2011 NBA Playoff: Predicting Each Eastern Conference Matchup

For the second straight year the Boston Celtics are heading the wrong way entering the playoffs and, just like last year, everyone is writing them off. 

The Bulls have the best record in the NBA, are the deepest team in the East and have the likely MVP. Yet no one thinks they can beat the Heat, a flawed team that should have the best record in the NBA but couldn't beat the winning teams it faced during the regular season.

The Heat are who we thought they were.

Since the Eastern matchups are set, here are my picks for the Eastern Conference's first round.

1. Chicago Bulls vs. 8. Indiana Pacers

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CHICAGO, IL - APRIL 07: Derrick Rose #1 of the Chicago Bulls goes up for a shot past Rajon Rondo #9 of the Boston Celtics at United Center on April 7, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bulls defeated the Celtics 97-81. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledg

The Pacers and Bulls have only met in the playoffs once before, in the 1998 Eastern Conference Finals, and that was an entertaining seven-game series with only one blowout and three of the seven games coming down to the final possession.

This won't be like that.

The Bulls have won three of the four matchups by an average of 17 points. Their January 29th matchup actually resulted in Jim O'Brien getting fired.

In Derrick Rose's lowest scoring game against the Pacers this season, a December matchup that the Bulls won by 19, he scored 17 points, but dished out 12 assists. He tied his career high in points in the Pacers' lone victory in the series with 42. But the Bulls just have too much experience, too much talent and too much Derrick Rose.

Prediction: Bulls in four. Don't believe the "Bulls aren't experienced" hype you keep hearing. Carlos Boozer, Rose, Joakim Noah and Kyle Korver all have gobs of experience and are all playoff performers. It's possible that the Pacers take a game, but doubtful.

2. Miami Heat vs. 7. Philadelphia 76ers

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MIAMI, FL - MARCH 25: Forward LeBron James #6 of the Miami Heat drives against Guard Jodie Meeks #20 of the Philadelphia 76ers at American Airlines Arena on March 25, 2011 in Miami, Florida. The Heat defeated the Sixers 111-99. NOTE TO USER: User expres

The real reason the Heat are so happy to have the second seed has less to do with homecourt against the Celtics in the second round and more to do with missing the Knicks in the first round. The Heat and Knicks split in the regular season, Carmelo Anthony matches up very well with Lebron, plus all of the history between those two franchises would have caused the kind of grueling first round matchup that would have taken so much more energy than you want to expend in the first round.

Instead they get a 76ers team that they dominated during the regular season, and it wasn't really close. The Heat just match up well with the 76ers, though Jrue Holliday could have a big series and Andre Igoudala has quietly had the best season of his career defensively, which could bode well for a superstar-less Philly squad that has overachieved for two-thirds of the season.

Prediction: Miami in four. As I said, it wasn't even close. The only matchup that the 76ers could possibly take advantage of is at the point guard position, and while the 76ers have so much more depth, in the postseason superstars win. So Miami sweeps and gets the much anticipated matchup with the Celtics.

3. Boston Celtics vs. 6. New York Knicks

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NEW YORK - FEBRUARY 06: Ray Allen #20 of the Boston Celtics controls the ball against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on February 6, 2009 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or usin

No team is more upset that they miss the Heat in the first round than the Knicks because playing the Celtics is a completely different animal. Before the big trade for Carmelo, when the Knicks were good, the most they could manage were a pair of close losses (one by 4 and the other by 2). After the trade, when the Knicks weren't good, they managed to blow a double-digit second-half lead and lose by ten...in New York.

The theme is that the Celtics have owned this series, and don't be fooled by that last game of the season, neither team had anything to play for.

Prediction: Celtics in five. That is being generous and assuming that the Knicks pick up one game in New York, probably Game 4 to avoid the sweep, but this series won't really be close at all.

4. Orlando Magic vs. 5. Atlants Hawks

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ORLANDO, FL - DECEMBER 06: Dwight Howard #12 of the Orlando Magic drives against Zaza Pachulia #27 of the Atlanta Hawks during the game at Amway Arena on December 6, 2010 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by

So Atlanta won this series 3-1 in the regular season leading you to believe that the Hawks have a chance despite the Magic having homecourt.  Kirk Hinrich will add toughness against the Magic guards, Joe Johnson will be motivated to avenge last season's horrific destruction at the hands of the Magic, Josh Smith will stop taking dumb shots off isolations that weren't called for him, and Al Horford will eliminate Dwight Howard's rebounding and shot blocking presence by hitting 15-foot jumpers all series.

No, not really.

This is the playoffs. Kirk Hinrich is too slow to stop the Magic guards and he takes too many dumb shots. Joe Johnson is only motivated by money, which he got, so why should he care about the playoffs and what impact does he really play on his team's success? That was the biggest thing nobody talked about when he left Phoenix, that they never even missed a beat and the Hawks were the same joke team they had been.

Josh Smith will always take dumb shots and that isolation was called for him because he called it when he got the ball. Who cares that he is one of the best power dunkers in the NBA when he's taking that 20-foot fadeaway jumper? Al Horford will not negate anything about Dwight Howard because Stan Van Gundy knows something most of the NBA hasn't figured out. His team passes up open 11-footers to take contested three-pointers. He knows that mid-range shooters don't equal wins, and when your best inside post presence is also your most consistent jump shooter it means you aren't at the rim getting an offensive rebound, so shoot away.

Have you figured out how this series is gonna go? A bunch of Hawks fans throwing their TVs (or themselves) out the window as they realize, THIS IS YOUR TEAM FOR THE NEXT SIX YEARS, and at $21 million plus per year starting in 2013, isn't Joe Johnson worth it?

Prediction: Magic in five. I would call a sweep, but I have to account for the one game Dwight Howard will be suspended because he got a technical for complaining that ZaZa Pachulia coughed in his general direction casing Gilbert Arenas to take 30 shots that game. Is there another owner in the league hoping the new CBA lets him void one contract (like the last one did) more than the Hawks owner? I don't think so.

Bring on the Second Round

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MIAMI, FL - APRIL 10: Dwyane Wade #3 of the Miami Heat drives on Kevin Garnett #5 of the Boston Celtics during a game at American Airlines Arena on April 10, 2011 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloadi

Unlike in the West, where three of the bottom four seeds could pull upsets, the East is a bit more straight forward as the top four seeds are leaps and bounds better than the bottom four. Yes, the Hawks could pull an upset, but it doesn't seem likely.

The second round offers more intrigue.

Both the Celtics and Bulls won the season series against their opponents, yet both could be underdogs.

Can the Bulls continue their improbable run?

Will the Celtics and Heat live up to the hype?

What awaits us?

Stay tuned.