AFC Score Sheet: Explaining Why the Steelers Will Beat the Jets 33-24
We've all seen the pundits and so called "experts" make their predictions on the weekend games during Sunday morning pregame shows. Some shows even predict a final score of each game, but don't really explain how they came to their conclusion.
I think this is lazy.
You ask your buddy who is going to win the game between the Steelers and the Jets this weekend and you'll get a predictable response. First he'll fold his arms across his chest, screw his face up in a strange expression that either indicates deep thought or intestinal discomfort, and then give you some arbitrary score his "gut feeling" led him to.
I have devised a scientific approach to predicting the outcome of games that will tell you the exact score and explains why in detail. The system uses a 0-4 point scale that is applied to each critical area or position for both teams as they score against this week's opponent.
It's called The Score Sheet and I ran this weekend's Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets game through it and here's what I got.
Factor #1: QB Pittsburgh 4, NY Jets 1
1 of 13
Break Down:
Mark Sanchez's 4-1 playoff record is not a result of his outstanding leadership and stellar quarterback play as much as it is due to his teams defense and ability to run the ball effectively. In his one playoff loss his team stumbled around the field for less than 3 yards per carry (86 yards total) and he was not able to even keep the game close against the Colts.
His impressive numbers last week against the Patriots were more an indication of New England's defensive shortcomings than Sanchez's coming of age. He earns one point for his team because he will probably continue his pattern of checking down to Dustin Keller and LT out of the backfield early, but if the Jets fall behind by more than 2 touchdowns, don't expect a big comeback out of this young quarterback.
Big Ben earns three points for his team because of his experience and winning reputation in the playoffs. His 9-2 playoff record has him ranked #2 all time in post-season winning percentage.
Ben can pick up the first downs throwing lasers to cutting receivers like Hines Ward, rolling out and flicking the ball to an open Heath Miller or Antonio Brown, going over the top for the big play to Mike Wallace or simply run for it himself.
He gives the Steelers a huge advantage in this game over the Jets.
Factor #2: RB Pittsburgh 3, NY Jets 2
2 of 13
Break Down:
More so than any other team playing this weekend, the Jets rely heavily on the running game for their success. New York averaged 162 yards per game in their 11 wins this year during the regular season, while in their 5 losses they averaged only 119. They ran for 106 yards in their week 15 game against Pittsburgh but still managed to win due to special teams and some critical drops late in the game.
The Jets have a couple of fine runners in LT and Shonn Greene but don't expect them to excel this weekend because the Steelers' dominating run defense has proven to be one of the greatest ever this year.
Rashard Mendenhall ran for 99 yards and one touchdown against New York this year and was able to balance Pittsburgh's offense by averaging nearly 6 yards per carry.
The Jets made defensive adjustments last week that worked on the Patriots but New England has no running back on their roster comparable to Rashard Mendenhall and that will be proven on the field this weekend.
Factor # 3: WR Pittsburgh 2, NY Jets 2
3 of 13
Break Down:
Both teams field impressive groups of receivers for this game. The two Super Bowl MVP's, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward, are established as proven performers in big games. Both can be relied upon by their quarterbacks in any situation to make a play when their team most needs it.
Braylon Edwards has stepped up his play this year and has done a good job as the second option in New York's aerial attack. Unfortunately, that attack is piloted by a young quarterback who likes to hand off and check down before trying to find a big play for his big play receivers.
Mike Wallace has cemented himself as a star in the league with the ability to score from anywhere on the field. The rest of both groups are pretty even. Cotchery and Smith are solid players but nothing dynamic as receivers. Antonio Brown made a name for himself after last week's monster catch from Roethlisberger on third and nineteen that sealed the victory for Pittsburgh and Emanual Sanders and Randle El round out a strong corps of receivers.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Factor #4: TE Pittsburgh 2, NY Jets 2
4 of 13
Break Down:
Last time these teams met the Steelers were without the services of one of their most consistent performers: Heath Miller.
