2011 NFL Mock Draft: Miami Dolphins Mock Draft Survivor Version 1.0

I'll admit it. I am not a big fan of mock drafts, especially in February before athletes work out and interview at the Combine and various pro days.

But my biggest problem with mocks is that they seem so arbitrary. The logic used to legitimize selections often baffles the mind. Also, I have noticed the tendency of certain "mockers" to earmark a player to a certain team just because it's convenient or he or she likes that particular player.

So, I've come up with a different method to project the Miami Dolphins' first round draft pick (and only that pick).

Instead of deciding who Miami is likely to pick, and assuming they do not trade out of the #15 spot, I will eliminate positions and more importantly players from consideration on the following slides until I wind up with one remaining player left standing. It may not be the most scientific approach but it should have some value in analyzing players and be entertaining if nothing else.

Call it Mock Draft Survivor 1.0

1. Quarterback

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TEMPE, AZ - DECEMBER 28: Quarterback Blaine Gabbert #11 of the Missouri Tigers during the Insight Bowl against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Sun Devil Stadium on December 28, 2010 in Tempe, Arizona. The Hawkeyes defeated the Tigers 27-24. (Photo by Christian P

It's estimated that approximately nine of the top 12 teams in the draft need a quarterback to some degree. At this point, only two quarterbacks merit that kind of elite consideration right now—Missouri's Blaine Gabbert and Auburn's Cam Newton. 

I have an extremely hard time believing that the Bills (No. 3 overall), Arizona (No. 5), San Francisco (No. 7) or Washington (No. 10) will pass on taking a quarterback if one is available. Only Buffalo, with Ryan Fitzpatrick, appears to have a serviceable option right now. Translation: No Gabbert or Newton for Miami.

The latest buzz from scouting services is that no other quarterback will even merit a first round selection.

Combine that with the reality that Dolphin GM Jeff Ireland and Coach Tony Sparano don't have the time, or possibly even the job security to break in a first round signal-caller, and the quarterback position just got voted off my mock draft survivor island. 

2. Defensive Line

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TUSCALOOSA, AL - OCTOBER 16: Marcell Dareus #57 of the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Ole Miss Rebels at Bryant-Denny Stadium on October 16, 2010 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Another estimate I've heard recently is that approximately 24 of the 32 first round selections will come on defense.

That's not exactly what many Dolphin fans want to hear about given the team's anemic offense, but one place that Miami would appear to be set is on the defensive line, especially at the end position. Most of the draft's best prospects are defensive linemen who will be gone by pick 15 and/or don't fit in the team's 3-4 defense anyway.

Forget defensive end Da'Quan Bowers of Clemson and defensive tackles Nick Fairley of Auburn and  Marcell Dareus of Alabama.

They never made it to our survivor island in the first place as they will be off the board in the first few picks (Fairley and Dareus have been rumored to slide a little bit but certainly not past the 10th pick overall).

North Carolina defensive end Robert Quinn is an interesting prospect, but let me hold off on him because I think the Dolphins would view this player as a 3-4 outside linebacker.

Wisconsin's J.J. Wyatt and California's Cameron Jordan would seem to have what it takes to be 3-4 ends, but I just can't see Miami adding either to an already stocked rotation of Randy Starks, Kendall Langford, last year's first round pick in Jared Odrick, Philip Merling and maybe even Tony McDaniel (a free agent).

3. Running Back

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TUSCALOOSA, AL - NOVEMBER 26: Mark Ingram #22 of the Alabama Crimson Tide rushes for a touchdown against the Auburn Tigers at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 26, 2010 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

It appears that about 90 percent of draft experts have the Dolphins drafting the "one sure first round running back" in Alabama's Mark Ingram, otherwise referred to in scouting circles as "Emmitt Smith Jr."

Maybe I am naïve but I just don't see it. "It" being Ingram as the next Emmitt Smith or the Dolphins selecting him. 

First of all, Ingram is a physical, pounding running back, which doesn't fit perfectly with Miami's promise to open up the offense. He isn't going to break off the 60-yard touchdown run.

Be clear that Ingram is not an explosive runner and that is the only type of running back that I believe the Dolphins would consider in Round 1. 

I can see Miami taking a couple of running backs in this draft, but in later rounds and at least one with breakaway speed.

