San Francisco 49ers' 2011 Draft and the QB Hunt: The Big Four and the Other Guys
The three wise men shown here will be charged with finding the next 49ers quarterback.
Specifically, Jed York promoted Trent Baalke to general manager in order to land Jim Harbaugh, who can theoretically find and groom the next winning passer for the red and gold.
Alex Smith, the mild-mannered former first-overall draft pick from 2005, possibly shell-shocked from a catharsis of premature play for defense-oriented coaches and a revolving door of offensive coordinators, is a free agent, and likely headed for a change of scenery.
The new head coach, however, has praised Smith as a player and as a person. Matt Maiocco reported a couple weeks ago via CSNbayarea.com:
"I've been studying Alex Smith and watching him, and I believe that Alex Smith can be a winning quarterback in the National Football League," Harbaugh said. "I'm excited to work with him, get to know him.
"And, ultimately, he has to make a decision because he's an unrestricted free agent right now. What is his vision for himself? Does that include the San Francisco 49ers in that vision?"
Does this mean Alex Smith could return to the red and gold in 2011?
Not really, although Harbaugh and the 49ers will have sole negotiating rights to Smith until March 3rd.
For speculative purposes, there's a chance Harbaugh believes he can take Smith to the next level, and make him a winner in the NFL.
For the reality seekers, there's a snowball's chance in LA that Smith wants to return to where his career got off to a miserable start, and where he has been all but booed out of town by 49ers fans.
Then again, Smith may believe in Harbaugh's tutelage, and the potential consistency of Jim's five-year deal with the 49ers is reason to consider staying in San Francisco.
That and the great weather; but don't gasp, scream, or hold your breath.
As Maiocco puts it, "Harbaugh might determine he wants Smith on his roster, all right. But the final say belongs to Smith."
The reality is that the 49ers will be taking a long, hard look at the 2011 rookie quarterback class, and they will undoubtedly draft at least one QB this April.
Tune to SportsNet Central at 6, 10:30 and midnight on Comcast SportsNet Bay Area for more on this story.
In Smith's Wake,the Big 4 Stand Out.
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Wherever Smith ends up, be it Chicago, Arizona, Denver, Detroit, or Canada, the 49ers are moving forward with youth.
They could possibly sign Smith to a short-term deal, but even then they would (in all probability) draft a rookie passer for Harbaugh to tailor his offensive scheme to.
Thus, the franchise moves on, and looking at the 2011 quarterback class, the top passers are currently divided into two distinct groups: the Big 4, and the Other Guys.
The Big 4:
Blaine Gabbert—6'5—235—Missouri
Cam Newton—6'6—250—Auburn
Jake Locker—6'3—230—Washington
Ryan Mallet—6'7—238—Arkansas
Big 4: Blaine Gabbert
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Big Blaine Gabbert seemed to come out of nowhere when he decided to forgo his senior season and enter the draft this year.
Since Gabbert wasn't on the radar for most of the 2010 season, people are wondering what the big attraction is.
After all, Gabbert played in a spread offense, sails throws to the sideline and has questions floating around his work ethic and general athleticism.
The mere fact that Gabbert chose to come out early for a year light in top-tier draft picks sends up red flags.
The young man has displayed a strong arm, however. Gabbert has shown a quick release that routinely delivers strike passes to receivers on the numbers, and splits safeties in cover-two situations.
He stands tall in the pocket at 6'5, and is said to have a studious personality, and a strong locker room presence.
Gabbert threw for 434 yards and a touchdown (and rand for another one) against Iowa in the Insight Bowl, but he threw two interceptions, the second of which iced the game in an upset loss to the Hawkeyes.
The Big 4: Cam Newton
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Cam Newton is the big guy who wins the big ones. In 2010, he won all of them, and engineered some impressive come-from-behind victories in the process.
He won the Heisman Trophy, and the NCAA National Championship.
There's really not a mountain closer to the top of the world for him to climb at the college level.
Cam should come out of the combine with the most impressive numbers of any quarterback, but much like Tim Tebow in last year's draft, his ability to adapt to the NFL will be called into question.
There's no doubting that Cam has the physical tools to be an NFL quarterback, but his release, drop backs, and coverage reading need polish.
Newton didn't look amazing in the BSC National Championship Game, but he did lead Auburn to victory. Besides, Oregon was focused on him for most of the game, and he did lead the Tigers to a plethora of come-from-behind wins on their way to the title over the season.
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Big 4: Jake Locker
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Jake Locker, as many know, was thought to be the first overall draft pick of the 2010 draft.
A rough senior season derailed his chances at the top spot, however. Locker flashes very impressive speed, but his accuracy has not been sharp as of late, and his durability has come into question.
Throwing on the run has been Locker's forte, but as a pocket passer he needs fine tuning.
