2011 NFL Draft Order: Entire 1st Round Pick Predictions
2011 NFL Draft Order, From Carolina To Green Bay
2011 NFL Draft Order is all set now that the Super Bowl and NFL season is over.
The Panthers have the first pick (even if they wish they don’t) and there still isn’t much certainty to what they’ll do. That leaves us with one of the more uncertain drafts in recent history.
So who will land where? Here’s our best guesses.
No. 1: Carolina Panthers, Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
1 of 32
Needs: QB, WR, DL, DB
Carolina was almost certainly going to take Andrew Luck with their first pick, so that doesn’t exactly signify much confidence in the development of Jimmy Clausen. And, especially if they are looking to move Steve Smith, they are in tremendous need for help at the wide receiver position.
But the Panthers lost Julius Peppers through free agency last year. His replacement, Charles Johnson, had a pretty good season, posting 11.5 sacks. He too now is a free agent.
And since Da’Quan Bowers is probably the most talented player in the draft, he should be the choice.
No. 2: Denver Broncos, Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama
2 of 32
Needs: OL, DL, DB
For obvious reasons, there is a lot of vibe around Nick Fairley. There's no question he is a great player. But in terms of players at the defensive line, Dareus fits better into John Fox’s scheme.
Dareus is a bit more athletic and active than Fairley. He will be the cornerstone of a revamped Broncos defense that was absolutely awful against the run in 2010 and not much better against the pass.
Dareus will bring the type of winning attitude Fox loves and will help get the Broncos back on track.
Even if Tim Tebow isn’t terribly happy about having to hear the Tide fight song next training camp.
No. 3: Buffalo Bills, Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
3 of 32
Needs: OL, DL, DB
The Bills offense showed signs of promise last year, but the run defense was absolutely horrific in 2010. Not only were they ranked dead last in rush defense, they allowed more 200 or more yards on the ground in exactly half of their games.
Fairley is the type of player who can make stops in the running game. But more importantly, his presence will occupy blockers and free up Paul Posluszny (assuming he decides to come back) to make tackles closer to the line of scrimmage, instead of five yards beyond it.
And to new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt, Fairley will remind him of another high first round defensive tackle who was a big factor in a team’s turnaround: Russell Maryland.
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No. 4: Cincinnati Bengals, Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
4 of 32
Needs: WR, DL, LB
Certainly A.J. Green or Julio Jones are great players, and they would contribute to any offense. But why would the Bengals spend such a high pick on a wide receiver, like so many people assume?
Chad Johnson has been a pro bowler six of the last eight seasons, none of which ended with the Bengals winning even a single playoff game. And Terrell Owens put up some great numbers in 2010, yet the team still finished with four wins. The last thing Carson Palmer needs is a rookie wide out to baby sit and yell at for 17 weeks.
There are clearly other needs on this squad and it starts with the defense. Marvin Lewis will find great ways to use a player with Quinn’s skill set.
And since the franchise has shown absolutely no qualms about bringing in players with “character issues” (Pacman Jones, Terrell Owens, Tank Johnson) they won’t shy away from Quinn, who missed all of 2010 after lying to NCAA investigators.
No. 5: Arizona Cardinals, Patrick Peterson, CB, Louisiana State
5 of 32
Needs: QB, OL, DB
The Cardinals have locked up Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for a long time, but it’s just too hard to pass on a player like Peterson, the most athletic player in the entire 2011 draft. He’d probably go first if teams didn’t want to become the first ever to select a defensive back that high.
Peterson will contribute right away on both defense and on special teams. (As great as LaRod Stephens-Howling was in 2010, the punt return game could use a major boost.)
The Cards defense was fourth worst in the NFL and with a new defensive coordinator moving in, Ray Horton, who was a returner and cornerback in his playing days, Peterson can make a major impact.
No. 6: Cleveland Browns, A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
6 of 32
Needs: WR, DE, LB, S
The Browns defense needs plenty of help: they had the sixth worst defense in the league and recorded only 29 sacks. So they’ll take a long look at Von Miller.
Colt McCoy made unexpected progress last year and assuming he can stay pretty healthy for the next few years, is a viable feature back. But the wide receiving corps is one of the worst in the NFL.
Brian Robiskie and Mohammad Massaquoi are not going to be clear cut first options for McCoy. Pat Shurmer would love to have a player like Green (he would have loved to have had him in St. Louis too) who can take a lot of pressure off a young quarterback and a young head coach.