I would personally advocate, and I think many NFL teams would agree, on not drafting a first round running back on general principle.

Running backs are being quickly phased out of today's pass-happy league and successful ones can be found in the later stages of the draft.

A back would have to have the dynamic ability of an Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson for me to even consider drafting him in the first 32 picks. Running backs have short shelf lives and if the rest of your team is not close to being Super Bowl worthy, you are wasting that player's best years.

4. Tight End

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SOUTH BEND, IN - OCTOBER 03: Kyle Rudolph #9 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish runs onto the field with teammates before a game against the Washington Huskies on October 3, 2009 at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame defeated Washington 3

There is only one tight end with a possible first round grade and that's Notre Dame's Kyle Rudolph.

He has NO shot of being in the top 15 players selected and beyond that, I am not convinced he brings the right mix to what Miami needs in a tight end, which is a guy who can stretch the field a little.

Rudolph is more of a blocker and a short-to-intermediate route guy. Now, if Miami had a second round pick or Rudolph made it to the third round, we might have to revisit the Golden Domer, but for now the tribe has spoken and Rudolph has to go.

5. Secondary

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LINCOLN, NE - NOVEMBER 26: Prince Amukamara #21 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers misses a chance at an interception from Scotty McKnight #21 of the Colorado Buffaloes during the second half of their game at Memorial Stadium on November 26, 2010 in Lincoln, Neb

The secondary position has two quality athletes to consider in LSU's Patrick Peterson and Nebraska's Prince Amukamara.

While I'd place heavy odds on Peterson being a safety at the NFL level (and therefore less desirable to NFL teams) he is also the most ready to play in the league and would only last long enough for Miami's selection in pipe dreams.

Amukamara's prospects are a much tougher nut to crack.

He has been slipping in several mocks because he reportedly lacks recovery speed. His 40-time at the combine will be essential in putting that notion to rest. Amukamara, much like Peterson, is a bigger corner and there will be those that think he might be best served by a move to safety.

Surprisingly, Amukamara is one of the harder prospects for me to kick of Miami's Survivor Island. Let me start by saying that I think he will go before Miami selects, although I am not completed convinced of that and I think he might be truly the best player left on the board.

I also think he should be drafted as a cornerback, where Miami already has a decent starting tandem and some depth. If Miami made the selection, I would consider moving either Vontae Davis or Sean Smith, but without a Collective Bargaining Agreement you can't trade players, so for now that point is moot.

If you commit to moving Amukamara to safety and it doesn't work out, I think its very hard to then ask him to play corner—just ask former Dolphin Jason Allen.

With some hesitation, I am removing Amukamara from consideration.

6. The Offensive Line

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CHESTNUT HILL, MA - OCTOBER 03: Anthony Castonzo #74 of the Boston College Eagles congratulates teammate Montel Harris #2 after Harris scored a touchdown in the first quarter against the Florida State Seminoles on October 3, 2009 at Alumni Stadium in Che

There is not an elite offensive lineman prospect in the draft. Colorado left tackle Nate Solder was seen as the best of a weak class early in the draft process.

You never want to hear an offensive lineman described as "stiff," but that term keeps coming up again and again for this converted tight end. Aren't converted tight ends supposed to be athletic?

Then, I noticed that draft guru Mike Mayock had replaced Solder with Boston College's Anthony Castonzo as the draft's best tackle.

I am not bold enough to say that Mayock is wrong, but if Castonzo is the best OL in the draft, then defenses are licking their proverbial chops. 

Pop in the Senior Bowl tape and watch Castonzo get beat repeatedly at guard (he supposed to be a tackle) by less-than-elite pass rushers using simple techniques such as the prehistoric bull rush. 

Miami needs interior line help or an upgrade over Vernon Carey. Bottom line: That won't happen at pick 15.

7. Wide Receivers

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ORLANDO, FL - JANUARY 01: Julio Jones #8 of the Alabama Crimson Tide rushes for a touchdown during the Capitol One Bowl against the Michigan State Spartans at the Florida Citrus Bowl on January 1, 2011 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty I

There are two receivers that figure to be selected in the draft's first 15-20 picks. 

Georgia WR A.J. Green will be the first receiver off the board and shouldn't fall beyond pick five.  Personally, I feel that Green is overrated, but I'll admit it's hard to say that about a 6'4", 225-pound receiver with very good production (especially after being suspended for the team's first four games). 