The game came down to two plays that were not made by fill-in Matt Spaeth which Miller would have probably had success on. Miller is a pro-bowl player who can find the first down marker for Ben at critical times.
Dustin Keller has had a solid season catching balls from Mark Sanchez. While not dynamic, he will find holes in coverage and provides a nice safety valve for Sanchez when things start to break down.
Factor #5: OL Pittsburgh 1, NY Jets 3
5 of 13
Break Down:
The Steelers' Maurkice Pouncey is the only reason Pittsburgh earns even a one in this category. With last week's performance by Terrell Suggs, Steeler fans should be worried that Shaun Ellis and company will create the same problems as they did for Brady in the passing game.
If Flozell Adams has any lingering effects from last weeks illness, the Steelers are in for a long game and they would be wise to keep an extra offensive lineman active for this week's game, just in case.
Nick Mangold and D'Brickashaw Ferguson are two of the best young linemen in football but this isn't the Patriots front seven they will be facing. Look for the Jets' offensive line to give up some big sacks and find it difficult to create running lanes for LT and Greene.
They were able to protect Sanchez well the last time these teams met but with the blitzing Polamalu on the field, it could be a different story.
Factor #6: DL Pittsburgh 3, NY Jets 2
6 of 13
Break Down:
The Steelers won't have Aaron Smith back this week as he won't be ready to play unless the Steelers make it to the Super Bowl. Ziggy Hood has played well in Smith's absence and Brett Keisel stepped up his play to a pro-bowl level to make up for the loss.
Casey Hampton completes the package that anchored the best run defense the league has seen in years.
Shaun Ellis played like a man possessed last week, racking up two quarterback sacks and numerous pressures. Sione Pouha has done a good job of minimizing the effects of the injury to Kris Jenkins but this is hardly the strength of the Jets defense.
Factor #7: LB Pittsburgh 4, NY Jets 2
7 of 13
Break Down:
While the Jets have a solid LB corps led by Bart Scott and David Harris, there is no group of linebackers in the league that compares to the starting quartet in Pittsburgh.
Lawrence Timmons, Lamar Woodley, James Farrior and James Harrison form the strongest unit of players that will be on any field this weekend.
The group combined for 29.5 sacks this year, more than any other group of starters in the league, and when they aren't blitzing the passer they are blitzing the running lanes creating havoc for the opposing teams running game.
This group is New York's biggest problem to solve this weekend and I don't see Sanchez and company up to the task.
Factor #8: CB Pittsburgh 2, NY Jets 4
8 of 13
Break Down:
This is an easy one to score because the Jets have the best cornerback this league has seen since Champ Bailey was in his prime.
Darrell Revis can shut down the opposing teams best receiver and if there are no other options in the passing game, that could prove crippling. Add Antonio Cromartie's solid play this post season and Kyle Wilson's improvements and you have one of the best groups of corners in the league.
The Steelers have Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden and William Gay. As a whole, this group is nowhere near the Jets' but Ike Taylor is having a great season and his matchup with Santonio Holmes is intriguing for a couple of reasons.
First, Taylor can be a shut down player at the cornerback position. If you doubt that, ask the Ravens top receivers who combined for 1 catch for -1 yard last week against him.
Secondly, these two are great friends who hang out with one another in the off season. It will be interesting to see how tough Taylor plays 'Tone but I'd expect maximum effort even though they are friends.
McFadden has just played OK in coverage since returning to Pittsburgh from Arizona last year but he is a superior tackler. William Gay is nothing more than a nickel back and when he's on the field in crucial situations, look for the Jets to run plays at him. He may be the only liability on the Steelers entire defensive team.
Factor #9, S Pittsburgh 4, NY Jets 1
9 of 13
Break Down:
A major reason the Jets were able to go into Pittsburgh and win this season was that Troy Polamalu did not play in the game. He has played in Pittsburgh's last two matches and is expected to be on the field this weekend. Troy should be able to get into Sanchez's head with feigned blitzes and sneak attacks from the edge so expect even more short passes than ever by the Jets this weekend.