No. 7: San Francisco 49ers, Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
7 of 32
Needs: QB, OL, DE, DB
The 49ers were really hoping that Patrick Peterson would fall to them, but they’ll “settle” for the 2010 Heisman Trophy winner.
Clearly the club needs a new quarterback. Alex Smith probably won’t be back and Troy Smith probably won’t either. That leaves David Carr.
Newton’s pro value is as much a question mark as any quarterback in recent history, but pairing him with a coach like Jim Harbaugh gives them the best chance possible.
Harbaugh should see a lot of Andrew Luck in Newton and will not have to completely revamp Stanford gameplans.
And with Newton’s arm, a good young line and two promising pass catches (Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree) the 49ers middling offense could become rock solid next year.
No. 8: Tennessee Titans, Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
8 of 32
Needs: QB, DB, DL, DB
A quarterback like Blaine Gabbert is an interesting choice, and even if they pass on a quarterback, they could definitely use a wide receiver like Julio Jones.
But with their new head coach Mike Munchak placing an immense amount of value on the battle up front, he’ll want to amp up their defensive line.
The club won’t want to pay Jason Babin the huge contract he’ll ask for (there’ll be a major concern that his 12.5-sack season was a one-hit wonder). Clayborn is a great replacement: he’s younger and has less wear-and-tear.
No. 9: Dallas Cowboys, Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
9 of 32
Needs: OL, LB, DB
The Cowboys defense had a down year, but they are still loaded with quality NFL players at several spots like outside linebacker and corner.
The same is true on offense, where Tony Romo should return to form. There are also a couple good running backs, and the ride receiver spot is filled for years to come.
But the offensive line could use some help, assuming Doug Free bolts via free agency. Neither remaining tackle is particularly stellar and with Solder, the running game should be able to pick up.
Jason Garrett knows the value of a great offensive line: how else would he have survived under center those few times when Troy Aikman was knocked out of the lineup?
No. 10: Washington Redskins, Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
10 of 32
Needs: QB, WR, DE
The Redskins have plenty of needs, especially along the defensive line where the blunder of signing Albert Haynesworth will haunt them for years.
And Mike Shanahan will think long and hard about tabbing Julio Jones at this spot, in order to put Rex Grossman or (maybe) Donovan McNabb with a great receiver as they won’t even have Santana Moss back next season.
But it’s just too hard for them to pass on a big arm.
Ryan Mallett would also be an intriguing pick here, but Gabbert seems a touch more ready now.
Grossman can hold his own at the start of the season, but Gabbert has the tools for quick on-the-job growth.
No. 11: Houston Texans, Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
11 of 32
Needs: OL, LB, DB
Houston’s offense is spectacular: An NFL leading rusher, a fine passer in Matt Schaub and (presumably) a healthy Andre Johnson next season. So why did they miss the playoffs for a ninth straight year? The NFL’s worst pass defense.
Mario Williams and Brian Cushing are great players up front, so the secondary is where they could use the most improvement.
Kareem Jackson could turn into a top player for them, so using another first round pick on a corner is a gamble. But Amukamara is extremely talented and physically gifted. Furthermore, having two excellent corners isn’t bad thing to have when you play Peyton Manning twice a season.
No. 12: Minnesota Vikings, Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
12 of 32
Needs: QB, DL, DB
For whatever reason, experts are delighted in talking about how “Ryan Mallett’s stock is plummeting.” That type of prognostication will probably shift to someone else next week.
But Mallett has as much of a chance of becoming an NFL star as Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert. He made a handful of big, pro-style throws in the Sugar Bowl against a defense loaded with NFL talent.
Everyone knows the Vikings need a quarterback: Brett Favre won’t be back next summer, and signing Tarvaris Jackson to a deal doesn’t seem to be in their best interest.
With Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin and maybe Sidney Rice, Mallett will be in position to succeed early and could have a Sam Bradford-type rookie season.
No. 13: Detroit Lions, Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
13 of 32
Needs: OL, LB, DB
Assuming that Matthew Stafford is able to recover from yet another injury, the Lions offense should be able to hold their own next season.
But there are still plenty of issues with the club’s defense. As good as NFL Rookie Defensive Player of the Year Ndamukong Suh is, he can’t do it alone. Eventually defenses will clamp down on him with two or three players and it will be up to the other six guys along the line of scrimmage to get penetration.
Miller is an excellent outside pass rusher and will have a presence in the running game as well.
With the 2009 Outland Trophy winner coming up the gut and the 2010 Butkus Trophy winner coming off the edges, the Lions will have a nice response when they play the Super Bowl MVP, Aaron Rodgers, twice next season.