Agility and foot speed will highlight his combine numbers, and if Locker has a tremendous pro-day as Sam Bradford did last year, he could shoot up to the top of the first round.
Though his numbers were not amazing in the Holiday Bowl, Locker played an impressively gritty game against a tough Nebraska Black Shirts defense—the same Nebraska defense that had beat him and his Washington Huskies up earlier in the year.
Big 4: Ryan Mallett
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Finally, there's Ryan "Big Tex" Mallett.
Big Tex has clouded potential. At a towering 6'7, Mallett is a rare specimen. Though his height gives him special field vision, his athleticism is rather one-dimensional.
There's a certain swagger to Mallett, which could go two ways. Confidence is a must for an NFL quarterback, and playing with an attitude where the endzone is your birthright can go a long way.
On the other hand, cocky players who feel entitled to success without working hard for it seldom make it very far before the world catches up with them.
Mallett's size is double-edged. Being able to see over NFL linemen and raising the initial angle of passing lanes with his release makes his throws far less likely to be batted.
If his work ethic is NFL-caliber, he should be able to solidify the musculature on his big frame and become a big moose to bring down.
A 6'7 quarterback can't be expected to have the quickest feet in the world, though. What are those, size 19-and-a-half?
Nevertheless, his long stride, and some experience playing under center, allow him decent-paced drop backs that Harbaugh may be able to refine. His play-action sales aren't too shabby either.
Mallett steps up in the pocket, or slides to buy time, and he'll take a hit to deliver a clean pass. He's also a natural risk taker, which is essentially the opposite of what was said about Alex Smith.
Some critics do not like his delivery, which seems unorthodox. CBSSports.com might have said it best though:
"Takes most of his snaps out of the shotgun, though he has shown the ability to drop back from center. Gains depth due to the length of his gait rather than foot quickness. Though his long arm makes for an awkward-looking windup, Mallett possesses a fluid, over-the-top release that generates momentum, resulting in the ball exploding out of his hand. Steps into his throws when he has room in the pocket, but loses accuracy when forced to rely solely on his arm."
The delivery did look effective in the Razorbacks' Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State. Most of Mallett's throws were very catchable and on target, but his receivers seemed to come down with a case of stone hands that day.
Mallett finished the game 24 of 47 for 277 yards, with two touchdowns and an interception in a 31-26 loss.
The Other Guys
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Joe Montana was a third-round draft pick.
Joe Theisman was a fourth rounder.
Steve Young was plucked from the USFL by Tampa Bay in a supplementary draft.
Matt Hasselbeck, Mark Rypien, and Tom Brady were sixth round picks.
Kurt Warner and Tony Romo went undrafted.
Johnny Unitas was a ninth-round selection, and Bart Starr was found in the 17th.
Even Brett Favre, Drew Brees and Kenny Stabler fell to the early (not so early in Stabler's case) second round.
Heck, Roger Staubach was a tenth rounder with a military commitment that forced him to enter the league as a 27 year-old rookie.
Of course, the natural first-round counterpoints here are Joe Namath, Bob Griese, Len Dawson, Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, Jim McMahon, Phil Simms, John Elway, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, Doug Williams, Michael Vick, Peyton/Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rogers.
Even Trent Dilfer (typically agreed upon as the worst quarterback ever to win a Super Bowl) was a first round selection, and new 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh was the 26th pick of the 1987 draft.
But then there's the Jamarcus Russells, the Ryan Leafs, and the Jim Druckenmillers.
Dare I say it, the Alex Smiths and David Carrs?
It's really not fair to put the vast majority of mid-to-late-round passers on the level with Joe Cool, but the number of reasonably successful quarterbacks who were not first-round picks means attention should always be paid to the young arms who get the cold shoulder from teams on day one.
You know—The Other Guys:
Christian Ponder—6'2"—222—Florida State
Colin Kaepernick—6'5"—225—Nevada
Andy Dalton—6'2"—213—TCU
Ricky Stanzi—6'4"—221—Iowa
Scott Tolzein—6'2"—213—Wisconsin
Pat Devlin—6'4"—227—Delaware
Greg McElroy—6'2"—222—Alabama
Tyrod Taylor—6'1"—215—Virginia Tech
Other Guy: Christian Ponder
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Christian Ponder has impressed people in several aspects. His high-set, over-the-top motion is balanced and produces very accurate passes underneath.
Florida State ran a pro-style offense, and although he's not blessed with dominant arm strength, Ponder can zip a ball with touch, and he hits his receivers in stride.
His 4.68 speed isn't blinding, but servicable.
He's not afraid to plant his feet and take a hit to make a throw, but he'll need to be more cautious when scrambling at the NFL level to avoid getting creamed like spinach, as his 6'2", 222-pound frame isn't made for a demolition derby, and he's not exactly an elusive runner.
