Super Bowl XLV: Steelers and Packers Set To Face Off, So Who Has the Edge?
The Steelers look to claim their seventh Super Bowl title and solidify their place as the NFL's best team. The Packers look to win their fourth Super Bowl and first since Super Bowl XXXI. These two historic franchises finally meet in the big game.
Who has the edge? I break down the components of each team and determine it is going to be a pretty close game.
With the winner being...
Coaches
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Both coaches have earned their way through the ranks, both starting at the college level. Both coaches started out as position coaches, to coordinators and eventually head coaches. Mike Tomlin grew up on the defensive side while Mike McCarthy grew up on the offensive side.
Tomlin has guided the Steelers to a 43-21 record (5-1 in the postseason) in his four years in Pittsburgh with three playoff appearances (three division titles) and a Super Bowl victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII.
McCarthy, who was born and raised in Pittsburgh, grew up a Steelers fan, also served as the University of Pittsburgh quarterbacks coach from 1989-1991 and wide receivers coach in 1992. He has guided the Packers to a 48-32 record (4-2 in the post season) in his five seasons in Green Bay, including three playoff appearances (one divisional title). This will be his first Super Bowl appearance.
Each coach’s background is evident in their teams; McCarthy’s teams have ranked in the top 10 in offense in each of his five seasons, while Tomlin’s teams have ranked in the top five in defense in each of his four years.
Both coaches are known as coaches that players love to play for while also getting their players to respect and buy into their coaching styles and philosophies. Regardless of the outcome, expect this to be a well coached game, and don’t be surprised if both coaches pull out a trick play or two.
Based on the old adage of “having been here before”, Tomlin gets a slight edge.
Edge: Steelers.
Defensive Coordinators
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It’s hard to believe, but Dick LeBeau actually served as the Steelers defensive backfield coach under Dom Capers while he was the Steelers defensive coordinator from 1992-1994 when Bill Cowher was the coach of the Steelers. Both are huge advocates of the 3-4 defense, and both have produced impressive stats.
LeBeau has served as a defensive coordinator for 21 years. His latest stint with the Steelers began in 2004. His defenses have finished in the top 10 every season since his return and have ranked first in total defense on three different occasions. This season, they ranked second in total defense, 12th in pass defense, first in run defense and first in scoring defense.
Capers took over as the Packers defense coordinator in 2009 and immediately turned their 4-3 defense that they had used since 1992 into a 3-4 defense. In his first year with Green Bay, the defense improved from 21st overall in the league to second. This season, they ranked fifth in total defense, fifth in passing defense, 18th in run defense and second in scoring defense.
LeBeau has the love, respect and dedication of all his players, and the rumors have already begun, stating that this may be the last game that he will coach. Whether that is true or not, his players do not want ever to let him down, especially in what may be his last game.
Edge: Steelers.
Offensive Coordinators
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Joe Philbin has been with the Packers since 2003, servings as assistant offensive line coach (03), tight ends/assistant offensive line coach (04-05) and offensive line coach (06). He was promoted to the Packers offensive coordinator in 2007. His offense has been ranked in the top 10 in each of his four seasons. Philbin has had the luxury of growing with Aaron Rodgers. They work well together and understand what the other is thinking.
Bruce Arians has been with the Steelers since 2004, serving as the wide receivers coach from 04-06. He was promoted to offensive coordinator since 2007. The play-calling of Arians has been suspect at times, and more than a few people have questioned his ability to call plays based on situations. Others have even questioned the Steelers (and Mike Tomlin) about keeping him.
He has become mostly predictable, yet at other times leaves people scratching their heads with some of the calls he makes in certain situations. He is at his best when he lets Ben Roethlisberger take over the game, which can’t be a good thing as an offensive coordinator.
Edge: Packers.
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Quarterbacks
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Both quarterbacks had very similar seasons as far as statistics go. Here is a look at the regular season average for both quarterbacks.
2010 Per-Game Avg. | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Sack |
Roethlisberger | 20 | 32.4 | 266.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.6 |
Rodgers | 20.8 | 31.6 | 261.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 2 |
Aaron Rodgers is without a doubt the hottest quarterback in this year’s postseason, passing for 790 yards and six touchdowns (with only two interceptions) in three games. He has a 3-1 career playoff record. Though he had his worst game against the Bears in the NFC Championship Game, he did enough to win. He did take some hits against the Bears but has dispelled the rumors that he suffered another concussion.