No. 14: St. Louis Rams, Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
14 of 32
Needs: WR, TE, LB
The Rams and especially Sam Bradford’s prayers and crossed fingers are rewarded here. The semi-absurd concerns about Julio Jones (that he didn’t catch enough balls or contribute enough in the run-heavy Tide offense) allow him to fall a few extra spots.
The Rams are absolutely desperate for help at the wide receiver position and Jones will be the perfect answer. Even if the club does go out and sign a free agent like Terrell Owens or Sidney Rice, Jones will have a great impact from the start, much like Dez Bryant did in Dallas last season.
Jones is just as talented and as refined as his SEC counterpart A.J. Green and it will be very interesting to see who becomes the better pro.
No. 15: Miami Dolphins, Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
15 of 32
Needs: RB, OL, DL, DB
The Dolphins have one of the more curious choices here. They are smack dab in the middle of the draft and their needs are going to be dependent on how the free agency period shakes up.
If Ronnie Brown’s demands are too high (and they probably will be for a player who averaged a career low 46 yards a game last season) the Dolphins should consider parting with him.
That would leave big hole in their offense, one which 34-year-old Ricky Williams cannot fill alone.
Ingram is a nice replacement for Brown and brings both power and some speed to the position. He would fit it from the outset.
And the club should already have a locker ready for him in Dolphins Stadium: his dad was a big time free agent signee for the club back in 1993.
No. 16: Jacksonville Jaguars, Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal
16 of 32
Needs: WR, OL, DL, DB
The Jags would like to be able to take a quarterback here, but they won’t reach on Jake Locker. Furthermore, a coach such as Jack Del Rio, who is sitting near (though, not on) the hot seat doesn’t want to waste his first round choice on a quarterback. Just ask Mike Sherman how that worked in Green Bay a few years back.
That means the club will turn its attention to the defensive side of the ball.
Jacksonville recorded just 26 sacks in 2010, second worst in the NFL. This year’s draft presents several good options available to remedy that. Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan is still left on the board, as is J.J. Watt and Muhammad Wilkerson.
But Jordan is the most refined and most pro ready defensive end available here. He played in 50 games for the Bears, starting 32, so he has plenty of experience chasing NFL caliber quarterbacks like Andrew Luck, Mark Sanchez and Jake Locker.
No. 17: New England Patriots, Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida
17 of 32
Needs: OG, OT, DE
Logan Mankins could be franchised, and reports are that he wouldn’t be too upset about that. But the Patriots should look for a more long-term fit on the offensive line, especially if Matt Lyght leaves as well.
Pouncey’s stock has risen considerably over the last few months. He partly has his brother Maurkice to thank for that.
But Mike Pouncey should transition to the NFL just as well, if not better than his twin brother. Another year at Florida only helped his NFL stock and playing in a more pass heavy offense (with John Brantley and not Tim Tebow) sharpened his pass protection skills, something he’ll definitely need if he is on the same team as Tom Brady.
And since the Pats have another pick in the first round, they can address their front-seven issues there, where there are still going to be great defensive players available.
No. 18: San Diego Chargers, Tyron Smith, OT, Southern California
18 of 32
Needs: OL, DL, DB
The Chargers don’t need any help at the skill positions, even if they don’t franchise Vincent Jackson and he leaves. And on defense, they finished the season with one of the best overall units.
So considering how reliant they are on Phillip Rivers, bolstering the offensive line, especially at tackle, would do them good.
Rivers was sacked 37 times last year and although part of that was because he threw so often, they did give up some big shots on the outside.
There are a few good tackles available this late, including Gabe Carimi and Anthony Castonzo. But Smith is a Southern California kid who played his ball nearby and is quicker and more athletic than any other lineman on the board.
No. 19: New York Giants, Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
19 of 32
Needs: RB, OL, DT, DB
The Giants really would have liked Mike Pouncey at this spot and they might consider taking Rodney Hudson from FSU as a backup plan. But there is just as much need on defense.
Cornerback is a possibility, but they also don’t want to reach on a player like Ras-I Dowling or the underclassman from Colorado, Jimmy Smith.
Instead, the Giants should take a look at fortifying the middle of their defensive line. Ends Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Uminyiora are outstanding, but they’ll probably lose Mathius Kiwanuka to free agency and maybe Barry Cofield.
That would leave a hole in a defense that collapsed at times in the second half of games.
