AFC Championship Game: New York Jets Will Soar Through Pittsburgh into Dallas

We’re down to the final four NFL teams, folks!  First, we’re going to revisit a match-up from 2004.

These two teams met in the AFC Divisional round back then, with the losing team exiting primarily due to shoddy special teams play and old-fashioned bad luck.  Time has since passed, and both teams have changed.

This is Jets vs. Steelers!

Record

Since we’ve already broken down the records for both teams in previous articles, I’m going to keep this part short.  Instead of breaking down the schedule game by game, the focus will be on wins against contenders.  Let’s start with the Steelers.

As I mentioned last week, the Steelers finished the season 12-4.  This was good enough to clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC.  Of those 12 wins, only four came against teams that contended for a playoff spot throughout the season: the Baltimore Ravens, the Atlanta Falcons, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Oakland Raiders.

Now let’s look at the four losses.  All came against teams that made the playoffs: the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens, the New Orleans Saints and the team they will face on Sunday, the New York Jets.

Let’s analyze that game.

In Week 15, the Jets made a trip to Heinz Field and came back from a 17-10 deficit to defeat the Steelers 22-17.  I know that naysayers out there will go on and on about how this loss was a fluke because the Steelers didn’t have Troy Polamalu on defense, but did that really make a difference? 

Throughout most of the game, the Steelers defense controlled the game against a young and hungry Jets offense.  On offensive stats alone, the Steelers should have won the game against a team that all season, ended up with only two regular season wins against top contenders.  This past week, the Steelers defense showed how dangerous it truly is in the team’s incredible comeback victory against Baltimore.

Still, that doesn’t take away from the fact that Troy Polamalu is playing hurt and just looks slower than usual.  With the injury factor and the raw talent of these two teams, it’s too close to call on this front.

Edge: Even

Quarterback

I’m going to be honest.  Despite fairly modest stats, Mark Sanchez is proving to be one of the better playoff quarterbacks in NFL history.  He doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring just yet, but he has already accomplished in two seasons what most elite quarterbacks took at least five (or more) seasons to do.

He’s playing in his second AFC Championship game.  Even more amazing, he’s defeated the two best quarterbacks in the NFL in getting there.  He has another hurdle to clear this weekend in two-time Super Bowl winner—Big Ben Roethlisberger.

As I said last week, Roethlisberger had a great season despite being suspended for the first four games.  Last weekend against Baltimore, he had another good game as he went 19 of 32 for 226 yards and two touchdowns against a powerful Baltimore defense.  He had similar stats in Week 15 against the Jets although not as accurate, when he went 23 of 44 for 264 yards and one touchdown.

Sanchez has done just as well in the playoffs.  After most people wrote him off as a young and inexperienced quarterback prone to interceptions, the second year man out of USC has silenced his critics as he as only thrown one interception this postseason, as well as three touchdowns!

In the Week 15 game, he went 19 of 29 for only 170 yards, but ran for what turned out to be the game-winning touchdown.  It was later learned that he had been playing for much of the season with a shoulder injury, but that appears to be a non-factor now.  Either way, Sanchez has proven himself to be a force in the pocket.

Still, despite his playoff success his first two seasons, Mark Sanchez is still young and learning.  On Sunday, he’s going against a quarterback who has spent a majority of his career in the postseason, winning two Super Bowls in the process.

Thus, on experience alone, Big Ben wins this round.

Edge: Steelers

Running Game

You can say all you want about the Steel Curtain, the Jets defense, Big Ben, etc., but this writer thinks that the game is going to be decided by one factor: the running game.

On the Steelers, there’s Rashard Mendenhall.

Despite having two rushing touchdowns against the Ravens last weekend, I’m not going to give him the edge on this just yet.  He only had 46 yards on 20 carries, and both of his touchdown runs were short, one and two yards respectively.

With the NFL’s third best rushing defense all over him, I expect his numbers to be lower.

The Jets, as I said last week, have more options with running the ball.  LaDainian Tomlinson, who had a great comeback season in 2010 and despite putting up only 43 yards against New England last weekend, is dangerous.

Also, what the Jets will have this weekend that they didn’t have against New England is their Wildcat option, led by kick return threat and former Missouri quarterback Brad Smith.  With Smith healthy again, expect the Wildcat formation to be back at full force.

Yet, I believe that the X-factor in the Jets running game will be second-year runner Shonn Greene.  Last weekend, Greene made short work of the New England defense as he ran for 76 yards and a touchdown.

Plus, he’s also out to make a point.

In last year’s AFC Championship Game against Indianapolis, Greene missed most of the action with an injury, only accumulating 41 yards after rushing for 135 and 128 the previous two postseason games.  This time, he’s out for redemption and even though he’s facing the top-ranked rushing defense in the NFL, a strong offensive line and his fellow runners will make sure he gets it.

Edge: Jets

Passing Offense

This postseason, the Jets’ receiving game has been nothing short of unbelievable.  Miraculous catches by Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes, as well as great pass protection and lock-down defense, have carried this team to another AFC Championship Game.

Still, the Steelers are just as dangerous on the receiving end.

Hines Ward is a great possession receiver and can still go deep, and Mike Wallace is definitely the deep threat despite only catching three passes for 20 yards last weekend.  Even Emmanuel Sanders is proving to be a tough man to cover.  At tight end, Heath Miller continues to get the job done.

However, let’s not give this to the Steelers just yet.

Sure, they just beat one of the top defenses in the NFL but let’s not forget that while great, the Baltimore defense is pretty old.  That being said, the Jets secondary is going to be all over the Pittsburgh receivers, making it tough for Big Ben.

Despite all of the factors that might be against them, though, I still have to give the Steelers receivers their due credit.  They’ve been playing together for a while now and know how to communicate, even in the toughest of games.  Against a feisty Jets defense, they should be able to hold their own.

Edge: Steelers

Defense

This match-up here is simply one for the ages.

We have Pittsburgh’s second ranked defense going up against that of the Jets, which was ranked third.  There’s only one way to break these two squads down—let’s see how they did last weekend in their match-ups.

Against Baltimore, Pittsburgh’s defense got off to a bit of a rocky start, quickly letting the offense build up a 21-7 deficit.  Still, that doesn’t take away from the fact that they were able to accumulate five sacks against a young and inconsistent offensive line that let Joe Flacco get sacked 40 times during the regular season.

When the Jets come to town, Pittsburgh won’t have such an easy time.

Regarded as one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, if not the best, the Jets pass protection was impeccable throughout the season as Mark Sanchez only got sacked 27 times.  That’s five less sacks than the Pittsburgh o-line allowed Roethlisberger, who went down 32 times.

And he missed four games!

On top of that, the Ravens were able to sack Roethlisberger six times last weekend, forcing one fumble.  In Week 15, the Jets sacked Roethlisberger three times (compared to the one sack Sanchez’s line allowed), forcing two fumbles!

Needless to say, these two defenses are extremely evenly matched.

Both Mike Tomlin and Rex Ryan employ a 3-4 formation, and both coaches have players on their squads who can change games with one tackle or interception.  The Steelers have experience on their side, while the Jets are mostly youth yet have experienced veterans guiding the young guns.

I’m anticipating this game to be decided not only by running game, but also which defense answers the bell.  At this point, it’s way too close to call.

Edge: Even

So, there’s my analysis of the AFC Championship Game.

This is a grudge match going back to 2004, and I have a feeling that Doug Brien’s missed field goals will be a thing of the past.  I know that Nick Folk has a history of missing clutch kicks, but remember that he’s already won a key game this postseason!  That being said, here comes my score prediction:

Score Prediction: Jets 23, Steelers 20, in a squeaker