Super Bowl 2011: Steelers, Packers, Themes and Predictions for the Big Game

Here we are, thirteen days away from Super Bowl XLV, or forty-five for those who don't speak Roman. Looking back, it truly was a sad year for fans of the Cowboys, the Vikings, the 49ers and the Panthers. It was a surprising year for the Rams and the Eagles. A great run by the Jets, a letdown by the Pats, etcetera, etcetera.

But all that matters now is Pittsburgh Steelers versus Green Bay Packers. The NFL's most successful franchise of the Super Bowl era versus the NFL's original juggernaut (arguably). From both a big picture view and the small perspective, there are dozens of enticing themes associated with this matchup for football fans to dissect.

Last year it was largely about non-sports-related disasters, i.e. Hurricane Katrina, and the earthquake in Haiti, and yes, our thoughts and prayers all go out to people affected by those tragedies. But this year, the focus remains primarily on football.

What are the biggest headlines of this year's NFL championship game? Who will win? I've broken down the four most intriguing stories of Super Bowl XLV, the biggest matchups and X-factors, and have confidently predicted which team will win and which player will take home the MVP trophy. If you're like me, you're going to get sick of those yellow towels.

Theme 1. Two Popular Franchises

Let's just get this one out of the way because it's barely been 24 hours since the matchup was determined, and this topic has already been beaten pretty soundly. Not including the Dallas Cowboys, (and maybe the Washington Redskins), these two teams are the proud owners of the league's most loyal and passionate fan-bases. 

Each franchise has an exceptional history, saturated with championships and legendary figures. Lombardi, Noll, Starr, Bradshaw, Favre, Mean Joe Green, The Bus ... I could go on and on. Pittsburgh is the oldest team in the AFC. Green Bay is the second oldest franchise in the NFL. The Packers won loads of titles before they were called Super Bowls, and three afterward. The Steelers own more Super Bowl titles than any franchise, and are tied with Dallas for the most appearances. 

Without knowing any empirical data, I'll say subjectively that—again, with the Cowboys as the exception—these two teams have more remote fans than any other in the NFL. I grew up in the Carolinas (both before and after the Panthers expansion) and saw far more passionate Cowboys, Steelers, and Packers fans, than followers of any other franchise. 

And allow me to jump off the Dallas Cowboys bandwagon for a moment. When I think of the Cowboys, the following words come to mind: "cocky," "flashy," "risky," "bad boys" and, yes, "dominant." But when we're talking about the Packers and the Steelers, I think of these terms: "winning," "dominant," "consistent," "classy" (mainly for Green Bay), and most importantly, for both, "tradition."

I fully expect this to be one of (if not the) most watched Super Bowls ever. Last year's game set the TV mark for American ratings, and I won't be surprised if this year's game tops it because of the size of these fan-bases. I also expect in-game attendance to be high, but I'll get to that after reviewing some more prominent topics of discussion... on to the next one.

Theme  2. Ben Roethlisberger's Legacy

I'm definitely not going to write about the conduct allegations against Ben during the past several off-seasons. Of greater concern to me is his play on the field throughout his career. If Pittsburgh wins SB XLV, where does he place among the all-time greats? Is it fair to throw him in the same conversation as Brady and Manning? I love arbitrary subjective rankings of athletes in history, so without getting too deep in the weeds, let's take a crack at ranking Ben among the best signal callers ever.

If the Steelers do win, Ben will be 3-0 in Super Bowls, in seven seasons in the NFL. By contrast, it took Brady just five seasons to go 3-0 in title games, although he's lost one Super Bowl since, and has thrown up stinkers in his past two post season appearances. Peyton Manning, meanwhile is 1-1 in NFL title games, having taken twelve seasons to reach his second Super Bowl appearance, last year's loss to the Saints.

But we have to look at the bigger picture. Although he had one of the most stellar rookie seasons by a quarterback ever, Roethlisberger's regular season resume pales in comparison to those of Tom Brady and especially Manning. Statistically, Peyton will probably go down as the most dominant ever—barring a career ending injury in the next four or five years—while Brady is right up there and even more efficient throughout his career, recording a higher quarterback rating than Peyton.

Ben has a solid career passer rating of 92.5 in the regular season, and 85.4 in the playoffs. Brady on the other hand boasts a 95.2 and 85.7 respectively, and Peyton comes in strong with a 94.9 and 88.4 rating in the playoffs. (It's odd that Manning has a higher post season QB rating than both of them if you consider that Peyton is regularly labeled as the choke artist next to Brady who seems to be tagged as "Mr. Clutch," and Ben who has yet to lose in the Super Bowl.)