As a junior turning pro early, Liuget has some question marks about his NFL future but he’s big, athletic and has become the “it” player in many scouts minds lately. Depending on what he does at the combine, he could be a steal at this spot.
No. 20: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
20 of 32
Needs: WR, RB, OL, LB
The Bucs biggest hole to fill might be the inside linebacker position, where Barrett Ruud is a free agent and will be interested in a big contract.
But even if Ruud leaves, there isn’t a great replacement available in the first round.
Tampa has some talent (not that much, however) at the skill positions. So look for the Bucs to try and shore up the protection for their budding superstar quarterback Josh Freeman instead.
Anthony Castonzo is a possibility, but the Outland Trophy winner and All-American from Wisconsin is just too attractive to pass up.
Carimi is definitely capable of stepping in and starting sometime during his rookie season, like Bryan Bulaga, another first rounder from the Big Ten did in Green Bay last year.
No. 21: Kansas City Chiefs, Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
21 of 32
Needs: OL, LB, CB
Tamba Hali should have been a pro bowler in 2010. And now he is a free agent who will command tons of attention this spring.
The odds of the clubs bringing him back for 2011 are still good: Romeo Crennel and Todd Haley know how vital he was to the Chiefs AFC West title.
But even if they do bring him back, having another outstanding linebacker like Ayers opposite him with Glen Dorsey in the middle would give them an outstanding front seven. Mike Vrabel had a decent season in 2010, but he’ll be 36 next August and they need to tab a replacement.
Ayers is a great player and will transition seamlessly to the NFL: he can rush the passer, play the run and play coverage.
No. 22: Indianapolis Colts, Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
22 of 32
Needs: RB, OL, LB, DB
The Colts have several needs, but they should look to address several of them through free agency. Don’t expect them to take another late first round running back like they did in 2006 and 2009.
The defense should get most of their attention instead.
They might be looking to upgrade at linebacker, but with the likelihood of Bob Sanders never returning to the player he once was, they should look for a new option at safety.
Moore is the best player at that position in the 2010 draft and the Colts would be thrilled to see him still on the board at 22.
No. 23: Philadelphia Eagles, Jimmy Smith, DB, Colorado
23 of 32
Needs: OL, LB, DB
The Eagles won the NFC East and were widely considered a Super Bowl favorite in November, but they still have a handful of question marks regarding the future, even beyond Michael Vick.
The offensive line needs significant upgrades at several spots, including tackle. But with the three best tackles and the top guard gone, they don’t want to reach.
While they also need to make serious improvements to their pass rush (blitzing linebackers doesn’t work if they don’t get home) the secondary needs the most help.
Ellis Hobbs career could be over after that neck injury and Asante Samuel has to come back from a knee injury.
If the club misses out on free agents like Nnamdi Asomugha or Antonio Cromartie, they’ll look to the draft.
Smith is soaring up the experts big boards thanks to this stat: 11 passes completed against him in 2010.
No. 24: New Orleans Saints, Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
24 of 32
Needs: RB, OL, DE, DB
The Saints defense could never have repeated their incredible 2009 performance, but they still have several fine players and with Gregg Williams they are going to bounce back in 2011.
The terribly inefficient running game should be a greater concern for head coach Sean Payton.
Reggie Bush might not be back next year and even if he is, the injuries have taken a toll on him. The same might be true for Pierre Thomas, who is a free agent anyway.
Leshoure will have had an outstanding season for a pretty mediocre Big Ten team and with Rashard Mendenhall panning out in Pittsburgh, the Saints can rest assured they are getting a fine back.
Remember, in 2010, he did have a few nice games against good, pro-style defenses in Missouri, Penn State and Ohio State.
No. 25: Seattle Seahawks, Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
25 of 32
Needs: QB, TE, LB, DB
The Seahawks need to address other positions, like quarterback. Although Jake Locker would make for a great story, they just don’t want to reach on a quarterback at this spot.
And with Marshawn Lynch seeming to come around at the end of the 2010, they should be able to get by with him as their feature back.
They do have a gaping hole at tight end though, something that became very evident in their playoff loss to the Bears.
Now they already have one Notre Dame tight end in John Carlson (who becomes a free agent after next year) but Rudolph is the best tight end available and will contribute in the passing game. He should have no trouble coming back from his shoulder injury, and Pete Carroll should like Rudolph from watching film on him for two seasons when he was still at USC.
No. 26: Baltimore Ravens, Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
26 of 32
Needs: WR, OL, DL, DB
Free agent Haloti Ngata might be expecting more money and years than the Ravens are willing to pay.