He appears healthy, and come game time for his first Super Bowl, he will be ready. He has been communicating with retired quarterback Kurt Warner to gain insight on what to expect and how to deal with the added pressure and intensity of playing in the Super Bowl.
Ben Roethlisberger will be making his third trip to the Super Bowl (in the last six seasons). He is 10-2 in the post season and has already won two Super Bowls. His statistics are nowhere near what Rodgers has put up, but Roethlisberger is not a stat guy. What he is, is a proven winner. His ability to keep plays alive is what makes Big Ben.
Against the Jets, he scrambled twice (3rd and 12 and 3rd and 4) to pick up first downs, he also scored on a two-yard touchdown run. But his biggest play was on a 3rd and four with the game in the balance, he dropped back, scrambled to his right and hit Antonio Brown for 14-yards and a 1st down to seal the victory.
Both quarterbacks have had trouble with sacks, but Roethlisberger’s ability to extend plays beyond what most quarterback in the league are capable of doing and to absorb hits and come back even stronger. That, along with the fact that this will be Roethlisberger’s third Super Bowl, gives him the slight edge over Rodgers.
Edge: Steelers.
Running Backs
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The Packers finished 24th in the league in rushing. They only had one regular season game in which they had a runner gain 100 or more yards.
The Packer running game was struck a blow in the first week of the season when Ryan Grant suffered a season-ending injury. They tried Brandon Jackson, who started out slow, showed flashes of greatest (115-yards in week 5 against Washington), then faded away to obscurity. Though he did step up when Rodgers missed the Patriots game with 99-yards, only to have a 2.2 average the following week.
The postseason has seen the emergence of rookie James Starks, who is now listed as the starting running back, even though he only played in three regular season games and didn't play until week 13. He had a break-out game against Philadelphia in the wild card round, followed by a sub-par performance against Atlanta and a respectable game against the Bears, who had the second ranked run defense in the NFL.
He will be counted on to offset the Steelers rush, but is not expected to amount much yards against a Steelers defense that led the league against the run and has only allowed one 100-yard rusher in their last 54 games.
Rashard Mendenhall has been the Steelers work horse back all season, finishing seventh in rushing yards and tied for second in rushing touchdowns. He also finished fourth in rushing attempts with 324, which has led some people to believe that he has been over-worked. He had an average game in the divisional round against Baltimore, but he did have two touchdowns. He ran all over the Jets defense, which ended the season ranked second in the league against the run, for 121 yards and added two catches for another 32-yards. He did not appear over-worked as he handed out more hits than the Jets defense.
Isaac Redman appears to be taking advantage of his opportunities, rushing for 27 yards on only four attempts against the Jets. The Steelers rushed for 166 total yards against the Jets and will look to improve on that against the Packers.
Edge: Steelers.
Wide Receivers
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The Steelers receivers did not have an impressive day against the Jets, but that can be attributed to the fact that they only passed the ball 19 times while running the ball 43 times. The entire receiving corps accounted for only five catches for 54 yards (which is half the catches and almost half the yards of the team), but all five catches were for first downs.
No catch was bigger than Antonio Bryant’s 14-yard catch with less than two minutes to go to seal the game. Hines Ward remains a steady threat and is the best blocking receiver in the league. Mike Wallace is one of the fastest receivers in the NFL and is a threat to score from anywhere, averaging 21 yards per catch. Antonio Brown and Emanuel Sanders have progressed nicely and are both solid options. What they lack in experience they make up for in desire and speed.
Greg Jennings is the Packers main threat. He finished fourth in receiving yards and tied for second in receiving touchdowns while barely cracking the top 20 in receptions. He finished with five 100 yards games and has two consecutive in the postseason but has yet to score a postseason touchdown. Donald Driver, James Jones and Jordy Nelson all had similar stats during the regular season and combined for three 100-yard games and 11 touchdowns between them.
Driver may have lost a step or two, but like Ward, he is still a threat to be reckoned with. While Driver’s performance may have dropped off a little, both Jones and Nelson had the best years of their young careers.
Both teams' receiving corps possess both veteran leadership and youth and will all need to be accounted for during the Super Bowl. Especially the way both quarterbacks like to spread the ball around.
