NFL Draft: What Would Have Happened If the 49ers Drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005

With the first pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers selected Alex Smith. Smith has been the subject of criticism, having failed to take the 49ers to the playoffs or a winning season in his first six years.

To Smith's credit, he was originally surrounded by few weapons, a porous offensive line and has had a new offense virtually every year. There has been no shortage of adversity in Smith's career, but he has shown little resistance against the challenges that have been presented to him.

With the quarterback position comes a tremendous amount of pressure. When a quarterback fails, he is the target of blame and finger pointing. Conversely, no other position gets wins tied to their worth as an athlete.

Nobody ever pointed at Steven Jackson as the reason the Rams were losing, did they?

Aaron Rodgers is coming off of a Super Bowl win in which he obtained MVP honors. If 49ers fans didn't think Rodgers was the better option in the 2005 draft, they probably do now.

So what would have happened if Rodgers did indeed go to the 49ers? Let's investigate.

From the Packers perspective, the 49ers selecting Smith worked out tremendously. Rodgers got to sit and learn under Favre and when it was time for Rodgers to step into the starting role, he did so effortlessly. If the 49ers would have drafted Rodgers, it would not necessarily guarantee the Packers would have taken Smith, even if he were available at 24.

For the purposes of this article, let's say Smith goes to Green Bay at 24. Smith would have seen Mike McCarthy take over the head coaching job in 2006 and no coaching changes from there on out, assuming Smith's play did not cost McCarthy his job.

It is unclear whether or not Smith would have developed into the starting role the way Rodgers did. Smith has been hindered by injuries he may not have encountered in Green Bay, but his decision making and moxie don't hold a candle to Rodgers'.

If Favre had to stay an extra year, it would be year five before Smith even got an opportunity to play. Quarterbacks drafted in the first round don't usually stand for that. Ted Thompson probably would have encouraged Favre to leave Green Bay after Smith's third year, just like Rodgers.

The problem is that a direct swap of Smith and Rodgers does not mean Smith would follow the same fate and career. Certainly, he would have better weapons and a more solid line, but it is hard to imagine Smith hoisting a Lombardi Trophy at the end of Super Bowl XLV, as Rodgers did.

Even if Green Bay had been the landing place of Smith, he would likely be a slightly above average quarterback at best. The Packers couldn't have won the Super Bowl with slightly above average quarterback play. Smith may have seen the playoffs, but it is highly unlikely that he would have seen a Super Bowl in Green Bay, as Rodgers already has.

Here is where it gets interesting. What would have happened if Rodgers had gone to San Francisco? For starters, we have to assume the injuries and revolving door at OC remain consistent. He would be smacked with all of the adversity that Smith was throughout his career.

Rodgers showed on his Super Bowl run that he handles adversity incredibly well. When everything fell apart in Green Bay, Rodgers was always there to hold it together. If he had that responsibility in his early years, it is unclear how he would have responded.

What is clear is that even if Rodgers was injured and everything was in disarray around him for his entire six year stay in San Francisco, he certainly wouldn't have had a problem fighting off Troy Smith in a play in playoff game vs. the Rams at the end of the season.

Rodgers probably would have had a worse career than he had in Green Bay, given the state of his surroundings and instability of the franchise. Smith probably would have had a better career, given the absence of the unnecessary challenges he faced with the 49ers.

The only thing that is certain, is that if this scenario had occurred, neither quarterback would have rendered a Super Bowl win at this point in their career. While the 49ers may have received the worse end of the stick in reality, Rodgers' favorite childhood team giving him the cold shoulder ended up being the best thing that ever happened to him.