Super Bowl 2011: It's Not Just Rodgers and Roethlisberger Going Head To Head
With all the prediction and speculation that is already out there, it is hard to know who to trust. Despite early beliefs that the Pittsburgh Steelers would run away with this year’s Super Bowl XLV, the Packers are still favored in Vegas odds by nearly a field goal.
There are many ways to look at a game of this scale. The Super Bowl is, after all, the single largest sporting event in the United States. This one game itself is a multi-million dollar industry, televised across the world to NFL fans everywhere.
So with all the other pundits weighing in, we here at Bleacher Report thought it was high time that this most auspicious of contests be broken down to determine a clear—and frankly obvious—winner, almost an entire week before kickoff.
No one knows which way the ball will bounce once it is booted off in Arlington, TX at 6 PM EST next Sunday, but we know how it should go down.
Offensive Line
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These two teams have very similar O-lines in one big way:
Neither one has known who would be starting from week to week.
Green Bay’s O-Line has been so beat up from injuries that rookie Bryan Bulaga—strangely enough someone this reporter went to high school with—has been a consistent starter in a season where he was not expected to be. However, he has stepped up and silenced any critics he had about his 5-year $14 million contract.
Through the injuries however, the Pack’s line has held opposing pass rushers to only 31 sacks over 475 drop backs and the 15 regular season games Aaron Rodgers played in. Through three playoff games, they have only allowed another five to add to that total. They have continued to allow the league’s premier pure passer to drop back and do what he does best, leading the way to a fifth overall league passing offense ranking.
That being said, they and the entire Packer rushing game has been a joke almost all season, averaging 100 YPG—“good” enough for 24th overall.
On the other side of the coin, the Steelers’ O-Line hasn't been any more stable—losing two starting linemen—and not nearly as good in the passing game. In Roethlisberger’s suspension shortened 12 game regular season, they allowed 32 sacks, with another eight coming in Pittsburgh’s two postseason games.
Lead by Flozell Adams at Right tackle, they have been much better on the run however, though part of that could be the one-two punch of Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore averaging 120 YPG.
However—when you add the amount of pressure to their star QB to the broken ankle of starter Maurkice Pouncey—the Green Bay Packers win this round not based on gut feel or logic, but on pure production in the face of adversity.
Also, when it comes down to it, the pass game will be much bigger in this Super Bowl than the rushing attack, and QB protection will be key to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
D-Line and Linebackers
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Now for the guys who will be breaking down the pass protection and run blocking of both teams’ maligned offensive lines.
Lead by their fantastic linebacker core in LaMarr Woodley, James Farrior and James Harrison, Pittsburgh’s front seven have held opposing offenses to a league best 62.8 rushing YPG. That’s almost 30 YPG less than the next closest team in the league. They have also earned 37.5 sacks during the regular season alone and have 14 forced fumbles among them with seven interceptions as well.
At the other end of the field, Green Bay’s 3-4 defense is headlined up front by LOLB Clay Matthews and nose tackle B.J Raji. Assuming that he is not too overwhelmed by his carries at the fullback position, we can expect B.J. Raji to continue to confuse and annoy offensive lines as he did on his way to his 7.5 sacks this year.
Around the outside, Clay Matthews continues to play as arguably the best outside linebacker in at least the NFC, if not the NFL. His 17 sacks this season is best in the league, along with a pick-six and two forced fumbles. Clay Matthews drives quarterbacks, running backs, and O-linemen alike crazy with his speed, power, and sheer knowledge of where to be at all times.
However, when you consider that front sevens are about stopping the run and putting pressure on the quarterback, you have to give the edge here to Pittsburgh. Both defenses run a 3-4 up front, but the Steelers' have one of the best 3-4 defenses in recent memory.
Secondary
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Both teams in this year’s Super Bowl have stellar defenses. In this case though, when it comes to secondary play, one definitely stands head and shoulders above the other.
When people think of the Steelers’ secondary, they think of one name—Polamalu. He leads their defense on the field, and is widely considered to be not only the best strong safety in the NFL, but the best safety overall. He is a little dinged up, as he has been throughout the latter portion of the season, but he is still the best there is.
Polamalu accounted for seven of the Steelers’ 24 regular season picks, and also forced one fumble. He is more than the sum of his stats however. He is, simply put, one of the most feared and hardest hitting defensive players this league has seen. Receivers aren’t likely to sleep the night before meeting him on the field—and if they do run into him on the field—they aren’t likely to sleep well that night either.
The Green Bay Packers on the other hand are lead in the secondary by Charles Woodson, a methodical veteran who reads offensive attacks like a book, sniffs out play action passes and jumps coverage for interceptions as well as anyone in the league. His 47 career picks are sure to weigh heavily on Roethlisberger’s mind every time he throws the ball into Woodson’s coverage.
On the other side of their defense is Tramon Williams who has really come into his own this year. His six interceptions and one forced fumble earned him a replacement spot on the Pro Bowl roster, and guarantees that Roethlisberger can’t just throw to whomever Woodson isn’t covering. His presence also allows the Packers to leave their corners on islands of coverage, allowing them to better stop the rushing attack of the Steelers.
The defenses for both Green Bay and Pittsburgh both have great secondaries, but only one of them was fifth overall in opponent’s passing yards per game, and that is the Charles Woodson led Packers secondary. Green Bay gets the nod in this round.
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Receiving Core
4 of 10This decision is tougher, if not only for nostalgia’s sake.