Edge: Even.
Tight Ends
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Heath Miller had two catches against the Jets after having five against Baltimore. He appears to be fully recovered from the concussion he received in week 13, causing him to miss two games. Miller has the experience and is a better option than Quarless; still, both have comparable numbers this season. Miller's strength is his ability to get open and very rarely does he drop a pass or fumble.
Andrew Quarless has filled in nicely after the season ending injury to Jermichael Finley but has not been able to develop the same chemistry that Rodgers had with Finley. Quarless, like Miller, is solid at run blocking and protection but Miller is solid in all phases of the game.
Edge: Steelers.
Offensive Line
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The Steelers lost two starters for the season early on and have never fully recovered from that. They also lost Maurkice Pouncey on their first series against the Jets. He has been their offensive line anchor and their most dependable lineman all season.
If he is unable to play, the Steelers will use Doug Legursky. The offensive line was a bit suspect with Pouncey. Without him, it could be a long day for Roethlisberger and the Steelers running game.
The Packers have been steady and consistent with Scott Wells anchoring their line at center. Wells has only missed six games in his six year career. Chad Clifton is a solid veteran and will keep Rodgers blind side protected. They have grown better as the season and the Packer running game has progressed.
Edge: Packers.
Defensive Line
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The Steelers front three have been steady all year, and that includes games missed by Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith (who has been out since October and may return for the Super Bowl). The Steelers utilize their front three geared more towards stopping the run and clogging up offensive linemen to free up their blitzing linebackers.
The Packers front three are utilized more as pass-rushers and have accumulated 15 sacks between the three. Both units have been impressive at what they do the best. The Steelers will get a huge lift if Smith returns. But that probably will not be known until game day.
Edge: Even.
Linebackers:
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The Packers probably have this season’s defensive player of the year in Clay Matthews who can do everything, while the Steelers have the 2008 defensive player of the year in James Harrison. Harrison should receive some votes this year, but his repeated fines and responses to them, may taint some of his accomplishments. With Harrison and Matthews being a push, the Steelers remaining three linebackers are better in every statistical category and the veteran leadership provided by James Farrior can’t be found on the Packers. Plus these linebackers love Dick LeBeau, they are healthy and focused. They can stop the run, rush the quarterback, blitz from anywhere and drop back into coverage. Edge: Steelers.
Cornerbacks:
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Charles Woodson has declared that since the president is not coming to the Super Bowl the Packers will be going to the White House (Which is customary for each Super Bowl winner). Woodson is also the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He has had a sub-par year, compared to last year, but looks to finish strong and win his first Super Bowl. Tramon Williams is a decent cover corner though he tends to get beat deep on occasion.
Ike Taylor has shown improvement but Steelers fans still hold their breath on deep balls thrown his way. He is a lot better pass-defender than he is a threat to grab an interception, which isn’t saying all that much. William Gay has improved and appears more comfortable. He scored a touchdown against the Jets after recovering a fumble. If he continues to progress, he could be a difference maker in this game. Edge: Packers.
Safeties:
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Nick Collins and Charlie Peprah are average-to-decent safeties and can deliver hits when the opportunity provides itself. But compared to Polamalu and Clark they are a light years away.
Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark accounted for nine tackles against the Jets. Polamalu can change any game on any play. He has had a sub-par post season (by his standards) thus far. Look for him to be at full speed against the Packers in the Super Bowl. Clark, who continues to feed off of the energy of Polamalu, seems to have gotten better as the year has progressed and is also one the hardest hitting safety’s in the game. Edge: Steelers.
Special Teams:
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Shaun Suisham has been steady since being picked up by the Steelers (after they released Jeff Reed) in week 11. He has made over 93% of his FG attempts and is flawless in PAT’s. Mason Crosby has made 78% of his FG attempts, possibly costing his team two victories. He missed two FG’s in the overtime lose to the Redskins and one FG in a three-point lose to the Bears. He is also flawless in 46 of 46 PAT’s. Both punter, (Jeremy Kapinos and Tim Masthay) are dependable with one out of three punts being downed inside the 20-yard line.
The Steelers are still suspect on coverage. The Packers seem to have the edge on special teams solely based on their return coverage, though Crosby’s percentage may come to light in the Super Bowl. Edge: Packers.
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