NFL Draft 2011: Why the New England Patriots Won't Take a RB Early

Mock draft season is upon us, and I for one have been hungrily scouring the web for some idea of whom my hometown Patriots might take with their multitude of picks in the early rounds. For a 14-2 team, New England actually has its fair share of holes to fill, but there’s one position that I believe many mock draft authors have been overemphasizing as a possibility for the Patriots: running back.

At least half of the mocks I’ve read have the Patriots taking either Mark Ingram (Alabama) or Mikel Leshoure (Illinois) with one of their three picks in the top 33.

The logic is not hard to see. Ingram and Leshoure are tremendous talents who present great value at the bottom of the first round (or later), and while the duo of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead did a nice job for New England this past season, the RB corps could be upgraded with an infusion of young talent. 

With another team, I might agree. But taking a running back early just doesn’t fit the Patriots’ MO.

Under coach (and effectively, general manager) Bill Belichick, the Patriots simply haven’t put much value in the RB position at the top of the draft. The following list shows how many players the Patriots have selected in the first three rounds at each position during Belichick’s tenure. Some positions have been condensed for simplicity’s sake (e.g., offensive line as opposed to tackle, guard, and center).

Cornerback: 6
Defensive line: 5
Linebacker: 5
Offensive line: 5
Wide receiver: 5
Tight end: 4
Safety: 3
Running back: 2
Quarterback: 1

As we can see, the only position less emphasized at the top of the draft by this team is quarterback, which has obviously been locked down by Tom Brady for the past decade. 

Their only high selections at RB have been JR Redmond, a third rounder in 2000 who played his role in a championship run but never became a fixture; and Laurence Maroney, who showed some promise in his first two seasons before succumbing to injuries, declining yardage, fumbles and eventually a trade to Denver. Needless to say, neither selection can be considered a slam dunk.

Nevertheless, it would be a misunderstanding to deem New England’s run game a failure.

Lacking a star back since Corey Dillon, the Patriots have instead found success through a committee approach. Last season, they finished ninth in the league with 123.3 rushing yards per game, with 4.3 yards per carry.

Their leading rusher? The undrafted Green-Ellis, who had 229 carries—good for only 15th most in the league—but even that was an uncharacteristically large amount for a Patriots RB, made necessary by a multitude of injuries.

The year before, Maroney led the team with only 194 carries, and the Patriots finished 12th in yards per game.  And in ’08, Sammy Morris paced the team with 156 carries, and New England boasted the sixth best rushing attack in the league. Clearly, the team has achieved dependable, if not overpowering, results despite lacking a traditional feature back.

The trend seems to be one echoed throughout the league. More and more teams are dispatching a team of rushers, each with a limited number of carries, rather than letting a single workhorse back pull all the weight. The advantage is obvious: at a position known for the brevity of its shelf life, it makes sense to protect the players as much as possible by limiting their action, and thus, the impact they must absorb.

There’s also some evidence that the success of a running back is determined largely by his surroundings, especially the line in front of him, rather than simply his innate talent—rendering the draft somewhat of a crapshoot. The 10 leading rushers in the league last year included four first rounders, two second rounders and a third rounder—but also a fifth rounder, a seventh rounder and an undrafted player, Arian Foster, who actually led the league in rushing. 

Make no mistake, the talent is usually found at the top of the draft. But there are gems available later on to those willing to find them. And the Patriots have always placed great faith in their scouts.

Given all of the team’s needs, I see them expending their early picks on defenders and offensive linemen. Running back can wait for rounds three to five, where options like DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma), Shane Vereen (California) and Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech) should be available.

Mark Ingram and Mikel Leshoure are terrific players. But when the names are called in April, neither will be donning the blue and silver.