NFL Draft 2011: Predicting Sleeper Picks at Every Offensive Position
Why is it that we are so attracted to the NFL Draft? Is it the thrill of watching our favorite college players become stars? Is it the excitement of not knowing exactly what is going to happen? There are many different reasons, and some are more important to some than others. One thing is for sure, everybody loves the underdog story.
Finding a gem in the late rounds of the draft is something that everybody is interested in. The story of Tom Brady being selected in the sixth round with the 199th pick. Terrell Davis going in the sixth round with the 196th pick. Every year, there are players that slip past the radar and fall deep into the draft only to later become superstars.
Who will those players be this year?
Here is a list of two players that have the potential to be sleepers at every offensive position.
Offensive Tackle: Benjamin Ijalana (Nova) and Marcus Cannon (TCU)
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Benjamin Ijalana (Villanova)
It's unclear at this point as to whether or not Ijalana will be projected as a guard or a tackle in the NFL.
The 320 pound, 6'4” lineman is nothing less than a monster of a force on the offensive line. He started all 53 of his games at Villanova and helped lead the team to a FCS National Championship in 2009. He is a two-time first team All-American and the only player in the FCS that was on the watch list for the Outland Trophy Award.
Ijalana has excellent footwork for a tackle his size and still has the strength to get great push off the line of scrimmage.
He will be playing in the Senior Bowl this weekend and with a good performance could force some teams to look at him closely.
Marcus Cannon (Texas Christian)
At 6'5” and 350 pounds, Marcus Cannon is the biggest offensive lineman in the draft class. Remarkably, he is very gifted as an athlete even with his massive frame. TCU was sixth in the nation in fewest sacks allowed.
Cannon is very light on his feet, especially for a man of his size. The combination of this quickness and power has made him a force on the TCU offensive line for years. Teams may look at him as an interior lineman due to his larger frame, but Cannon has played well at tackle.
His only downside may be his quickness off the ball. This may be why teams are looking at him as more of an interior lineman.
Cannon is a very underrated prospect this year and is expected to be drafted in the second or third round.
Offensive Guard: John Moffitt (Wisc) and Will Rackley (Lehigh)
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John Moffitt (Wisconsin)
This season, Wisconsin absolutely dominated teams when running the football. Most of the time, credit is given to the running back. This isn't the case in Wisconsin.
James White rushed for 1,052 yards. John Clay rushed for 1,012 yards. Montee Ball rushed for 996 yards. With production like that, who do you give credit to? Easy, the offensive line.
Gabe Carimi is the player on the offensive line for Wisconsin that everybody is talking about. I'm impressed by John Moffitt.
Moffitt has the right body frame to play in the NFL. He has the power and the quickness to play in the NFL. The only question is on his technique, but that is something that can be taught at the next level.
Currently projected as a third round pick, somebody could get a steal.
Will Rackley (Lehigh)
One FCS lineman wasn't enough for me, so I decided to put Will Rackley on this list. He is an All-American candidate, earning a two-time All-League selection.
So what stands out about Will Rackley? How about the fact that he bench presses 440 pounds.
That's all I needed to hear. With raw power like Rackley's, he immediately becomes a chance some teams will be willing to take. Don't get me wrong; he is already a great player as well. He performed well in the East-West Shrine game, which will probably help his draft stock.
A good Scouting Combine will also probably help Rackley jump into the third round of the draft.
Center: Tim Barnes (Missouri) and Jake Kirkpatrick (TCU)
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Tim Barnes (Missouri)
It's not a deep draft at the center position. Barnes is actually ranked on most boards as the number three center that will be available in the draft. At that position, he is projected to be selected in the fifth round.
Barnes' best asset appears to be his run-blocking. He comes off the ball with power and can move smaller defensive lineman with ease. He moves downfield quickly and is known for taking MIKE linebackers out of plays.
However, Barnes isn't the most gifted athlete. He doesn't have the technique at this point in his career to be a star player in the NFL. He has also had surgery on both shoulders, which will drive some teams away.
With a late round selection, Barnes may be a steal if he can stay healthy and fix his technique issues.
Jake Kirkpatrick (Texas Christian)
Like Barnes, Kirkpatrick's strength is his his run-blocking game. He explodes off the ball with force and can take initial linemen out of the play. He holds his ground and makes it hard for players to get off of his blocks.
Kirkpatrick has all of the physical abilities to be a long time starter in the NFL, but currently, like Barnes, lacks the technique to get the job done in the passing game. He will often get caught flat footed and can get pushed around by stronger linemen.
As was said earlier, TCU was one of the best in the nation when it came to sacks allowed. Kirkpatrick still has the physical ability to make plays and could be a starter in a season or two.
He is projected to be selected in the fifth round.
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Tight End: Lance Kendricks (Wisc) and Lee Smith (Marshall)
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Lance Kendricks (Wisconsin)
In the NFL today, the tight end position has changed a lot from what it was just 10 years ago. Coaches today are looking for players who are more of a receiving threat. Kendrick doesn't fit this mold, and because of that, his stock is much lower than it probably should be.
