NFC North Playoff 2011: Will Green Bay Repeat Their Super Bowl Victory?

There is no doubt that Green Bay had all of the right things happen at the right time to make their hunt for a Super Bowl ring come true this past season.  They have talent, a QB who can lead them and a bit of history of being in the Super Bowl hunt before.  They even have the same Super Bowl MVP QB promising the Packers fans that they will, indeed, be back at the Super Bowl next year. 

Impressive.

I lived in Wisconsin for over 10 years and saw first hand that the entire state revolves around football, at the collegiate and the professional level.  It is a following and an attitude that is contagious.  I loved the Detroit Lions (my true and current home state team), but found myself rooting for the Green and Gold anytime they were not playing against the Lions. 

A true shocker for me. 

I also believed that if you didn't root for the Packers, someone would help you find the door to another state to live in.  They love the Packers that much.  It's amazing to watch, really.  They are financially and emotionally invested in this team: the only city that still owns an NFL team is Green Bay.  God forbid you be a Vikings or Bears fan in Wisconsin. 

At the time I lived there, they just laughed at my idea that Detroit was even a team, let alone a threat.

But back to the point: will the Packers be able to repeat what they did this season?

I truly believe they will not.

Yes, I will get a lot of flack for saying this, especially from Packer fans.  However, I am looking at facts.  The Packers made it as far as they did, partially, due to luck.  This may be true for all Super Bowl teams.  The cards fell at the right times, they kept their No. 1 QB on the field and they brought home the trophy to prove that they were the best this year.  

I'm happy for them, really.  They do have a great team and obviously outplayed the Steelers, who just looked lackluster and stunned. 

The game of football is part talent and part mental.  The Packers had both going for them last season.  They believed they could be "that" team and made it happen.

What about in 2011?  Will they maintain that when they struggle to win the NFC title outright (again)?

The Chicago Bears gave them a run for their money, but had a weaker schedule.  Everyone knew that.

The Vikings had a chance to go all the way two seasons ago, but not last season.  They ended up at 6-10 with the Lions.  The Vikings had a very good team, but could not keep their QB position in check.

The Lions had a stronger schedule than the Bears, but could not pull off enough wins to push for a division title.  However, they were close.

The absolute crucial difference between the Packers, Vikings and Lions (and eventually, the Bears) was keeping their No. 1 quarterback on the field.

What does this have to do with the Packers winning back to back Super Bowls?  Let's use the example of when Rodgers was out against the Lions.  When Rodgers was out, the Lions beat them by four points.  When Rodgers was in, but the Lions' No. 1 QB was out, the Lions lost to the Packers by two points (in Lambeau Field). 

Two points.  Not a significant difference.  But enough to be in the "loss" column for the Lions.

Prediction: The Green Bay Packers, for the first time in recent history, need to be worried about the Detroit Lions being the "spoiler" next year.  When the Lions won their last four games of the season while taking on two major playoff contenders (TB and yes, GB), it leaves the question of a Green Bay repeat in limbo.  Or, at the very least, it makes one wonder if Green Bay can do it again in the NFC North. 

The remaining three teams in the division, Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota, are looking to only get better.  The Green Bay Packers hope to continue to stay on track. 

The way I see the situation in the NFC North playing out in 2011 is this: 

The Vikings have a new coach, still no stadium to play in and no one is sure what will really happen at the QB position, so I give them a year or two to rebuild. 

The Bears will correct their deficits and come on strong in 2011, but will fall short again because they have to keep their QB happy, which is not an easy task. 

The Lions will correct their deficits and will make a very impressive appearance in 2011 because they took care of several "mental monkeys" in 2010 and have nothing to lose by going for it all in 2011.  They also have the added motivation to keep Calvin Johnson happy. 

The Packers have the weight of a repeat on their shoulders.  This is a heavy weight to carry and not one that many teams have pulled off historically.  2010 was the best bet for the Packers and they cashed in on it.

The NFC North is no laughing matter.  They emerged as the real deal last season and I expect them to continue that in 2011.  This time, however, it will be the Packers that have everything to lose and the rest of the teams that have everything to gain.

It is my belief, and not just because I am a Lions fan, that the Detroit Lions are the team to watch in 2011.

They will prioritize keeping Stafford healthy after seeing what happens when they don't (two seasons in a row).  They will also be very focused on keeping one of the best WRs in the NFL, Calvin Johnson, in a Detroit Lions uniform.  (Al Davis disagrees with me, but you have to consider the source.  It's Al Davis.) 

Calvin comes up for free agency in 2013.  He, like most high caliber players, wants to win.  He wants to play for a winning team.  The Lions have to become this team in 2011.  No excuses.  Sure, they could wait until 2012 to be "that" team, but why think that way?  Put the right pieces in place during free agency and the draft and you have a playoff contender team.

The Packers have a great team and a great attitude.  There is no way I am going to dispute that fact.  They will be a strong force in 2011. 

But there is another team just as hungry, if not more so, who has recently found its smile (Thank you, Billy Crystal, for the useful reference).  This is significant if you are a Detroit Lion.  This means they have a new mentality.  Since football is part talent and part mental and the Lions have amassed several very talented players, the newly acquired positive mentality in Detroit will make this team formidable in 2011.

It's time for the Detroit Lions to shake off the last 50 years and make a run for the Super Bowl.  In the immortal words of John Lennon, "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one..."