NBA Playoff Predictions: If the Postseason Started Today, Who Wins NBA Finals?
We've finally made it to the halfway point in the NBA season and we've more than sorted out the bad teams, the okay teams, the good teams and the great teams.
I think it's safe to say that the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Minnesota Timberwolves won't be joining us come playoff time, but over half the league will be joining us come May.
Sadly, a few of them will be under .500 and if you've read anything I've written about the Seattle Seahawks making the NFL playoffs as a sub .500 team then you know exactly how I feel about teams under .500 making the playoffs.
As always, these predictions are based upon the current state of team and not where they could be when the playoffs hit.
(1) Boston Celtics Vs. (8) Charlotte Bobcats
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A couple years ago Captain Jack and a ragtag bunch of young players shocked the world and defeated the number one seed in the West, the Dallas Mavericks.
That's not going to happen this year and sadly for Stephen Jackson and company, they can look forward to being swept in the first round again and collecting a couple of extra pay checks.
Boston wins series 4-0
(2) Chicago Bulls Vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers
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The Bulls are a little banged up, but they possibly have the best player in the NBA on their team and running point guard in Derrick Rose.
Now don't get all mad at me for saying that he is possibly the best player in the NBA right now. There are about six other guys that you could toss into that sentence and it would make sense and you can argue it.
Derrick Rose is the best point guard in the NBA though and that's not really up for discussion.
The Philadelphia 76ers are doing themselves no favors by making the playoffs. They need another lottery pick and getting swept in the first round by the Bulls doesn't help them get there, but does get them a better draft pick than a Western Conference team.
Did you know that Elton Brand has been in the league for 12 years now?
Bulls win series 4-0
(3) Miami Heat Vs. (6) New York Knicks
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The New York Knicks are not scared of the Miami Heat and the Miami Heat could care less.
The difference between these two teams is that one is built to win a championship and the other isn't quite there yet.
The Heat are missing a quality big man. Chris Bosh isn't a quality big man; he was about to get his butt whooped by Durant yesterday and I think Durant would have done so had they thrown down. Which means Amare Stoudemire who loves to prey on weak big men is going to have a big, big series and no one is going to be able to stop him
That is where the Knicks run out positives.
They are a very young roster and they put up about as much resistance as the Canadian Military.
LeBron and Wade are going to kill the Knicks outside and Eddie House may knock down a big shot or two.
Heat win series 4-2
(4) Orland Magic Vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks
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I asked Dwight Howard what he thought about taking on the Hawks again in the playoffs and if you look left that is the face he made before he walked off.
That's the face I would make too.
The Hawks are such a bi-polar team and Joe Johnson hasn't be quite right this year. They have no point guards and may have to rely on Marvin Williams to play a big role in the playoff games.
If you ever have to say that sentence you should get the Dwight Howard Face and be swept in the playoffs.
Also, this could be the last ever home game for the Hawks in Atlanta. Hawks ownership just recently made it possible to move the team without a fight from anyone. That's what happens when you lack a lease and have idiot owners.
Magic win series 4-0
(1) San Antonio Spurs Vs. (8) Portland Trailblazers
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Don't piss off Greg Popovich.
His team has been overlooked the past couple of years. It's been all about the Lakers, Celtics, Heat, Thunder, Magic, Bulls, Nuggets, Blazers and Blake Griffin.
His team is playing with a huge chip on their shoulder and it's showing.
Their reward is playing a Portland team that is trying to set the world record for most knee surgeries in a single basketball season.
Portland will be kind of feisty, but won't win a game and head into an off season full of questions and very few clear answers. Maybe a lockout will help their thought process.
San Antonio wins series 4-0
(2) Los Angeles Lakers Vs. (7) Utah Jazz
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The Lakers have been terrible in supposed big games this year. They've been crushed by Boston, Miami and San Antonio so far this season and split the season series with Chicago.
When you're 1-4, having issues with good teams, having suffered an embarrassing loss to the Kings at home recently and just look like a bad team for stretches during a game consistently is a little troubling and you could make a case for a big first round upset here.
That is unless the team you're playing is the Utah Jazz.
The Jazz are doing their absolute best to play themselves out of the playoffs right now and for the most part have been a horrible basketball team. I'm not sure exactly what is wrong with them, but with the players they have you just don't expect this from a Jerry Sloan coached basketball team.
Los Angeles wins series 4-1
(3) Dallas Mavericks Vs. (6) Denver Nuggets
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After a bad stretch with the injuries to Dirk and Butler, the Mavs have won four in a row and are playing some decent basketball right now. J.J. Barea and Jason Terry have been absolutely deadly coming off the bench in recent games and well...Dirk is Dirk and no one can stop him.
No one.
Dallas is much better defensively this year and Tyson Chandler is the reason for that. He wipes out a lot of mistakes in front of him and cleans up the boards better than any other center Dallas has ever had.