Kendrick is still a solid receiving threat, but he won't compete with Kyle Rudolph or D.J. Williams. In his career, Kendrick has totaled 1,160 yards receiving for eight touchdowns.
What Kendrick brings to the table is a solid blend of abilities. Along with his solid receiving ability comes run-blocking talent that is just as good if not better. Most tight ends in today's game are usually great at one or the other; Kendrick is great in both regards.
Wisconsin was one of the best rushing teams this season, and Kendrick's ability contributed. However, as a tight end, it is often overlooked.
James White rushed for 1,052 yards, John Clay rushed for 1,012 yards, and Montee Ball rushed for 996 yards in 2010. Either Wisconsin has three amazing running backs who nobody is talking about, or they have a fantastic offensive line. Most people go with the offensive line theory. What people forget is that Kendrick was often the sixth man on the line during running plays. His ability to help running backs break free is very overlooked.
Kendrick is expected to be drafted somewhere in the third round. If he is drafted to a team where his unique talents can flourish, expect him to be a starter in the league for years to come.
Lee Smith (Marshall)
Lee Smith is almost a replica of Lance Kendrick. However, since Smith played at Marshall rather than a top tier team like Wisconsin, he is going a bit under the radar.
Smith was used primarily as a blocking tight end until his junior season. He is one of the bigger tight ends in the draft class, coming in at 6'6” and 270 lbs. His size is a big advantage when it comes to his ability in run blocking situations.
When Cody Slate went down in 2009 to an injury, Smith stepped in as the primary tight end in Marshall's offense. During the one and a half seasons Smith showed his ability as a receiving tight end. This season, he was the team's second leading receiver.
Smith probably won't be drafted until the sixth round, and chances are he won't be a starting tight end on any team for a few seasons. Smith makes for a fantastic threat as a number two tight end, with his bigger frame for goal line formations and even as a receiving threat in a two tight end set. For a sixth round pick, Lee could be a solid player in the NFL.
Fullback: Stanley Havili (USC) and Henry Hynoski (Pitt)
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Stanley Havili (Southern California)
It's tough to find a player at fullback and call them a sleeper, particularly because there are only about four or five that are likely to be drafted.
Stanley Havili has had a phenomenal career at USC, and it has gone pretty much unnoticed. Havili has shown that he has the ability to be a blocking fullback in the NFL, but also that he can be a playmaker in the passing game or running game.
Havili is the all-time receptions leader for a fullback at USC with 116 total catches. 12 of these catches were for touchdowns.
Havili also has 509 rushing yards in his career for another three touchdowns. He has the speed and versatility that isn't seen in most fullbacks in todays game.
Early predictions have Havili being drafted somewhere in the late third or early fourth round.
Henry Hynoski (Pittsburgh)
Hynoski doesn't exhibit the same versatility that Havili will provide to an NFL team. However, he still has the ability to make plays running and receiving if given the opportunity. He has 40 receptions for 183 yards along with a touchdown during his time at Pittsburgh. He also has rushed the ball 37 times for 143 yards and another score.
Hynoski will primarily be a run blocker at the next level. He has the ability to be a long time starter as well. His blocking abilities were shown often in recent years, as he was used to block for Dion Lewis.
Due to the emphasis put on the position, little has been said about Hynoski. Although projected to be drafted around the fifth round, Hynoski could actually be the best overall fullback in this years draft class.
Wide Receiver: Cecil Shorts III (Mount Union) and Dwayne Harris (ECU)
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Cecil Shorts III (Mount Union)
It's becoming more common to hear of people rising from Division II schools to make an impact in the NFL. However, it's difficult to name any players in the NFL that played in Division III schools. Ken Anderson, quarterback at Augustana, was a four time Pro Bowl player, but there was no Division III at the time.
If there was ever a player in Division III to take a chance on, it is Cecil Shorts III.
Shorts is a wide receiver out of Mount Union. He began playing wide receiver his sophomore season after the team's leader graduated. That player was Pierre Garcon of the Indianapolis Colts.
How did Shorts' career at Mount Union compare to that of Pierre Garcon's? Garcon averaged 66 catches, 1,121 yards receiving and 15 touchdowns in each of his three years at Mount Union. During Shorts' three years he averaged 82 receptions, 1,472 yards and 20 touchdowns (23 as sophomore, a league record).
Shorts is listed at 6'2” and 200 lbs. He runs a 4.42 in the 40-yard dash. He is projected to go somewhere around the fifth round of the draft.
I'm going to go out on a ledge and say this. If Shorts is drafted to the right team, with a decent scheme and an above average quarterback, he will go down as the greatest player to ever come out of a Division III school.
Dwayne Harris (East Carolina)
Dwayne Harris is not a number one wide receiver, and chances are he never will be. However, that doesn't mean he won't be an effective player in the NFL.
