2011 Projections No. 27: Why Adam Wainwright Is Better Than Lincecum & Hernandez

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the last two years, Adam Wainwright has established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in fantasy baseball.

His three-year averages in wins (17), BB/9 (2.36), ERA (2.68) and WHIP (1.14) are all better than those of Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez.

Since 2007 (Wainwright’s first full season in the majors), the towering right-hander has improved on his formerly average strikeout and walk rates:

Strikeout Rate

• 2007: 6.06 K/9
• 2008: 6.20 K/9
• 2009: 8.19 K/9
• 2010: 8.32 K/9

Walk Rate

• 2007: 3.12 BB/9
• 2008: 2.32 BB/9
• 2009: 2.55 BB/9
• 2010: 2.19 BB/9

In 2010, Wainwright was the only pitcher in baseball to record a value of 10 runs above average with three different pitchers (fastball, slider, curveball); in fact, Wainwright’s curveball was the best in the majors last season, checking in at 22.4 runs above average.

Looking forward to 2011, there’s nothing to suggest a letdown. A tiny regression to the mean from his 2010 ERA of 2.42 may be in order, but it shouldn’t be a big one.

Expect another dominant performance from the 29-year-old in 2011.

	IP	W	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WHIP
2010 stats	230.1	20	8.32	2.19	2.42	1.05
3-year average	198.2	17	7.80	2.36	2.68	1.14
2011 FBI Forecast	220	18	8.40	2.30	2.70	1.17

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• No. 21: Dustin Pedroia
• No. 22: Chase Utley
• No. 23: Ryan Zimmerman
• No. 24: Jose Reyes
• No. 25: Josh Hamilton
• No. 26: Shin-Soo Choo

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options