Ryan Clark was the defensive MVP of last week's win against Baltimore. He made two game changing plays and had his customary big hits to shake the receivers confidence and sense of well being.
While Eric Smith played better than anyone on the Jets defense last weekend, it is hard to give the New York group anything more than a one since Jim Leonhard went down with an injury.
Factor #10 Special Teams Pittsburgh 2, NY Jets 2
10 of 13
Break Down:
Will Brad Smith be 100% back from the injury that cost him last week's game against the hated Patriots? He is back at practice but the intensity of game day is a different story and even if he is on the field, at what level will he be able to perform?
He made the difference last time the Jets played the Steelers with his opening kickoff return for a touchdown so you can be sure Pittsburgh's special teams coach paid particular attention to him in preparations this week.
Steve Weatherford was uncharacteristically awful last week and Nick Folk made no fans by shanking a makeable field goal attempt but Shaun Suisham also was less than stellar for Pittsburgh when he missed a 43 yard attempt at the end of the first half.
The return tandom of Antonio Brown and Antwaan Randle El has made a few big plays this year but overall they are nothing that should scare the opponent.
Factor #11: Coaching Pittsburgh 3, NY Jets 2
11 of 13Break Down:
This is really a lost opportunity for the Steelers to pick up more points because of some of the calls Tomlin has made in past post seasons.
While Rex Ryan has never won the Super Bowl, he has made some great adjustments this post season against two of the greatest quarterbacks in the game.
Dick LeBeau is the reason this isn't a tie. His genius on the defensive side of the ball was finally recognized by the Hall of Fame and should be realized by Jet fans everywhere after this weekend.
Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin keeps making decisions that make me scratch my head. Namely the decision to throw the challenge flag on the opening kickoff last week to contest the spot of where the return man was tackled.
He ended up winning the challenge but at what price? Saving 15 yards on the opening kickoff? He had to again challenge a call later in the half that he lost (even though that was a good challenge) and was left with no challenges for the entire second half of what was destined to be a close game.
His decision to go for two in the post season game against Jacksonville or his conservative approach to ball control in that same game had me questioning his coaching abilities.
But he has won a Super Bowl and proven he can win the AFC Championship game, which is something Rex can't say.
Factor #12: Intangibles Pittsburgh 3, NY Jets 1
12 of 13
Break Down:
Main factor here is the fact that the Steelers are playing at home and they come into the game relatively well rested and healthy.
Pittsburgh came out of last week's game without taking a beating because it wasn't as vicious of a battle as the Ravens players were leading us all to believe it was going to be.
This will be the Jets third straight road game against a tough team. There has to be some let down after that big win in New England last week as the Jets players expended a lot of energy playing and talking against the Patriots.
A huge weight was lifted off their shoulders when they won that game but getting back up for this week's game could be hard to do against a tough Pittsburgh team.
Also since the Steelers played on Saturday last week they benefited from an extra day off to recover and prepare for the Jets while New York played late Sunday.
A matter of an extra 28 hours may seem trivial but ask an NFL player how their bodies feel this time of the year and I'm sure most of the time you'll learn that extra day means a lot.
That Sums It Up.
13 of 13
There you go. Add up the damage and you get a final score of Pittsburgh 33, Jets 24.
Finally, a prediction with a final score and a detailed breakdown of how it was derived.
Even if I did understand it, The Score Sheet is based on an algorithm that is too complicated to explain here but let me say I will be taking these results to Vegas (or an online agent stationed somewhere in the Caribbean) and betting my life savings on this result.
Regardless of the fact that I failed college math three times, I am confident in my system and am willing to wager my $13.65 nest egg on it's accuracy.
I don't, however, advise any of you to do the same.
Now I need to get back to work before my boss realizes I've just wasted 3 hours of company time writing this article. God bless America, baby.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")