Harris lacks the size of an elite wide receiver. He is listed at 6'0” and 195 lbs, and both of those numbers are very generous. Most players who lack bulk make up for it with speed. Harris does not. His straight end speed is good, but nothing spectacular.
So why could he be a sleeper? Just because he isn't a lead wide receiver doesn't mean that he won't help teams out. Harris has the ability to be extremely effective in the slot. He has the acceleration and quickness to succeed in a position where he can utilize mismatches and won't likely face any press coverages.
Harris also plays with toughness, something needed from slot receivers. Despite his size, he has no fear going over the middle and rarely goes down on first contact.
Harris also has the ability to return kicks. He could be a very versatile player for many teams and could end up having a solid career. Although he will never be Jerry Rice, the team that selects him in the fourth round could get a great football player.
Running Back: Kendall Hunter (Okla St) and Dion Lewis (Pitt)
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Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State)
The most underrated player in this year's draft. I have been trying to figure out why Hunter is so low on so many draft boards. The only reason I see over and over again is that he lacks the size to be an every down NFL running back. The fact that his 2009 season was riddled with injuries may concern some teams as well.
But Hunter was able to follow it up with a fantastic 2010 campaign. He ran the ball 271 times for 1,548 yards and 16 touchdowns. Statistically, Hunter is the best running back to come out of Oklahoma State since Barry Sanders. He didn't put up those numbers beating up on lesser teams either. This season against Nebraska, the ninth ranked defense in the NCAA, Hunter rushed 26 times for 201 yards and two touchdowns.
Hunter's best attribute is his vision out of the backfield. He is patient waiting for his blocks and has the speed and acceleration to hit the holes fast. He is an above average receiver out of the back field if teams would want to use him as a receiving threat.
Hunter reminds me of Maurice Jones-Drew, who also fell in the draft due to teams afraid of his smaller frame. Jones-Drew is now considered one of the best running backs in the league. I see Hunter taking a very similar path to the top after a season or two in the league.
Dion Lewis (Pittsburgh)
Dion Lewis is entering the draft after just his sophomore year at Pittsburgh. He is currently projected to go somewhere in the late fourth to early fifth round. If Lewis would have remained in Pittsburgh until his senior season and kept on the path he was currently on, I believe he would have been a first round pick.
In Lewis' freshman season, he rushed for 1,799 yards and 17 touchdowns. To put that in perspective, this season LaMichael James led the NCAA in rushing yards at 1,731 and had 21 touchdowns.
This year, Lewis rushed for only 1,061 yards. The reason was due to a large drop in his number of carries, 106 fewer than his freshman season.
I have a hard time understanding Lewis' decision to declare for this years draft. He is projected to fall possibly to the fifth round. If he were to stick around for at least one more season, I could see his stock rising to the second round at least.
Lewis has the raw talent to play running back. He may not have an immediate impact on the team that does end up taking him, but after a few seasons, Lewis could emerge as one of the steals from this draft class.
Quarterback: Andy Dalton (TCU) and Pat Devlin (Delaware)
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Andy Dalton (Texas Christian)
Dalton comes out of Texas Christian with a 42-8 record as the starting quarterback. Five of the eight losses came when he was a freshman. One thing is for sure, Dalton is a winner. During his time at TCU, Dalton threw for 10,314 yards and accumulated 71 passing touchdowns. He also rushed for 1,611 yards and ran for 22 more touchdowns.
This season ended with a 21-19 victory for the Horned Frogs in the Rose Bowl over Wisconsin. Dalton was named offensive MVP of the game, one of three times he has won the MVP award in a bowl game.
Dalton has improved every year as a quarterback. His passer rating has gradually increased, along with his touchdown to interception ratio.
He displays all of the intangibles needed to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. He is smart, accurate, and shows presence when in the pocket. There are many teams in need of a quarterback going into this years draft. Dalton is expected to go somewhere in the third round. Whoever gets him could be in store for a pleasant surprise.
Pat Devlin (Delaware)
Devlin is an FBS player who played at an FCS school. He enrolled at Penn State and backed up Daryll Clark until his junior season. After recognizing he would remain backup, Devlin transferred to the University of Delaware for the opportunity to start.
His career at Delaware was extremely similar to that of Raven's quarterback Joe Flacco. He had an above average season as a junior, followed by a phenomenal year as a Senior.
During his time at Delaware, Devlin threw for 5,696 yards and 38 touchdowns. Devlin led the Blue Hens to the FCS Championship game his senior year, where they would lose a close game to Eastern Washington.
Devlin has the ideal build for an NFL quarterback. He has good arm strength and the athleticism to run when needed. His accuracy is above average, but he has some problems with his technique. His throwing motion is slow and may be a problem at the next level. If given the right coaching staff, Devlin could develop into a good quarterback in the NFL. He is projected to be drafted in the third or fourth round.
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