NFL: Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and The Rest of 2011's Free Agent Wide Receivers
Wide Receivers can impact NFL teams a lot more than you think. As far as my time as an analyst dates back, I've been able to subdivide good NFL wide receivers into two major categories:
1. Raw Talent Receivers
Raw talent receivers are receivers that come to the NFL with the necessary superstar talents, and they evolve on their own to their peak. This could be because of speed (DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace), size (Braylon Edwards, Calvin Johnson) or they could possess some inexplicable skill where you know they are bound for superstardom (Randy Moss, Andre Johnson).
2. Feeding Receivers
Feeding receivers are receivers that excel because of the talent around them. Once they've improved enough, they remain good, even if the talent around them changes. This could be because of an outstanding quarterback (Austin Collie, Wes Welker), or they could use other skill players to their advantage, the way Anquan Boldin and Jeremy Maclin have evolved under Larry Fitzgerald and DeSean Jackson, respectively.
Come midnight on March 5, 2011, some of the better receivers in the NFL will be shipped all over the country and sign new contracts in new cities. On the other hand, some receivers will stay right where they are.
Here are the 15 most notable free agent wide receivers and where they could land.
15. Laveranues Coles, New York Jets
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Background
Laveranues Coles has had a good career, but he has been "off" as of late, for lack of a better word. In his 10-year career, he has posted three 1,000-yard receiving seasons.
He's on the list because of his past and his possible impact, not because of his 2010 performance (obviously, because he was cut by the Jets before the season started). Teams looking for an ex-star, who is now very cheap, can add him to the roster if their missing piece is at their No. 2 or No. 3 receiving slots.
Where He Could Go
New York Jets. If the Jets lose either Edwards or Santonio Holmes, and can't pull off a separate pickup or trade, they could lose depth at the WR position. Coles has been a Jet for most of his career and could definitely be re-signed.
Nowhere. Coles is 33 years old, and is coming off a season where he was not on any active roster. There is a solid chance he will either retire, or wait another year as an unsigned free agent.
14. Plaxico Burress
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Background
Plaxico Burress is the New York Giants' hero who cut his momentum short by, well, shooting himself in the leg and ordering around the ER staff to keep it a secret. That's never a good idea.
On a serious note, like Coles, Burress is also 33 years old, but has more future potential and has had a better past. If he had never had the shooting incident put him out of a job, he could certainly be higher up on this list.
For the 2007 Super Bowl-winning Giants, he had 1,025 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Maybe he can perform like that again if given a second chance.
Where He Could Go
Oakland Raiders. Oakland has always been in the discussion for teams who may opt to sign Burress. With new head coach Hue Jackson and a good running back in Darren McFadden, it does seem like a veteran receiver can come in to help out Jason Campbell.
Carolina Panthers. You could say Carolina should be looking for young players for the future. More than anything though, they need a season with more than two wins, just so the fans can keep the faith. They may choose to sign Burress to a 1-year deal and see if they can get five or six wins in 2011.
13. Brandon Stokley, Seattle Seahawks
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Background
Brandon Stokley has had an extremely odd history as a player. In 2004, he had a surprising breakout year with the Indianapolis Colts, reeling in 68 receptions for 1,077 yards and 10 touchdowns. He was never able to repeat such a performance again though, as a Raven, Colt, Bronco or Seahawk.
He does always randomly show up in headlines though, such as the time when he caught that tipped 87-yard touchdown catch in week one of the 2009 season to win the game for the Broncos over the Cincinnati Bengals. He also had an outstanding performance in the Wild Card playoff matchup, lifting the 7-9 Seahawks over the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints.
Where He Could Go
Tennessee Titans. Smart, veteran coaches can look at Stokley and see his potential. He's had too many high moments to call them pure coincidences. Surprisingly, I think there is a very good chance Stokely will be a Titan in 2011. Jeff Fisher has been in the league for a while, Randy Moss will definitely not be a Titan next year and Stokley could be a nice piece to add.
