NFL 2011 Preview: Will the New Head Coaches Sink or Swim in Their First Year?

With Super Bowl XLV in the rearview mirror and the NFL and NFLPA labor uncertainty over the Collective Bargaining Agreement, we're stuck in a very awkward period.

The prevailing theory is that there will be a lockout, but only time will tell. For now, the mere thought of no football in 2011 is enough to make me nauseous. So I'll pretend that there'll be football next year for a few minutes of my time and yours, and offer up a very early preview of whether the new head coaches have a chance to succeed in 2011.

These are my thoughts.

Check out Erik Frenz's football curator page at myspace.com/football. Follow Erik on Twitter at  @e_frenz.

(Credit goes to FFToolbox.com for the draft order for each team)

Ron Rivera—Carolina Panthers

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

SAN DIEGO, CA - NOVEMBER 23: Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera of the San Diego Chargers looks on against the Indianapolis Colts during their NFL Game at Qualcomm Stadium on November 23, 2008 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Image

Draft picks (round/pick): 1/1, 3/1, 4/1, 5/1, 6/1

Although Rivera lead the Chicago Bears ('04-'06) and the San Diego Chargers ('08-'10) to No. 1 rankings in his tenure, he doesn't have as talented a roster as he had in either of those locations. The Bears ranked first in points against in 2006, and the Chargers ranked first in yards against this past year. 

He has proven, however, that he is a defensive mastermind that can get it done with both a 4-3 and a 3-4 front. One has to wonder mightily, though, what the results will be. He's a first-time head coach leading a team that needs serious rebuilding.

This is a franchise that was set back several years by the final few years of John Fox's tenure. Who knows what Rivera will do at quarterback—with Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore to choose from, he may just look another direction or he may see some potential in one of the two young guns.

With an offense and a defense that both ranked in the bottom 10 of the league, it's hard to imagine Rivera enjoying very much success, but anything is possible.

Prediction: Sink

Pat Shurmur—Cleveland Browns

Draft picks: 1/6, 2/5, 3/6, 4/5, 5/6, 6/3, 6/5

Mike Holmgren was very tenuous about bringing Eric Mangini back for a second year as head coach of the Cleveland Browns, but hired Pat Shurmur almost without hesitation. That should tell you something about how Holmgren feels for his new hire.

Shurmur has the pleasure of taking over a 5-11 team that, despite some holes, has plenty of talent left over to build around. From Peyton Hillis to Colt McCoy, all the way over to Joe Haden and TJ Ward on the other side of the ball, there are some pieces in place to build around.

Unlike some of the head coaches you'll see on this list, Shurmur isn't starting from scratch. And he has a "football czar" with an eye for talent. This marriage looks good from the start.

Prediction: Swim

John Fox—Denver Broncos

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ENGLEWOOD, CO - JANUARY 14: Denver Broncos head coach John Fox addresses the media at Dove Valley on January 14, 2011 in Englewood, Colorado. Fox was named the 14th head coach in Broncos history yesterday after spending the last nine seasons as head coac

Draft picks: 1/2, 2/4, 2/14, 3/3, 6/28, 7/2

Fox takes over a team that currently sits in an odd funk, with John Elway coming in to help with the decision-making process. In what fashion the triumvirate of Fox, Elway, and owner Pat Bowlen will work together remains a mystery.

One of the toughest decisions they may make, though, will come at quarterback. Do they pick up with Josh McDaniels' prospective QB of the future in Tim Tebow, or do they go with the more proven Kyle Orton?

The Broncos offense finished 19th overall, despite finishing seventh in pass attempts and yards. They also finished dead last on defense.

But this wouldn't be John Fox's first reclamation project. The Panthers finished with a 1-15 record the year before he took over, and they finished 7-9 the next year before finishing 11-5 and going to the Super Bowl in his second year. Still, this is a franchise that was set pretty far back in the McDaniels era, and has a lot of work to do as a whole to get back on track.

Prediction: Sink

Jason Garrett—Dallas Cowboys

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GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 25: Head coach Jason Garrett of the Dallas Cowboys watches from the sidelines during the NFL game against the Arizona Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium on December 25, 2010 in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals defeated

Draft picks: 1/9, 2/8, 3/7, 4/13, 5/12, 6/11, 7/17

After taking over the struggling 1-7 Cowboys from Wade Phillips, Jerry Jones was so impressed with Jason Garrett's 5-3 finish to the season that he decided to lift the "interim" tag from Garrett's head coach label. 

Whether Garrett can adequately fill that position for the foreseeable future remains to be seen, but the way the team played for him down the stretch even though the season was essentially over says something about how they feel for him.

He led the offense to the seventh overall ranking despite losing Tony Romo early on in the season, starting back-up Jon Kitna in his place. The defense, however, is a different story, and finished 31st in points against. They'll need to make some major adjustments in their defensive personnel if they want to change that. At least he has a full complement of draft picks to work with.

The Cowboys could rebound quickly under Garrett, or their defense could struggle even more than last year without their former leader. At this juncture, it's anyone's guess, but here's mine.

