Mallet as the fifth best quarterback in the draft and being selected in the second or third round.

Tyron Smith—offensive tackle, University of Southern California. Like Castonzo, he would be a great addition to the offensive line. But, the same argument holds.

The following were included in three mock drafts as the Vikings first-round pick:

Adrian Clayborne—defensive end, University of Iowa. Although a worthy choice, see Ryan Kerrigan above.

Jake Locker—quarterback, University of Washington. I like this pick, but the Vikings might have to trade up to nab him.

Aldon Smith—linebacker, University of Missouri. Is he a linebacker or a defensive end? Would he be better suited in a 3-4 defense? At 6-5 and 260 pounds, he is about the same size as Ray Edwards. However, most projections have him being selected before the Vikings get a shot.

The second most popular prediction on four drafts:

Nate Solder—offensive tackle, University of Colorado. This would be another solid addition to the offensive line, but I just don't like it as the 12th pick.

The most popular prediction that showed up on seven mock drafts:

Cam Newton—quarterback, University of Auburn. Almost 25 percent of the drafts I looked at have the Vikings selecting the Heisman Trophy winner. Last season he threw 30 touchdown passes,  rushed for another 20 and even caught a touchdown pass for a total of 51 touchdowns.

Even so, I don't like this pick; running quarterbacks are just not as successful as those who can pass. Newton is projected to be anywhere from the first pick overall to as low as a third rounder.

Surprisingly, none of the mock drafts had the Vikings selecting a defensive back or wide receiver with their first pick in the draft. 

So, who will the Vikings select with their first-round draft choice on Thursday, April 28?

Well, that depends strongly on what happens between now and then. Without a collective bargaining agreement in place for next season, the team has not moved to sign any of their free agents. Without knowing the financial landscape that will shape next season it is difficult to know where the biggest needs the team will have.

If the Vikings re-sign two or three of their big free agents like Rice, Edwards and Greenway they may just trade down in the draft to replace the third round pick they gave to New England for Randy Moss.

The other situation that bears keeping an eye on is where Tennessee Titan quarterback Vince Young ends up. With his former quarterback coach now a part of Leslie Frazier's coaching there is a possibility he could end up in purple, making the decision to trade down easier.

My prediction is that the Vikings will select a player with their first pick in the 2011 NFL draft—just where that pick will end up and who they will draft is anyone's  guess.