The Nuggets are an interesting team to me. They are so full of talent that they could easily blow by everyone in the league and win a championship.
That Carmelo wants a trade, though, is absolutely killing this team's chemistry and something needs to happen. He needs to be traded or sign the extension.
Dallas wins series 4-1
(4) Oklahoma City Thunder Vs. (5) New Orleans Hornets
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Chris Paul is not himself and is playing a step or two slower, but it hasn't deterred his effectiveness at all. He still makes plays and is absolutely killing it from behind the arc, hitting at almost a 46% clip. That's very impressive.
David West and Emeka Okafor are doing a pretty good job at keeping things clean down low and really benefit from Chris Paul's selflessness and are more than happy to take a pass and add an assist to Paul's stats.
The Hornets lack a true shooting guard and that could hurt them, but so do the Thunder.
OKC has one of the most dynamic players in the league in Kevin Durant and a very good player in Russell Westbrook who scores a lot of point, dishes a lot of assists and rebounds pretty well.
OKC has no size and can't match-up well with West or Okafor.
The X-Factor in this series is going to be Westbrook.
17.2 No Pass Possessions since the start of the year for Westbrook. That means he doesn't pass the ball once at all during a possession and that doesn't count fast break baskets.Also 8.6 of those times Westbrook puts up a shot with more than 18 seconds on the shot clock and is shooting under 35% in those situations.
There are moments when Westbrook seems to keep the ball away from Durant in the clutch and goes for his numbers.
New Orleans wins series 4-2
(1) Boston Celtics Vs. (4) Orlando Magic
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Kendrick Perkins is going to be a key factor in this whole series. If he can keep Dwight off the boards and keep him honest offensively, Boston is going to win this series easily. Orlando can't match-up with Boston at the other positions.
Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen are going to absolutely feast on their Magic counterparts for this series. Orlando isn't that great defensively out on the perimeter and that is going to kill them during this series.
I think Boston jumps out big like they did last year, lets their foot off the gas a bit, then finishes off the Magic.
Boston wins series 4-2
(2) Chicago Bulls Vs. (3) Miami Heat
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For this series, missing Noah isn't going to hurt as much as people think. He'd keep Bosh in check for the most part, but Bosh seems to do that just fine on his own.
The real battle is going to be between Dwayne Wade and Derrick Rose as your main event, with Deng vs. James as the co-main event.
For Miami to win the series they have to win both of those match-ups because they can't win any of the other ones. Their bigs aren't as good as Chicago's and their bench isn't nearly as productive.
It's a hard to predict a series and I literally went to seven coin tosses. Chicago was heads.
Chicago wins series 4-3
(1) San Antonio Spurs Vs. (5) New Orleans Hornets
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These teams have already played each other all four times and split the series 2-2.
San Antonio was more impressive in their wins blowing out the Hornets twice, while New Orleans squeaked out a couple of victories.
That was the regular season and both these teams are absolutely hot right now.
It's hard to go against Tim Duncan in the post and Manu Ginobili on the on the wing. Tony Parker could destroy Paul on his gimpy knee, but looking at it on paper makes you lean toward San Antonio in a sweep.
I don't think this is going to come down to the paper and stats and it could down to heart and desire. Both teams are absolutely full of it and seem to make big plays when they need to.
I almost went to the coin on this one too, but can't let fate decide too many series.
San Antonio wins series 4-3
(2) Los Angeles Lakers Vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks
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The Lakers are the defending champs and it is so hard to win three in a row, especially when the other team you're playing hasn't ever won one.
The Mavs have won the only meeting between the two teams this year and the Lakers just don't look good right now. Gasol is off, Kobe is going into full on ball hog mode, Artest doesn't have it anymore and Bynum isn't reliable.
Can this whole series for the Lakers boil down to Lamar Odom?
It could, but it won't.
Dallas is going to own the Lakers inside with Chandler; Dirk is going to make Gasol play defense and wear him down throughout the game and making him useless during crunch time; Artest will get kicked out of a game and be a total non factor.
Dirk is going to have a big series and this is going to be over a lot quicker than most think.
Dallas wins series 4-1
Eastern Conference Finals: Boston Celtics Vs. Chicago Bulls
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The Bulls-Celtics probably put on the best first round series in the history of the new seven game series, possibly ever in any amount of first round games.
I really love how the match-ups work out for the most part.
Bulls get the point guard and bench, while Boston cleans up on everything else.
Not having Noah for this series would absolutely hurt Chicago in this round. They need a tough guy to bang with Garnett and let Boozer guard Perkins or Shaq, who are both not a threat offensively, allowing Boozer to concentrate on scoring points and not defense.
Rondo is going to want to prove to Rose that he's the best point guard in the game and going to play the whole series with a chip on his shoulder.