Prediction: Swim

Leslie Frazier—Minnesota Vikings

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

DETROIT, MI - JANUARY 02: Interim head coach Leslie Frazier of the Minnesota Vikings looks on from the bench while playing the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on January 2, 2011 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 20-13. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Gett

Draft picks: 1/12, 2/11, 4/9, 5/8, 5/19, 6/7, 7/12

Leslie Frazier is probably pondering what he's going to do at quarterback. To Joe Webb, or not to Joe Webb? That is the question. And it doesn't seem to be a very tough one. The question is, is there a better option available to the Vikings?

The team ranked 26th in passing offense and 29th in points scored, so they'd better hope so. Even though they have the game's most talented running back in Adrian Peterson and one of the best young explosive receivers in Percy Harvin, those two guys alone aren't enough. In fact, major work is needed on the entire offensive line, which was so weak in pass protection that even iron man Brett Favre missed a game due to injuries he sustained from one of their many breakdowns over the 2010 season.

The defense wasn't what it was in 2009, either, and an aging front will have to be replenished sooner than later.

The collapse of the roof at the Metrodome was symbolic of the Vikings' season, and it won't be as easy as patching up the roofing to fix. It may take some time, but Frazier has a vote of confidence from his former mentor Tony Dungy. He will do good things for the Vikings franchise.

Prediction: Swim

Hue Jackson—Oakland Raiders

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ALAMEDA, CA - JANUARY 18: New Oakland Raiders coach Hue Jackson pauses as he speaks to reporters during a press conference on January 18, 2011 in Alameda, California. Hue Jackson was introduced as the new coach of the Oakland Raiders, replacing the fired

Draft Picks: 2/16, 3/17, 4/16, 5/17, 6/16, 7/16

Slowly but surely throughout the tenure of Tom Cable, the Oakland Raiders have lifted themselves from the ashes. In fact, they posted their first non-losing season since they went to the Super Bowl in 2002. Will Hue Jackson pick up where Cable left off, or has the change in leadership steered the Raiders ship off-track once again?

Only time will tell, but at least he has a quarterback controversy involving some signal-callers who can at least manage the game, not to mention a game-breaking running back who is finally hitting stride three years removed from college.

As the offensive coordinator, Jackson did some exceptional work, taking a team of track athletes to the sixth rank in the league in points scored. Still, the 20th-ranked defense got even more questionable with the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha. Clearly, there is still work to be done, and the Raiders don't even have their first-round pick to get started.

And we all know who Hue Jackson works for and who signs those checks, and we all know he's not the easiest guy to work for.

Prediction: Sink

Jim Harbaugh—San Francisco 49ers

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JANUARY 07: Jim Harbaugh speaks at a press conference where he was introduced as the new San Francisco 49ers head coach at the Palace Hotel on January 7, 2011 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Draft picks: 1/7, 2/13, 3/12, 4/11, 4/18, 4/33, 5/10, 6/9, 6/25, 6/38, 7/7, 7/8, 7/34

In beginning a rebuilding project, a first-time head coach couldn't ask for more than the most draft picks of any team in the league. Give a guy enough darts to throw and no matter how new he is, one of them is bound to hit the board. Hitting a bullseye, now that takes some talent.

One has to wonder what he'll do at quarterback, where the Smiths (not the band) have fuddled in mediocrity for years (okay, maybe it applies to the band). It is probably time to move on from those projects. This is Harbaugh's chance to really put his brand on the team.

We all know how young head coaches have done recently, but with this being Jim Harbaugh's first NFL gig, we'll have to wait and see if his coaching ability matches his recruiting ability.

Their offense is loaded with draft picks from the past five years, but was largely a disappointment last year and finished ranked 24th in the league. Their dense fared better and finished 16th in points against, but with several aging veterans and a big-time free agent to sign in Aubrayo Franklin, the 49ers have their share of decision making to do in 2011.

Prediction: Swim

Mike Munchak—Tennessee Titans

Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images

ATLANTA - AUGUST 22: Offensive line coach Mike Munchak of the Tennessee Titans watches play against the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome on August 22, 2008 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

Draft picks: 1/8, 2/7, 3/13, 4/12, 5/11, 6/10, 7/9

As only the second head coach of the Tennessee Titans, Munchak has some big shoes to fill. Luckily, he has most of his draft picks. He is known for his ability to get the most out of his guys, having worked with mostly players who weren't selected in the first round in his time as offensive line coach.

As for a quarterback, he doesn't have one, but doesn't seem afraid of that idea, essentially saying that the ship has sailed on Vince Young and that their situation at quarterback will depend upon who's available.

One has to wonder how much of Bud Adams' decision was based on his idea of Munchak as a "yes man". It's fairly safe to say if the football decisions are left to someone other than Bud Adams.

Munchak has a lot of work to do, taking over a team that started hot but crashed and burned after a 5-2 start to finish 6-10. As a first-time head coach, I wouldn't be surprised if it took him a little time to right the ship.

Prediction: Sink