The Packers receiving core is led by the veteran receivers of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. I do have one quick note about Greg Jennings before we move forward though.
If you don’t know about his dominance, all you need to see is this video
(WARNING: some of the audio might not be suitable for children)
Now that that is out of the way, we can talk about the real Greg Jennings. He leads the team not only in yards, but also in touchdowns, receptions, longest reception, yards per game, yards after the catch and first downs. That is a mouthful. The fact is, he was the most targeted receiver, but he justifies that position. He gets open in the tightest coverages, and makes catches when Rodgers puts the ball where he can go get it, which—if you haven’t seen them both play together—is often.
The Steelers are led—as they have been so many years gone by—by Hines Ward. He may not have led the team in any receiving categories, but he continues to be their go-to guy when they need the first down or when they need someone to go up and get it in the end zone.
Mike Wallace had a breakout year in his second season out of Mississippi, and continues to average over 20 yards per catch over his 103 receptions. However, he has been all but shut down in the postseason.
In the end, you can’t vote against Greg Jennings and the Packers.
Running Game
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Three weeks ago, this would seem like a very easy choice. The Pack’s rushing game has been dismal all year, and we could expect it to continue to under perform against the single best run defense in the league.
It is possible though, with the recent emergence of James Starks, that the Packers could catch the Steelers off guard with a few well timed run plays. If nothing else, they need to keep that defense honest to expose any small holes in the secondary.
This category goes to the Steelers though. The simple fact is that they have proved that while they are not the Kansas City Chiefs, they can run the ball week in and week out as a source of offense, not just a source of balance. Expect Mendenhall to be asked to step up and he will deliver.
Special Teams
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Special teams are often overlooked for their importance, even though they set up the offense with better—or worse—field position. This battle comes down to one simple word: consistency.
The Packers have had the same place kicker and punter all season long and although the stats for both teams in these categories are about the same, I have to give the slight edge to the simple fact that if the Super bowl was on the line, I’d rather have Mason Crosby kicking the field goal.
However, considering that both teams have around the same production in their return and kicking games, this one is a draw.
Coaching Staff
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Up until now, this debate has been pretty even, each team taking a few categories, neither of them head and shoulders above the rest. You may even be wondering how a choice could be made between these two, and you likely understand why the Vegas odds are so close. However, this is the category where everything changes.
Mike McCarthy and his staff have done a great job with the Packers since he joined them in 2006. He even won Coach of the Year in 2007. The simple fact however, is that he is overmatched by the sheer genius on the other sideline.
Mike Tomlin has been continually compared—in looks only—to Omar Epps, who plays a doctor on FOX’s medical drama House M.D. The fact is, he may not be a PhD in anything, but that is only because they don’t give degrees in Tampa 2 defense or Roethlisberger’s special brand of QB play.
Mike McCarthy and his staff are good, but Tomlin and his staff are still the best in the league. Yes, even better than Belichick, because they are still playing, and Mr. Cutoff Sleeves will be watching the Super Bowl from home. Edge here goes to the Steelers.
Quarterbacks
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Now for the one you’ve all been waiting for. I couldn’t give this one away up front could I?
Not that it is much of a debate. Roethlisberger has had a great year with 17 TD passes and 3200 yards in only 12 games. However, no one in recent memory has been as good of a quarterback in one postseason as Aaron Rodgers has been this year.
Sore shoulder or not, Rodgers will play next Sunday, and has a chance to dominate the show. He earned a 101.2 QB rating in the regular season, but then exploded in the playoffs with 790 yards, a 71 percent completion rating, and six touchdowns, while only throwing 2 interceptions. Not to mention that both of those picks came against the Chicago Bears, consistently one of the best teams in the league at creating turnovers.
Sure, Roethlisberger has more experience and has been better for longer, but when you can have a QB rating of 55.4 one game out of three and still average 109.2, you are the best in the business.
The edge here goes to the Packers and Aaron Rodgers.
Intangibles
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Oh the intangibles! That category in sports that always comes up around championship time, the variables in all sports that everyone tries to quantify and control.
Here, the intangibles go to the Steelers. I believe that the Packers are hungrier and want this victory a lot more than the Steelers do, but when you consider that the Packers one dimensional offense will be made even more one dimensional by the Steelers’ run defense, you have to wonder if Aaron Rodgers will even be able to get the ball out of his hands without forcing it into tight coverage.
Also, Mike Tomlin, Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu, Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle El, and so many other Steelers have been there before. Recently.
They know the type of focus and determination needed for all 60 minutes that many of the current Packers just don’t yet understand, namely Aaron Rodgers. I have no doubt that he will be a Super Bowl MVP someday, but don’t expect it to be in Super Bowl XLV.
Recap and Prediction
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Just to recap for those of you playing at home, that is nine categories, with each team winning four and one draw. So how can we wrap all this up? Easy:
Steelers win the Super Bowl XLV 31-24.
What do I know that Vegas odds makers don’t? Honestly—nothing. The fact of the matter is that so much of sports, especially football, are played in the mind. Between the mental toughness required and the importance of coaching in this league, the Steelers take the whole thing. It will be a hard fought game, at times seemingly going nowhere. However, Pittsburgh’s running game will soften up the Packer defense and allow Roethlisberger time and gaps in coverage to find Hines Ward and Mike Wallace for big plays over the middle of the field.
Aaron Rodgers and his Packers will not go quietly, but the Super Bowl and MVP wins go to Roethlisberger and the 2010-2011 Pittsburgh Steelers. Let’s just hope he doesn’t party as hard this offseason.
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