Seattle Seahawks. Stokley may also get re-signed in Seattle. He isn't particularly expensive and came up big on plays throughout the season.
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12. Jacoby Jones, Houston Texans
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Background
Jacoby Jones is a very underrated football player. Both as a returner and a wide receiver, he can be a great third receiver and a solid No. 2 for a lot of teams in the league.
Where He Could Go
St. Louis Rams. I don't see many great fits besides St. Louis. Unless they think Danny Amendola and Danario Alexander are going to do it for them, Laurent Robinson is very inconsistent. Jones is only 26 years old, so stacking him with Sam Bradford on the same team to grow together can benefit them down the road.
11. Laurent Robinson, St. Louis Rams
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Background
Robinson is another receiver who I don't know if I'll ever quite understand. He's only 25 years old, and he runs a 4.38 40-yard dash. I feel he has the killer instinct of a star and a crazy amount of potential that has yet to be unleashed. If he works on his tendency to succumb to injuries, I strongly feel he can become an important factor for whichever team lands him.
Where He Could Go
St. Louis. Odds are he will re-sign with the Rams. They like him, they want him and since they think he is due for a season without being ridden by injuries, that probably will not stop them.
Other areas he could land are with teams that are counting on development with young players; the Cleveland Browns could definitely be looking into Robinson, as well as the Miami Dolphins.
10. Steve Breaston, Arizona Cardinals
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Background
With a 1,000-yard receiving season under his belt, everyone knows Steve Breaston is good. He puts up good—not great—stats, but Kurt Warner and the 2008 Cardinals have shown he can be an important member of a team.
Where He Could Go
Breaston is a very underrated wide receiver, and I think a lot of teams will figure that out after the season. He will likely not be a Cardinal next year, so several teams could be looking into him. It's hard to predict exactly where he will land, but the Buffalo Bills, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears are a few of the frontrunners.
9. Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Background
Signing a 3-year deal as a rookie, Mike Sims-Walker will have his first opportunity to be something other than a Jaguar when the 2011 season comes around.
He puts up proficient numbers each year, but his team's success has not truly reflected that. However, he doesn't have to worry about finding a job. Whether the Jags sign him or not, Sims-Walker will always put up between 500-1000 yards per season.
Where He Could Go
Jacksonville. It's hard to imagine the Jaguars not re-signing him after the season. He doesn't negatively affect the franchise in any way, and he is just a good guy to have on the roster. Quarterback David Garrard loves having him and Mike Thomas as throwing targets.
8. Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers
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Background
Did you know Malcom Floyd is 6-foot-5 and runs a 4.4 40-yard dash? So, he has rare height, and he is fast. That should make him a good deep threat. He averaged 19.4 yards receiving this year and reeled in catches for 717 yards playing in the shadows of Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson when they were available to play.
Floyd is very talented, very built-to-be-great and will have an excellent future. You heard it here first, remember that.
Where He Could Go
I see two places he could end up:
San Diego. One of these places is with the Chargers because it's not always smart to deal fast, tall, athletic play-making receivers.
New York Jets. The other team, surprisingly enough, is Rex Ryan's New York Jets. This is circumstantial, though. If Holmes is re-signed, and Edwards does not return to the Jets, Floyd fits the physical description of Edwards and still has several good years in him.
7. Steve Smith, New York Giants
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Background
At only 25 years old, Steve Smith has great hands and has been a great safety blanket for Eli Manning on third down downs. But then Mario Manningham came around, performing like a No. 1 wide receiver. Hakeem Nicks is a No. 1 wide receiver. So where does that leave Smith?
Where He Could Go
Smith will probably not be re-signed to Giants because of Manningham's emergence. I say he goes to the Jets, if Holmes doesn't re-sign, or the Rams.
6. James Jones, Green Bay Packers
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Background
I now present to you, the best third receiver in the NFL. That's going to change soon, though.
