
2011 NFL Draft: 10 Ways Labor Negotiations Could Change Teams' Draft Strategies
It looked like we were going to have a 2011 NFL season, or at least I thought we would. Perhaps it was just wishful thinking, as NFL labor talks were canceled today with both sides far from an agreement. As a result, the 2011 NFL season may or may not happen, but more importantly, the 2011 offseason will not happen.
The offseason is when rookies and new staff members mesh with those established in the organization so that the team can move forward. Without an offseason, it changes the landscape of the draft entirely. What types of players will team management look to draft, and who will they pass on?
The following are 10 ways that the labor negotiations will cause draft strategies to shift.
1. Going for Youth
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If there's no 2011 season on top of no offseason, then any players drafted will be a year older when they are next able to play football. For most, this is not a big deal, but when a player only has a few good years in the NFL and one is cut, then there are issues.
Perhaps the most notable player at risk would be Danny Watkins, guard at Baylor. He's been working his way up the draft boards and has made it into the top two rounds in many mock drafts. The problem is that he's 27 and will be 28 for the 2012 season. A 28-year-old rookie might be okay since he's a lineman, but it's still a concern.
Maybe that's why Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden decided to stay in school another year.
2. Avoiding Raw Talent
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The NFL always seems to be about winning now, and when a team says they're rebuilding, it means they want to contend in two to three years. Drafting a player who's still green is usually a smart move for a team that's looking for hidden talent.
However, that first year to groom the player will be gone if there's a lockout, further delaying development in the system and possibly causing them to never fully adjust to the NFL since they'll have that year off from college. It's a much bigger risk to draft raw talent this year.
3. Avoiding Quarterbacks
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In the same vein that teams may avoid raw talent, teams could avoid quarterbacks as well. I think they should anyway since Gabbert and company are a lousy class, but there's another reason.
It takes a quarterback the offseason and more time beyond that to get fully adjusted to an NFL playbook and the pro formations used. Without that pivotal first year, it delays a quarterback's progress, and if a quarterback has issues with keeping in shape, that year off could ruin his chances of making an impact in the NFL, or any league for that matter.
4. Picking Players Based On Conferences
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This one is unlikely to happen, and I hope it does not, but you never know how some teams might think in a lockout situation. They will have to look to draft players who can be ready right when a deal is signed, or at least within a couple weeks.
By extension, teams could look at picking the right players based on their competition. Players like Darvin Adams and DeMarco Murray will rise up draft boards, while players like Titus Young and Jordan Todman will move down. It's not really fair to them, but then again, neither is the lockout.
5. Trading Away Lower-Round Picks for Players
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The draft is usually full of opportunities to find a steal in the draft, since there's seven rounds of possibilities. With a lockout looming, these players could be a lot less desirable, since they often need that offseason to prove that they can be on an NFL roster.
As a result, there is certainly a possibility that teams will trade some of their fifth to seventh round picks for players who may not be good, but who are at least people who have been in the NFL before and know the lay of the land.
6. Avoiding
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There are many players who are considered great talents in the draft yet have some baggage. The biggest example is Robert Quinn, who missed this past season. He has all the talent in the world, but if there's a lockout, will players be willing to pick him up?
After all, that will mean he missed two years in a row without playing competitive football, and there are other players with similar issues as well. If there's a lockout, these players could tumble down the draft big time.
7. Trading Lower-Round Picks for Higher Ones
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Much like the fast that teams may trade their draft picks to bring in players, teams may trade their draft picks to get a higher one so they don't have to worry about figuring out who to keep on their roster. Teams invest a lot more in those higher draft picks, so they know they will remain on the roster.
By doing this, teams could have a roster that's much more intact should a lockout end, and they could be more prepared for a very short offseason.
8. Avoiding Positions Based On Cost
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One of the big issues in any labor talks will be the rookie pay scale. If nothing is agreed upon by the draft, then there is the possibility that teams will pass on some positions that might merit a bigger pay, such as quarterbacks.
There's a lot of question marks on that end, and the status of players drafted will be up in the air until an agreement is reached. By now, most teams have their first picks narrowed down, but this might be the difference between drafted Cameron Newton or Cameron Jordan.
9. Not Looking Seriously at Undrafted Free Agents
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One of my favorite things to do during the offseason is to look at undrafted free agents and try to see if any would make an impact. This past year, we had LaGarrette Blount and Chris Ivory lead their teams in rushing, and Frank Zombo became an instrumental part of the Packers' Super Bowl-winning team.
This year, there may not be an offseason to look at the undrafted talent, which means that many of them will be cast aside without a chance to play in the NFL. That's a big problem, and they should definitely have that chance. I would hate to see the next Arian Foster disappear before we could even find him.
10. Not Taking the Draft Seriously
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This is highly unlikely to happen for any football team, and it would be completely stupid of and team to do. Then again, you can never discount some of these NFL owners. Because of all the points I have already made, some teams may think that they can blow off the draft since the players may miss a season, and they can just use the next draft class to fill any holes.
I can't begin to note how many things are wrong with that, and I hope no teams actually blow off the draft. Even if the lockout lasts all season, they can fill holes with this and next draft and would be a much better team as a result.
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