Pierce and Allen are going to want to get another ring on their finger because they know the odometer is about max out.
It's going to be a fun, physical and memorable series. Look for a couple of overtimes, some late game heroics from guys who we've never heard from before, and the big stars to step up in the clutch.
Big time Derrick Rose coming out party?
Almost.
Boston wins series 4-3
Western Conference Finals: San Antonio Spurs Vs. Dallas Mavericks
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If you thought Boston-Chicago was going to be an amazing series, this one could top it.
Spurs-Mavs have so much history together in the playoffs and it always seems that it comes down to one another to advance to the next round.
Tim Duncan is almost done, but his protegeé in Dejuan Blair is going to be an excellent replacement and is perfect for this team as their power forward with Duncan at Center. Manu is making a case to be league MVP.
Has anyone not named Manu made as many big shots or plays so far this season?
Dirk Nowitzki only has a great chance to make it all the way this year and it's not because of their offense; it's their defense and it comes down to Tyson Chandler.
Chandler has the potential to shut down Duncan and make this a very perimeter-oriented series, which plays into the Mavs' hands.
No one has the shooters like the Mavs and if they are hitting shots they can bounce the Spurs from the playoffs just like they did last year.
I'd love to give the bench edge to the Mavs because of Terry, Barea and Marion. All three of those guys could start for most other teams in the NBA.
Spurs have just as good of a bench, but no one name that just jumps out at you. Unless you count Gary Neal and that's only because he might have the most boring name in the NBA outside of Joe Smith.
San Antonio wins series 4-3
NBA Finals: Boston Celtics Vs. San Antonio Spurs
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Boston is 17-4 in NBA Finals appearances, while the Spurs are 4-0. Boston would love to get to their 18th championship while Popovich and Duncan are looking for the one for the thumb.
If you look at each team—starters, bench, coaches, organizations—it's a near draw.
Rondo vs. Parker is a very interesting match-up. Rondo is never going to destroy with his point production and Parker can put up 30 at a moments notice. Rondo is a better passer and defender but can't make a free throw to save his life. Parker just never seems to miss. I think Rondo is going to be able to keep Parker in check with his defense and make some big defensive stops late in games.
Winner: Rondo
Allen vs. Ginobili is another fantastic match-up. Both can score. Ginobili is the slightly better defender and tends to rise to the occasion in big games, but recently we've seen Allen drop off, with last year's Finals as a prime example. Ginobili seems to be on another planet right now and seems unstoppable. Big shots, big stops.
Winner: Ginobili
Pierce vs. Jefferson is about the biggest discrepancy on the court because Richard Jefferson isn't quite the player Pierce is and Pierce seems to have out of body experiences in the NBA Finals. Jefferson has never been a great big game player, at least in my memory, but he is having a very complementary year for the Spurs and seems to have found his proper role on this team. Pierce is far, far better though.
Winner: Pierce
Garnett vs. Blair should lean toward Garnett. Garnett has been there before, won and climbed back to the top of the mountain only to lose. Blair hasn't tasted a championship since high school and doesn't know what it's like. He's so young and just not on KG's level... yet.
Winner: Garnett
Shaq vs. Duncan is no match-up. Duncan continues to prove why he is one of the greatest players of all time. Shaq is not Shaq anymore. He's slow, out of shape and just can't keep up with any low post players.
Winner: Duncan
If we look at the benches we have Nate Robinson, Glen Davis, Marquis Daniels, Kendrick Perkins and Von Wafer taking on George Hill, Gary Neal, Matt Bonner, Tiago Splitter and Antonio McDyess.
Boston's bench tends to be a little bit more offensive driven with Nate Robinson and Glen Davis. Perkins is a good defender, Davis is serviceable, but Von Wafer isn't going to come close to winning a defensive player of the year award on any level. The Spurs tend to be more defensive, but George Hill and Matt Bonner can score and McDyess still has a little burn in his tank. The difference is that Boston's bench has played for championships and San Antonio's really hasn't.
Winner: Boston's bench
Boston seems to have an obvious edge in most spots except for coaching. Popovich is a much better coach than Doc Rivers. Rivers has found his groove with this team, but has been fired in the past and was even rumored to be fired in Boston before the Big Three arrived. Popovich has never been threatened nor will he be. He makes the best in-game adjustments and always seems to know the right buttons to push at just the right times and he's perfectly hitting everything this year. Rivers sometimes struggles with in game adjustments and his teams on occasion come out flat (see Phoenix from Friday night).
Winner: Popovich
If you love pure basketball, then this is going to be the series for you. I don't think we'll have any of those game where one teams randomly blows out the other in game three or four, but we'll see seven games decided by five points or less. Lots of defense, lots of clutch scoring and defensive stops.
I'm very excited by the prospects of this series.
Boston wins series 4-3
