Detroit Lions Free Agency 2011: Should Cliff Avril Stay or Go?

You think this is an easy question, and maybe you're right. But it's not as clear-cut as it may seem.

Cliff Avril, over three seasons, has been perhaps Matt Millen's most successful draft pick, if you consider his production against his draft status.

Avril, a third-round draft selection out of Purdue in 2008, had a pretty decent year in 2008, a slightly better year in 2009 (though it seemed he'd regressed in an expanded role, his stats actually increased in less games played), and a breakout year in 2010.

Over the last three years as a Detroit Lion, Avril has notched 97 tackles, 19 sacks, and eight forced fumbles. Avril has made a name for himself as a young master of the sack-fumble.

And now his rookie contract has come down to the team option year. Pending a new collective bargaining agreement, Avril is a restricted free agent this year, and you have to wonder if some teams—especially those needing a strong pass-rusher—might come calling.

If that happens, the Lions will instinctively want to hold on to their young pass-rushing specialist, but should they?

2010 Performance

As mentioned before, Avril broke out in 2010, posting a career-high eight-and-a-half sacks. That's more than any Lions player since James Hall in 2004 (but still less than Ndamukong Suh's 10 this year).

Avril was a terror against quarterbacks all year, and really, that's been his M.O. for as long as he's been playing in Detroit.

But is he really that dominant as a pass-rusher? Avril posted his sack total over 13 starts, but Lawrence Jackson posted six sacks over 11 games and didn't get the start in any of them.

Turk McBride spent the majority of the year as a reserve as well, yet posted five sacks and three fumbles in eight starts.

Now include the fact that Avril is a notorious liability against the run, and his value comes into question. Ideally, with his skill set, Avril would be a third-down specialist, not an every-down player.

Of course, he is only entering his fourth year, and developing more discipline against the run is something that can be coached into him, if he's willing to listen.

Team Interest

Most likely, the Lions want to keep Avril. He is, oddly enough, one of the longest-tenured players still with the team, and his production has increased steadily each year.

In 2011, the Lions figure to field the most complete defense they've had in years, and Avril could come into his own as a cornerstone of one of the most dominant defensive fronts in football.

At the very worst, he remains a pretty good pass rusher at LDE.

But what if he starts getting offers from other teams? Because Avril is a restricted free agent, any team that wants to sign Avril away from the Lions has to commit giving a draft pick to the Lions to do it.

That's what makes things interesting. Avril has been a productive player, especially for a third-rounder, and a third-rounder in compensation would be the minimum of what the Lions are owed if Avril is signed away.

Avril for a third-rounder is certainly a more compelling case than the question of whether to let him walk away for nothing.

Certainly, there are better and worse selections to be made in the third round. The Avril pick came immediately after the Green Bay Packers selected budding superstar TE Jermichael Finley, but five picks after, the Lions took DT Andre Fluellen.

If the Lions let Avril go (assuming someone tenders him), they're effectively cashing in their chips and playing another round in the draft. Avril is far from a bad player, so there's no guarantee the Lions get someone at his approximate level if they take the pick.

Still, the Lions are doing okay with Jackson, McBride, a healthy Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Willie Young in the fold. If an offer is made on Avril, you can bet the Lions will at least consider it.

Player Interest

Avril should want, very much, to stay in Detroit at least for one more year.

There is no doubt that Avril is a pretty good football player. There is also very little doubt that Avril was made to look like a rock star by the circumstances around him.

Avril knows that he gets paid to sack the quarterback. And he also knows that with Ndamukong Suh next to him and Kyle Vanden Bosch on the opposite end, he is one of the opposing offensive line's lowest priorities.

He's not going to have a chance to put up those key stats anywhere like he is in Detroit, and that kind of quantifiable success is just what he needs right now.

Assuming the Lions hold onto him, Avril will be an unrestricted free agent in 2012, and what he does in 2011 is going to have a huge impact on how much cash he commands during that offseason, either from Detroit or elsewhere.

If you were a defensive end and you needed to put up big numbers in a contract year, where would you rather be: Detroit or Cincinnati?

Miscellaneous Factors

The Lions' decision to take a draft pick as compensation for Avril might be heavily influenced by the approximate value of that draft pick.

The current fare of players due for the draft in 2011 is widely considered one of the weakest in a decade. What little big-time talent there is in the draft figures to have thinned out by the third round.

Is Avril, a pretty good third-round pick even in a decent draft year, worth a second or third-round pick in a notoriously weak year?

Not likely. Look for the the Lions to match any offers on Avril unless somebody gets crazy and goes into the first-round bracket on their offer.