The other thing to consider is how important the quarterback is to his team. If Ben Roethlisberger can throw one of the worst Super Bowls of all time (22.6 passer rating in SB XL against the Seahawks) and still win, then that proves that there's a lot more to the team's success than Roethlisberger's passing. I'd argue that if Peyton Manning or Tom Brady threw a 22.6 anytime in the regular or post season, their respective teams would most likely lose, because of how important their quarterbacks are to their success.

However, Ben does make plays when it matters, frequently turns nothing into something, and regularly puts his team in a position to win, even though he might not be the stone-faced killer that single-handedly wins games like a Brady, Manning, or dipping a bit further back, Joe Montana. 

Still, winning championships (and not losing them) weighs heavily in these kinds of "best ever" arguments. Going 3-0 (or better) in Super Bowls is something that only a few can claim: Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman and Joe Montana. Each of those guys has to rank in at least the Top 15-20 quarterbacks all time, with Montana likely ranked as the first or second best.

But are Aikman and Bradshaw better quarterbacks than John Elway or Brett Favre, just because they have better Super Bowl resumes? I don't think so - there's much more to winning and losing than just the quarterback, so we can't allocate all of the blame and/or credit to each quarterback alone. Just most.

For the record, I'd place Ben among the ranks of Bradshaw and Aikman if he wins next Sunday. He's great when it matters, puts his team in a position to win, and is the charismatic, alpha-leader of his team. He may not be the best pure quarterback in the league, but there's something to be said for winning championships—especially if you don't lose in Super Bowl games. He's still not in the upper echelon of Montana, Unitas, Brady, Manning, Elway, or Favre, but he's in the second tier, along with Aikman and Bradshaw.

Again... if he beats Green Bay in SB XLV. 

Theme 3. Aaron Rodgers' Emergence as an Elite NFL Quarterback

Today, Aaron Rodgers might be the best quarterback in the NFL, based on his performance the past two seasons. He currently holds the highest career quarterback rating in NFL history, 98.4, and has a similarly impressive playoff resume, excluding yesterday's mediocre stat sheet against da Bears. Perhaps most importantly, Aaron Rodgers is winning.

I'm not going to go through another set of rankings for active quarterbacks today, but think of it this way: if you were starting a new NFL franchise from the ground up, who would you take as your quarterback? I'll bet you won't get through four names without saying Aaron Rodgers. And I'd take him over Ben, too. 

Last year, Rodgers was brilliant in his playoff premier, albeit against the Cardinals defense. After an early pick, he threw for over 400 yards and four scores before Karlos Dansby stole the ball from him on a sack and took it back for the game-winning score in overtime. His offensive dominance continued this year before he ran into Chicago's D... guess what? Pittsburgh's is even better. 

It will be the hardest task that Aaron Rodgers has faced in his young playoff career, the Steelers defense. So what if he wins? It's certainly possible. With a Super Bowl ring in his first try in his third season, Rodgers will have established himself as one of the league's best, along with Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger. And because of his youth, if I'm building an NFL team around a quarterback, I take Rodgers over all of them. 

He's got everything—he's one of the three best pure passers in the league, he has flawless technique, he's exceptionally mobile and regularly scores on the ground, he makes smart decisions, and he's a charismatic leader. It'd be nice for Rodgers to punctuate all of those traits with a Lombardi trophy. Will he do it? We'll get to that shortly...

Theme 4. Big D - Cowboys Stadium

So this one isn't quite as football-related as the others, but it's still intriguing. The House That Jerry Jones Built holds the single game NFL attendance record of a little over 105,000, set in last year's Cowboys home opener against the New York Giants. The Super Bowl record is 104,000, set in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena back in 1980. 

The official seating capacity of Cowboys Stadium isn't even close to the record, measuring in right at 80,000. But due to loads of standing room capacity and "expanded seating" options inside, the stadium can officially max-out at 110,000 people. The 2009 game against the Giants featured the expanded seating inside the stadium, but that will not be provided for the Super Bowl this year.

However, stadium officials have reported that they will be selling cheap tickets for standing room outside the stadium, that will actually count toward the game attendance. Couldn't the Steelers and Packers draw enough fans to come pretty close to maxing out the standing room capacity? If they don't reach the 110,000, couldn't they at least bring enough people to set the Super Bowl record?

Record or no record, has there ever been a Super Bowl held at a cooler venue? The answer is no, unless you're a sucker for vintage and would call the Rose Bowl cooler. In terms of state-of-the-art features, stadium amenities, seating capacity, and sheer size, there isn't another American sports stadium like this one. Okay—back to football. 

