2011 NFL Draft: Setting Bust Odds for the Top 10 QBs in This Year's Draft Class

Who is the next Ryan Leaf? Or the next JaMarcus Russell? Some think it's Cam Newton. Others don't like Jake Locker's need for improvement despite his upside. Other quarterbacks are expected to be drafted in later rounds with less expectations.

Several teams are going to draft quarterbacks in the 2011 NFL Draft and some of them are going to get it wrong. Not every player drafted can live up to expectation.

Here are the odds on the top 10 NFL quarterback draft prospects busting in the NFL.

10. Pat Devlin, Delaware: 100/1

Pat Devlin attended Penn State before transferring to Delaware for more playing time. He's widely considered the ninth best quarterback prospect and projected to be drafted in the fourth or fifth round.

Being a late-round pick out of a FCS school helps Devlin assure that he won't bust. Expectations of the general public will be low. He's not expected to develop into more than an NFL backup.

Devlin has great arm strength and good size. His accuracy needs improvement.

9. Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech: 75/1

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MIAMI, FL - JANUARY 03: Tyrod Taylor #5 of the Virginia Tech Hokies rolls out of the pocket against the Stanford Cardinal during the 2011 Discover Orange Bowl at Sun Life Stadium on January 3, 2011 in Miami, Florida. Stanford won 40-12. (Photo by Marc Se

There aren't a lot of expectations surrounding Tyrod Taylor entering the draft. He's expected to be a sixth-round draft pick at best.

Truthfully, Taylor may want to use his athleticism at a different position. He has exceptional speed and mobility but lacks accuracy.

Taylor has teams looking at him as a wide receiver.

8. Andy Dalton, TCU: 40/1

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PASADENA, CA - JANUARY 01: Quarterback Andy Dalton #14 of the TCU Horned Frogs throws a pass against the Wisconsin Badgers in the 97th Rose Bowl game on January 1, 2011 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

Andy Dalton doesn't do anything greatly but he doesn't do anything poorly either. His size and his release are the biggest concerns. Dalton is expected to be drafted in the third or fourth round.

But what Dalton did particularly well in college was win. In four years as the Horned Frogs' starter, Dalton went 42-6.

Dalton should develop into a dependable backup quarterback in the NFL.

7. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada: 30/1

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SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JANUARY 09: Colin Kaepernick #10 of the Nevada Wolf Pack looks to pass the ball against Boston College during the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl at AT&T Park on January 9, 2011 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Colin Kaepernick is a project for an NFL franchise. But he a player with the necessary size and athleticism and good enough arm strength to be a pro quarterback.

He needs to learn to play in a pro-style offense, and needs work on his accuracy.

But Kaepernick will be drafted in the third or fourth round with tremendous upside. It's hard to go wrong in that case.

6. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa: 25:1

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MOBILE, AL - JANUARY 29: Quarterback Ricky Stanzi #12 of the North Team passes over South Team defenders during second quarter of the Under Armour Senior Bowl on January 29, 2011 at Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Im

NFL scouts know what they're getting when they draft Ricky Stanzi: a player with above average physical abilites who needs grooming to become a reliable, longtime NFL backup.

Stanzi is going to be a mid-round pick—fifth-round at worst—and will be developed into a backup with first-string potential.

He has the leadership abilities necessary to lead a team.

5. Christian Ponder, Florida State: 20/1

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TALLAHASSEE, FL - NOVEMBER 27: Christian Ponder #7 of the Florida State Seminoles throws for a first down during a game against the Florida Gators at Doak Campbell Stadium on November 27, 2010 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Christian Ponder needs some serious coaching to get him ready for a pro-offense. He needs to make decisions faster and read defenses better.

But he is athletic, possesses adequate arm strength and is worthy of a second-round pick. However, being picked so high will heap pretty weighty expectations on him. He will either be seen as a quarterback to be or of the near future.

4. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas: 5/1

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NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 04: Quarterback Ryan Mallett #15 of the Arkansas Razorbacks looks to pass against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the Allstate Sugar Bowl at the Louisiana Superdome on January 4, 2011 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Matthew

Ryan Mallett might slip into the first round, but it seems more and more like he will be a second-round pick. But that 6'7" frame and missile launcher hanging from his right arm will make it hard for NFL teams to pass him by, and for NFL fans not to get really excited about him.

Mallett will be looked at as an NFL starter whether he is taken in the first round or not. If he is expected to start right away, he'll likely bust. If he gets a year to sit and learn, he'll be better off.

3. Cam Newton, Auburn: 5/1

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SAN DIEGO, CA - FEBRUARY 10: 2010 Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Cam Newton of Auburn throws the ball during his workout routine for the media at Cathedral High School's sports stadium on February 10, 2011 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kent Horn

Cam Newton is a project. Hopefully whichever NFL team picks him agrees, for Newton's sake. He's supremely athletic with great arm strength.

But there are concerns. Newton has no experience under center or in a pro-style offense. His background will be intensely investigated thanks to the pay-for-play accusations.

For every pick higher that Newton is picked, the higher his probability of busting simply because of the increased expectations. The more heaped on him by a desperate franchise, the worse.

2. Jake Locker, Washington: 2/1

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SEATTLE - OCTOBER 30: Quarterback Jake Locker #10 of the Washington Huskies scrambles against the Stanford Cardinal on October 30, 2010 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. Stanford won 41-0. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Jake Locker is a mystery. But some NFL franchises think they have him figured out. Hopefully, none of them think that he is ready to be a starter in 2011.

Locker has rare tools. His combination of arm strength, accuracy and mobility nearly unrivaled in this season's quarterback draft pool.

But he hasn't shown anyone that he is ready to take a team over. Give him time or he will surely bust.

1. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri: 1/1

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TEMPE, AZ - DECEMBER 28: Quarterback Blaine Gabbert #11 of the Missouri Tigers drops back to pass during the Insight Bowl against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Sun Devil Stadium on December 28, 2010 in Tempe, Arizona. The Hawkeyes defeated the Tigers 27-24. (P

Blaine Gabbert is tall, strong, mobile and has a powerful and accurate arm. He's considered the best overall quarterback prospect by many experts and scouts and stands to make a ton of money come April.

But he is ready to be an NFL quarterback?

What if Cincinnati or Washington pick him and plug him in right away? Will he be set up for success? Probably not. If he goes to Buffalo or Minnesota and asked to sit and learn for a season, he'll be better off.

There is a lot of hype surrounding Gabbert. But there is as good of chance of it being just hype as there is of it being true.