Ponder left the game early in the second quarter of the 2010 Chick-fil-A Bowl with a concussion, finishing a mere one-for-five passing for a whopping six yards.
Other Guy: Colin Kaepernick
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Colin Kaepernick is a tall arm with wheels.
The showcasing of his talent at Nevada has been hard to gauge, as is typical in the WAC. Complicating an appraisal of Kaepernick even more however, is the unorthodox offense he commanded for the Wolf Pack: Chris Ault's pistol.
Kaepernick has been on the rise in the eyes of scouts recently, though. Starting out as a projected sixth or seventh rounder, Kaepernick is now being mentioned in third round conversation.
Much of this can be attributed to some solid Senior Bowl practice sessions that showed he has been working on his drop backs.
Additionally, Kaepernick at one point was throwing passes alongside Jake Locker, and was the more accurate of the two.
He'll be a long-term project regardless, but Kaepernick is already advancing quickly among this years rookies, and he's quite a raw piece of quarterback meat for some NFL team to season.
Against a tough Boston College defense, Kaepernick managed an adequate 20 completions out of 33 attempts for 192 yards, a touchdown and a pick. The Wolf Pack hung on to win 20-13.
Other Guys: Andy Dalton
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Andy Dalton led TCU to an undefeated season this year, including a big win over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. But he is yet another (yes, another) quarterback who took most of his college snaps out of the shotgun.
His drop backs did look more polished around the Senior Bowl, however, and Dalton has been working hard to refine his physical abilities and throwing motions in preparation for the combine and pro day, essentially since the Rose Bowl victory.
Specifically, Dalton will need to continue refining his long-ball throws, as that is an area of his game that was seldom utilized in College.
In that Rose Bowl victory, Dalton completed a very efficient 15 of 23 passes for 217 yards and a touchdown. Dalton was also TCU's leading rusher in the contest with nine charges for 28 yards and another touchdown.
Other Guy: Pat Devlin
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Are spread offense quarterbacks a dime-a-dozen these days?
Because here we find yet another highly-touted passer with questions as to his abilities under center, and with eyes that stick to receivers.
Pat Devlin puts good touch on his passes from a smooth, compact throwing motion, but can toss up the occasional chaotic wobble-ball. He does plant his feet nicely on most throws, and thus unloads the ball quickly. Devlin's over-the-top delivery also allows him to drive balls downfield and zip out quick passes when an under man is wide open.
The Delaware Fighting Blue Hens don't do BCS, but Devlin did lead them to a berth in the FCS National Championship...where they lost to Eastern Washington 20-19.
Devlin was 22 of 34 passing, with one pick in the contest.
Other Guy: Ricky Stanzi
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Stanzi, on the other hand, has experience in a pro-style offense, and it shows in his instincts. Stanzi hit underneath routes repeatedly in Senior Bowl practice.
He doesn't have the arm strength of a Colin Kaepernick or the foot speed of Jake Locker, but his maturity in keeping a poker face against a defense is already showing.
Scouts took note of Stanzi looking off safeties on out routes in Senior Bowl practice, which should be a fresh change from the sticky-eyed spread quarterbacks flooding the top tiers of the draft.
Stanzi also has a prototypical 6'4, 230-pound frame, which should entice a team looking for a pocket passer.
He showcased his leadership and guts in a 27-24 win over Missouri in the Insight Bowl, though his numbers (11-21, 200 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT) dictate that he was not Iowa's key weapon in the contest.
Other Guy: Scott Tolzein
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Scott Tolzien is another middle-tier passer from a pro-style offense. He was the nation's most accurate passer, and a very mistake-free quarterback at that.
Tolzien holds school records in pass percentage and efficiency rating. Another impressive statistic: he threw just nine interceptions in his last 18 games, and never more than one in any of those games.
Behind Wisconsin's powerful o-line and vicious running attack, Tolzien was surgical with play-action passes, a skill that should benefit him at the next level.
In spite of the 21-4 record Tolzein posted, the Badgers offense was kept in check during a 21-19 Rose Bowl loss to a swarming TCU defense. Tolzien was a quiet 12 of 21 on the day, with no touchdowns or picks.
Other Guy: Greg McElroy
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McElroy's thirst for championship hardware seems to have begun in high school, where he won a national title, and more importantly, a Texas 5A State Championship.
Naturally, the trend continued in college, where he took the Crimson Tide to the promised land in 2009-10.
One problem for McElroy: it seems like a German Shepherd could lead the talent-stocked Alabama teams of the last two years. Between Julio Jones, Mark Engram, and their massive defense, there's not a huge need for an elite passer.
Another knock on McElroy is a quirk in his throwing motion that turns the ball out 180 degrees before the elbow gets moving forward. He's kind of like a right-handed Tim Tebow without the physical giftedness and "chosen one" hoopla.
The biggest question surrounding McElroy: can he work out the kink in his motion before Alabama's pro day?