However, the image of Green that stays with me is the guy who had alligator arms in the Bulldogs' 10-6 Liberty Bowl loss to the University of Central Florida this past season.

Alabama's Julio Jones is a far more likely option to be available at Miami's spot. Despite having big play ability, his inconsistent hands are a concern. The problem with sending him to South Beach? He is not the speedy option the Dolphins are currently missing from their offense.

In fact, Jones seems to resemble Brandon Marshall, minus the baggage perhaps. Simply put, there aren't enough balls in the Dolphins' offense for that to work.

Boise State's Titus Young is a blazer but at 5'9" it would be irresponsible to draft him as high as 15. 

8. Linebacker

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KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 27: Quarterback Jordan Webb #2 of the Kansas Jayhawks is sacked by Aldon Smith #85 of the Missouri Tigers during the game on November 27, 2010 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

By now, you may have realized that I think Miami is going to take a linebacker in this draft if they stay at pick 15.

I realize this won't be popular with the masses, but I very much believe Miami has to go with the best available athlete and a player that still fits its offensive and defensive philosophy and schemes. 

In review, I have kicked the following players off our mock draft survivor island because along with other reasons, they will be off the board before Miami picks: Patrick Peterson, Da 'Quan Bowers, Nick Fairley, Cam Newton, A.J. Green, Marcell Dareus, Blaine Gabbert, Prince Amukamara.

Julio Jones is probably off the board too. That means that four other players would have to be selected before Miami picks.

I believe that defensive linemen with the size and other physical attributes to play end or defensive tackle are the new in vogue value in the draft. Therefore, I'll suggest that either Cameron Jordan or J.J. Wyatt (and perhaps both) slips into the top 15. I will also bet that a team in the top 15 will need an offensive lineman much worse than Miami and reaches to select one.

That leaves us with one or two more selections before Miami picks.

There are no inside linebackers rated high enough for the Dolphins to select.

However, there are three outside linebackers that could fit very well in Miami's attack and allow Koa Misi to shift inside and replace Channing Crowder, who the team simply can't rely on at this point.

Texas A&M's Von Miller is arguably the most highly rated outside linebacker and his acumen in rushing the passer would provide a welcome complement to emerging superstar Cameron Wake—except that Miller is one more player who appears to be a lock for the top 10 overall. He is also a little light for my liking and I have a hard time seeing him line up over the tackle in Miami's 3-4.

So, in my mind it comes down to two hybrid players, DE/OLB Robert Quinn of North Carolina and DE/OLB Aldon Smith of Missouri.

Here is what Mayock says about both players:

Of Quinn, "As the draft gets closer you're going to see (Robert) Quinn get higher and higher...He's a special, special athlete."

Of Smith, "He's a kid that's too explosive, too fast to not go in the first round."

Here's the case for Quinn: Despite being 6'5", 270 pounds, he is athletic enough to be a 3-4 outside linebacker. He may be available to Miami only for two reasons. First, there is a character concern after he was declared permanently ineligible before his senior season with the Tar Heels for accepting extra benefits from agents. So, there is a character concern. One more issue to consider is if there is an extended collective bargaining impasse and lockout, Quinn could conceivably go two years without playing a down of football.

Here's the case for Smith: As a redshirt freshman, Smith rang up 11.5 sacks. He then started off 2010 hot with three sacks before a hamstring injury registered the rest of his year a disappointment. He is also about 6'5" and comes in at about 260 pounds, but he has freakishly long arms and when they measure this kid's wingspan, it should be off the charts.

That can only help Smith knock down passes and assist him in developing more pass-rushing moves as he is a relative novice with only two collegiate seasons of playing time. In short, Smith is dripping with the dreaded "P" word—potential. There are questions about his run-stopping ability in what was a pass-oriented conference.

Conclusion: Quinn really does project equally well as a 4-3 end and a 3-4 outside linebacker which makes me think he won't be off many teams' draft boards, despite character concerns. Despite the fact that I see Smith shooting up draft boards, I see him as a pass-rushing 3-4 outside linebacker and his lack of production in 2010 might affect his slotting on draft day.

Verdict: The winner of Mock Draft Survivor 1.0 is...

Aldon Smith!