So they might be interested in a defensive tackle like Phil Taylor. But because they spent last year’s second round selection on Mount Cody, it’s too early to call him a bust.
But they could use another defensive end on that aging defense. Few people realize that they only recorded 27 sacks in 2010, third worst in the NFL.
Kerrigan would be able to improve upon that stat and even if he cannot start from the outset, he is very good at forcing turnovers and could give the Ravens a nice three-man rotation.
No. 27: Atlanta Falcons, Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
27 of 32
Needs: WR, DE, DT, LB
The Falcons definitely need another wide receiver to complement Roddy White, but given how productive their offense was in 2010, they cannot justify spending their top pick on offense.
They have major holes to fill along the front seven and that showed in the playoff loss to Green Bay.
With John Abraham they have a good pass rush, but the interior of that defense is lacking.
Peria Jerry has not panned out yet because of his injury and a player like Taylor would give them a great alternative.
He is incredibly strong and gained a tremendous amount of experience by playing two years in the Big Ten with Penn State and becoming a two-year starter in the Big XII at Baylor.
No. 28: New England Patriots, Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
28 of 32
Needs: OL, DE, DB
The absolute steal of the draft goes (unfairly some would say) to the Patriots.
Jordan is NFL ready right now, as he proved in the Sugar Bowl win over Arkansas. But there are a few other players who stood out on defense that convinced teams to go in a different direction. And playing at Ohio State, where the depth chart reads like an NFL draft recap, actually hurts Jordan on draft day.
The Pats young defense grew by leaps and bounds in the second half of the 2010 season. And for the most part they played well in the playoff loss to the Jets.
Adding Heyward would give them a bona fide stud defensive end that they haven’t had since they traded Richard Seymour.
No. 29: Chicago Bears, Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pitt
29 of 32
Needs: WR, OL, DB
It’s a tough call here for the Bears. They definitely need help along the offensive line. And there are still three good selections still on the board in Derek Sherrod, Rodney Hudson and Anthony Castonzo. But the Bears would be wise to address those line concerns via free agency and not put a rookie lineman in the lineup to protect and make already tenuous quarterback position even worse.
Instead, getting Jay Cutler a big receiver with great hands and good route running abilities is a better option.
Mike Martz would love to be able to use Devin Hester more as a third, slot receiver, and he can make that move if they go out and get a big wide out.
No. 30: New York Jets, Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State
30 of 32
Needs: WR, OG, DE, LB
The Jets don’t have too many holes to fill….well, that depends on what happens with their slew of free agents to be.
So with Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards and Antonio Cromartie all questions marks, they may have some tough decisions to make.
Holmes, Edwards, and Cromartie are not that likely to be back because they’ll command big salaries. But because David Harris will also (and is not quite at the play-making level of those others) he could be the odd man out.
If the Jets have to find a replacement for him, they’d rather do it in the draft than via the free agent market. A late first rounder like Jones wouldn’t cost nearly as much.
In that defense, he wouldn’t have to stand out and contribute too much right away. He’s not big (6’1”) but he moves to the ball as well as anyone in this draft.
No. 31: Pittsburgh Steelers, Rodney Hudson, OG, Florida State
31 of 32
Needs: OT, OG, LB, CB
The Steelers could lose as many as three key free agents this offseason: Ike Taylor, Willie Colon and LaMarr Woodley.
But Woodley should be retained with the franchise tag and Colon won’t be able to ask for more than he’s worth since he missed all of last season.
That gives the Steelers a little more flexibility when it comes to restructuring their line for next season. With Colon back, and Jonathan Scott and Ramon Foster getting tons of experience this year, they shouldn’t have to spend a top pick on a tackle.
That would give them the option of adding one of the two best guards in the draft, Florida State’s Rodney Hudson, to play on the other side of Chris Kemoeatu….even if Maurkice Pouncey doesn’t like playing next to a Seminole and hoped to have his twin instead.
No. 32: Green Bay Packers, J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
32 of 32
Needs: RB, OL, DL
The Super Bowl champs have a few spots that they know they need depth at, especially running back. Even with Ryan Grant there will be a concern about his recovery, James Starks really only had one great game despite his superstar image, and Brandon Jackson is a free agent.
Still, they’ll probably look to the free agent market to fill any running back concerns.
Instead, they can afford to draft the local icon from Wisconsin, J.J. Watt.
He would benefit greatly from playing on the same side as Clay Matthews III and if Cullen Jenkins leaves via free agency, Watt would be the ideal replacement. He’s quick and is active in both the run and passing game.
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