Kinked motion and all, McElroy was an ultra-efficient 17 of 19 passing for 220 yards and a score in the Florida Citrus Bowl during a 49-7 rout of ninth-ranked Michigan State.
Other Guy: Tyrod Taylor
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The attraction of Tyrod Taylor is that of a right-handed Michael Vick with slightly less speed and elusiveness. This has him looking like a sixth rounder this year.
Taylor's speed is projected in the 4.5 range, but you might want to watch the combine for a more precise measurement.
He doesn't have ideal height for an NFL passer (6'1", 215 pounds) but neither did Mike Vick or even Drew Brees for that matter, at a flat six feet each.
Jim Harbaugh got a preliminary scouting session of Taylor before he even knew he was going to be the 49ers head coach. Coaching against Taylor in the Orange Bowl, Harbaugh had the best seat in the house to see Tyrod's fancy footwork on an eleven-yard touchdown pass.
Stanford then quieted Taylor down for the rest of the night, and the Cardinal rolled to a 40-12 victory.
Taylor finished with 16 completions in 31 attempts for 222 yards, with a touchdown and an interception.
Honerable Mentions
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Andrew Luck is the model of perfection here. Relaxed eyes scanning the coverage, balanced shoulders, two hands intentionally griping the pigskin, and flowing footwork? Behold: Jim Harbaugh's signature on an already talented passer.
If Luck had declared draft-eligible this year, 49ers fans would be speculating that he might pull an Eli Manning and refuse to play for Carolina, then get traded to the 49ers.
Wake up!
That's not happening. None of it is.
The big opportunity now is for the 49ers to take a quarterback (or two) that Harbaugh sees something in, and believes can be developed into an NFL franchise player.
In the interest of being thorough, there are always more rocks to look under. Look under enough of them and you might see some of these prospect passers:
Jerrod Johnson—6'5"—250—Texas A&M
Taylor Potts—6'4"—222—Texas Tech
T.J. Yates—6'3"—220—North Carolina
Ben Chappell—6'2"—242—Indiana
Nathan Enderle—6'5"—242—Idaho
Mitch Mustain—6'2"—200—USC
Mike Hartline—6'5"—210—Kentucky
Not everybody gets their name called that weekend.
Summation and Opinion
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Harbaugh and Baalke are going to be coordinating a tune-up and overhaul the 49ers desperately need this offseason, and it's time to put faith in both of them.
They are the paid experts, after all.
Alex Smith is not entirely out of the picture, but as the team moves forward at the quarterback position, the 49ers would be wise to look to the past to avoid future mistakes.
What has been Alex Smith's issue? An unorthodox spread offense in college, and extremely limited experience under center are popular factors. The fact that he was never set up to succeed, at first with inept personnel, and later with a flood of varying coaching systems, certainly has played a part as well.
And then there's the old small-hands argument.
The small-handed theory has seen evidence on both sides, but it is certainly one more precaution for the 49ers to take heading into the draft. There's now way Mallet, Newton of Kaepernick have small hands, is there?
It's easier to find lowlights than highlights of Alex these days.
The biggest lesson to be had from the 2005-2010 Alex Smith Experiment is probably that against drafting a quarterback in the first round.
The seventh overall pick is a good one, and the player San Francisco drafts will command a large paycheck. It's important to get a player they believe can make a difference from day one, and although there's a possibility one of the top prospects is completely pro-ready, the pass defense needs to be addressed and an impact player can (and should) be taken initially.
One of the top-round prospects will fall to the second round; I've seen it in my crystal beer stein that tells the future.
After turning my eyes square on YouTube trying to make sense of the football position I understand the least, who do I like now? Which quarterback would I like to fall into a red and gold uniform this April?
Andrew Luck. Oh yeah, that's not happening.
Ryan Mallett.
Wait! What? Yeah...
The conclusion surprises even myself.
Locker has great foot speed. Cam is a juggernaut. Even Gabbert has long-term potential.
Mallett, however, has shown me both the coachable and the uncoachable—and he's basically the antithesis of an Alex Smith.
Mallett is not going to woo many (if any) scouts at the combine.
Some people are even anticipating a record low Wonderlic score. He's played at two competitive colleges (including Jim Harbaugh's and Tom Brady's alma mater, Michigan) but has never been a team captain. And in March of 2009, Mallett was arrested for public intoxication.
These knocks ought to drop Mallett to the 49ers in the second round, but if they trade back up into the late first to get him, that's not the end of the world either.
And if Mallett is gone, there are still a plethora of serviceable mid-round options. In order, I like Locker (if he drops to round two) Ponder, Stanzi, Kaepernick, and Tolzien. They're not going to burst into the league and assault the record books, but they're players who, if given the right marinade and time, can be long-term solutions to the 49ers' passing woes.
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