KEY MATCHUPS & X-FACTORS

Key Matchup A: Green Bay Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense

I'll start this one by saying that Green Bay's defense is outstanding, and Pittsburgh has executed well on offense. But I'm reasonably comfortable in predicting that the Steelers offense will be able to put up some points on Green Bay, based on the consistency of their run game, and the veteran leadership in the passing game. The more interesting battle is the Packers offense against the Steeler D. 

What makes it so interesting? First off, Aaron Rodgers is a more proficient QB than Ben Roethlisberger, and the Steelers defense is more dominant than the Packers. That makes for better competition. Second, there are a few key question marks on either side of the ball, which leads me to two key X-Factors...

X-Factor 1: James Starks, Green Bay running back

Will the undrafted rookie be able to provide even a small hint of a running threat against the Steeler front seven? How will he factor into the passing game? Can Rodgers rely on Starks to pick up LeBeau's blitz schemes?

X-Factor 2: Bryant McFadden, Pittsburgh cornerback

Will Aaron Rodgers expose the weak link in the Steelers defense? Will McFadden continue to get torched by superior wide receivers? Can Pittsburgh rely on him enough in man coverage to throw heavy blitzes at the quarterback? 

Key Matchup B: Clay Matthews vs. Ben Roethlisberger

Ben wins this one when we're talking about pure experience. But don't think for one second that he hasn't spent days studying film of Clay Matthews, a surefire pick to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. With Pittsburgh's injury-depleted offensive line, expect Matthews to get to Roethlisberger early and often. We all know Ben can avoid sacks and extend plays—how well will he fare against Matthews, who is far quicker than any pass rusher he's faced this post season? Can Clay Matthews and the Green Bay defense force Ben to turn the ball over?

Dark Horse X-Factor: Tim Masthay, Green Bay punter

Don't laugh. Punters are wimps right? They're last resorts. Indicators of offensive failure. If you watched the NFC Championship game, you know how big of an impact Tim Masthay had. Green Bay could barely move the ball, and Chicago's offense was impotent. The only variable was special teams. Thanks to Masthay, the Packers turned Devin Hester into a non-factor, consistently won the field position battle, maintained their lead and eventually won the game. Think of it this way: if Matt Dodge were punting to Hester ... well, you know where I'm going with this. (Sorry Giants fans.)

Sure, the Steelers don't have a punt return threat as dangerous as Devin Hester. But in a game with two exceptional defenses—unlike last year's Super Bowl—field position is crucial. Look for classic game tactics like ball control and clock management to be priorities in this year's contest. And punting effectiveness goes hand-in-hand with the field position battle. 

Also... Tim Masthay was born in Pittsburgh, although he grew up in Kentucky. What does that mean? Nothing, but it's a fun coincidence. Okay—ON TO PREDICTIONS.

PREDICTIONS

Super Bowl Champion - Pittsburgh Steelers

This one is tough, but I'm going with veteran leadership, balance, and coaching. Mike Tomlin has won two championships already, and Mike McCarthy almost blew it against the Bears and their third string quarterback. Ben's been there before and has been solid this entire post season, especially at the end of games.

As far as balance goes, I just don't believe Green Bay has the run game required to control the ball and beat Pittsburgh's defense. The Steelers shut down a hot Jets team that just beat the game's two best QBs, in their houses. Sure the Jets nearly came back, but it was Roethlisberger making the plays to win at the end. I think the Super Bowl will be just as close with Pittsburgh still coming out on top.

Final Score: Pittsburgh 24, Green Bay 17

Super Bowl MVP - Ben Roethlisberger

After having a horrific first Super Bowl—and still winning—and then being out-shined by Santonio Holmes in his second Super Bowl, I expect Ben to turn in a consistent performance to bring home the hardware this time around. I suspect he will turn the ball over at least once, but I imagine him coming back with a clutch fourth quarter to lead his team to victory. And that's why he'll stand out from other deserving Steelers—James Harrison, Troy Polamalu—to win the Most Valuable Player. 

Besides, looking back at other 3-0 (or better) Super Bowl quarterbacks, each of them won at least one MVP. Aikman (3-0) won one MVP, Bradshaw (4-0) won two MVPs, and Montana (4-0) won three. If the Steelers win, Ben Roethlisberger has to get the trophy. It's time.

And for all of us, fans of NFL teams that aren't the Pittsburgh Steelers, soon it will be time to stare at the TV and say... "Would you quit waving those damn towels around?!?"