I think James Jones is ready to be a No. 2 receiver, but Donald Driver still roams the tundra. He's 35 years old though and should be retiring soon. Driver has had a Hall-of-Fame career, but all great things come to an end; as his talents dissipate, Jones' talents will improve.
Where He Could Go
Green Bay. Calling it here, the Pack will re-sign Jones to a long-term deal, Driver will retire before 2014, and Jones will achieve stardom. Rodgers, Greg Jennings and Jones? Oh no.
5. Randy Moss, Tennessee Titans
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Background
This list wasn't all that hard to rank until I got up to Randy Moss, and there are two ways I could have looked at it:
The first is that he is unarguably a future Hall-of-Famer with some of the most impressive stats in league history. In 13 seasons, he's failed to receive for 1,000 yards only three times and still has 14,858 total receiving yards in his career. That's still 1,143 yards per season. If that's not impressive enough, he has averaged nearly 12 receiving touchdowns per season. There are infinitely many more ways I could mathematically rearrange his stats, but that's another topic.
I also could have ranked him for his 2010 output. He played on the Patriots, Vikings and Titans, and maybe it's just bad luck, but those teams were at their low points with Moss on the roster.
Where He Could Go
It's really very hard to predict where he could go. I don't think he'll be a Titan, Patriot or Viking. Some teams, like the Steelers, Packers, Jets, Chiefs, etc., just have absolutely no reason to acquire Moss. I don't think he'll go unsigned, though. Maybe a team like the Texans can sign him for cheap. The Bears are a decent fit, but I can't imagine Lovie Smith going for him.
4. Terrell Owens, Cincinnati Bengals
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Background
Not so much to say here. I could go off again listing his historical facts, but that is irrelevant. Owens is very similar to Moss, but he has one thing going for him: he is coming off a good season with 982 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. He would have undoubtedly reached the 1,000-yard mark if not for a season-ending injury.
Where He Could Go
Cincinnati. TO is 37 years old, and with his injury, I feel the Bengals are the only team that will still trust him to start every game for them.
3. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers
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Background
Vincent Jackson was an immature baby all season long, but then he finally signed a deal, dealt with his suspension and blew up to end the season. You would think San Diego should re-sign him in a second since Floyd may leave, but do they really want to keep dealing with Jackson's childish acts?
Where He Could Go
There is still a good chance he could go to the Chargers, and there haven't been any talks of other teams chiming in for him. If I had to throw some early predictions, the Jets do have inclinations to go for troubled players that are still good, but he could overrun their cap room. If TO is not a Bengal next year, he also could fit nicely in Cincinnati.
2. Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings
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Background
Sidney Rice is quite simply a beast. I predicted a Pro Bowl and All-Pro for him in 2010, but he got injured. He showed signs of greatness when he was in for a small part of the season, but Brett Favre was ailing big time.
In a way, I feel bad Rice's full potential hasn't been unleashed quite yet.
Where He Could Go
Minnesota. Vikes all the way. They're not about to let him go.
1. The NYJ Duo, Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes
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Background
Edwards and Holmes are just two more reasons why Rex Ryan is such a phenomenal head coach. They have crazy chemistry that is even better in the postseason. If one has a bad game, it means the other feeds off their performance, so it's never too detrimental to the team. Edwards is a big, athletic deep-threat that is hard to bring down, and Holmes is speedy, quick, smaller and makes acrobatic catches that are nearly humanly impossible.
Where They Could Go
First of all, I definitely think that at least one of the two will remain with the Jets next year. If they have the choice of one, they would probably have to go with Holmes because he has been their savior more often than not. If Edwards goes, the Chicago Bears seem to be the leading frontrunner for him.
Why would they have to pick one, you might ask. That would be getting more in-depth with the Jets' roster. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie and linebacker David Harris will also be free agents after the season, so they could run into cap room trouble. All four of these noted players are more valuable now than they were when they signed with the Jets, except maybe for Holmes, but what more could you expect from the kid?
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